NBA DPOY Outlook: Wembanyama, Daniels, Draymond, Holmgren, and More

Defensive Player of the Year discussion doesn’t really heat up until the second half of the regular season. Bettors are still keeping a close eye on the markets at this stage of the campaign, and it’s always worth reflecting on which players actually have a shot at the award.

Even when there seems to be an overwhelming favorite, the 2024-25 season is a reminder of how quickly things can change. Because of the games played requirement, it only takes a short absence for a contender to fall out of the race.

Here’s how our ballot would look if the season ended today:

1. Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama’s calf injury shouldn’t take him below the 65-game threshold. As long as he’s eligible for this award, he’s going to be the clear favorite.

His 4.7 stocks per game are miles ahead of anyone else. San Antonio is fifth overall in defense, and their rating with Wembanyama on the floor would be the second-best in the Association.

Opponents are terrified of going to the basket when Wemby is on the floor. He looms over driving opponents, his arms eliminating any routes to get the ball to the glass. That length means he can afford to lose ground when switched onto the perimeter, and it’s rare anyone blows by him to get a clear shot off.

Set to miss a few weeks with this calf issue, our next DPOY rankings are likely to have a change at the top. Wembanyama has little margin for error over the remainder of the season if he is to finally win an award he’s been fancied for in each of his first two seasons.

2. Dyson Daniels

The question of how the Hawks’ defense would look without Trae Young is being answered. Atlanta is sixth in defensive rating and third in adjusted shot quality allowed.

Daniels’ steal and block numbers aren’t as gaudy as last season, but he has been a much better on-ball defender and ranks second in deflections behind Ryan Rollins.

Opponents run far less in transition with Daniels’ length closing passing windows. The way he harasses primary ball handlers has also helped cut down opponent three-point efficiency on above-the-break attempts.

Atlanta does a great job of limiting opponent three-point volume, and a lot of that comes from Daniels staying in front of his man and not needing help from the back line.

3. Draymond Green

Golden State has a 106.7 defensive rating with Draymond Green on the floor. Green ranks second only to Alex Caruso in defensive estimated plus-minus, per Dunks and Threes.

The former Defensive Player of the Year was the betting favorite after Wembanyama was ruled out last season but ultimately lost out to Evan Mobley. It is a huge ask for a player in his age-35 season to play enough games to win this award, and an even bigger ask to maintain this level of defensive intensity for 65 or more games.

If anyone can do it, it is Green. He has already put together several marquee performances and has led the Warriors to the sixth-best expected shot quality allowed.

4. Chet Holmgren

Third in deflections on an elite defense, Ausar Thompson is taking a real leap. Only five players have a better defensive estimated plus-minus, and six starters have a higher steal rate.

Thompson’s on-off numbers would look much better if it were not for some unfortunately hot perimeter shooting from opponents while he has been on the floor.

His presence in the restricted area has been a major factor in Detroit’s elite rim protection. Rudy Gobert, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. are the only forwards or centers allowing lower field-goal percentages inside six feet.

It is not far-fetched to pick Thompson as DPOY if Wembanyama misses time. There is a very realistic scenario where both twins finish in the top five.

5. Chet Holmgren

The Thunder’s defense was historic last season. It has been even better so far this year, with a defensive rating 6.2 points better than any other team. OKC is giving up just 100.4 points per 100 possessions with Chet Holmgren on the floor.

Putting Holmgren fifth is not a criticism of his play, even though his 1.9 stocks per game is a noticeable drop from last season.

This ranking is more about the overall defensive talent on the Thunder. Holmgren is OKC’s best defender, but six of his teammates are in the 96th percentile or better in defensive estimated plus-minus.

As great as Holmgren is, he is not as essential to his team as any of the four players above him in these rankings. He needs to put up Wemby-level block numbers to have a real case for the award.

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