Another split week for the Campus Card as we go 2-2 once again. The Aggies made light work of the Missouri Tigers to hold their Top 5 spot in the polls, and the LSU-Alabama matchup stayed well below the 49.5 O/U line, with Alabama winning 20-9. Unfortunately, Duke not only failed to cover the spread but lost by three to UConn after giving up a fourth-quarter lead. And we went with the O/U instead of the Iowa spread in the Hawkeyes-Ducks game, which we now regret. The matchup ended 18-16 Ducks, missing the 40.5 over bet, but Iowa did cover the +6.5 spread. We listened to our gut, just not enough for it to work out.
This week, we’re backing a team we hesitated on last week, putting faith in one of the nation’s best offenses to cover a big number, and taking the under in a lopsided matchup between two defensive-minded teams.
For our gut check, we’re going big with the favorite in a Top 10 showdown, expecting one defense to completely take over. Let’s take a full look at this week’s card.
Best Moneyline Bet: Iowa Hawkeyes (+215 at USC Trojans)
We had a feeling the Hawkeyes could hang with Oregon, and they proved us right. Now, listed as underdogs against the 17th-ranked USC Trojans, Iowa feels like a great bet for an upset.
This team showed its toughness last week, and their gritty style fits perfectly against USC. If QB Mark Gronowski continues to play like the seasoned veteran he is, and the Hawkeyes defense can stifle the Trojans the way they did Oregon, they have a real shot to take this one in Southern California.
Best Spread Bet: North Texas Mean Green (-17.5 at UAB Blazers)
North Texas sits at 8-1 with one of the highest-scoring offenses in college football. Despite having a shaky defense, they score so easily that it rarely matters.
Even though this spread is large, it’s the perfect setup for the Mean Green. UAB is 1-5 in its last six games, and this line would have been covered in four of those five losses. The Blazers don’t defend well, their offense can’t sustain drives, and that combination makes this a strong value play for North Texas.
Best Over/Under Bet: Michigan at Northwestern (Under 41.5)
Neither team lights up the scoreboard, and while this is a low total, it fits the matchup. Michigan can score, but even against lesser opponents, they haven’t been explosive outside of their game against Central Michigan.
Northwestern, meanwhile, has scored more than 20 points in only four of nine games this year, and two of those were 21 and 22 points. Against Michigan, a shutout isn’t out of the question, so the under feels safer than it looks.
Gut Check Bet: Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5 vs Texas Longhorns)
It’s a Top 10 battle between two powerhouse programs, but I’ve got a feeling this one won’t be close.
Texas has shown real growth lately, with Arch Manning starting to look like a legit college starter. But Georgia is a different kind of beast. While Texas’ wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma show progress, this Bulldogs defense is on another level. My gut says Georgia will pressure Manning all game and win by at least 10.
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