There are multiple options for Game of the Week, including Alabama vs. Oklahoma and College Gameday’s Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh. But the real marquee matchup is Georgia vs. Texas. It is one of only four games featuring two CFP top-25 teams and the only one with both ranked in the top 10.
These teams met twice last year, once in the regular season and again in the SEC Championship Game, with Georgia winning both. This time, however, Texas has a surging Arch Manning. After 10 weeks, he is finally playing at the level everyone expected, and he looks like a true star. It may feel like Georgia is miles better because of Texas’s early-season struggles, but these teams are closer than they appear. Both feature elite defenses and second-year quarterbacks.
Georgia’s Keys to Victory
To beat Texas, Georgia needs to pressure Arch Manning and keep him in the pocket. He may be the only Manning who can truly run, and he will look to extend plays and drives with his legs. Sacks have been a problem for the Texas offensive line, but also for Georgia’s defense. The Bulldogs have only 11 sacks this season, so they will need to win their battles and get to Manning quickly.
Georgia also needs to tackle Texas’ receivers in space. That might sound obvious, but the Longhorns have started each of their last two games with the same play to the same receiver: an orbit motion to Ryan Wingo with two blockers in front. One went for a 60-yard gain, the other for a touchdown. Georgia must recognize it early and make those tackles in the open field.
Texas’s Keys to Victory
Both lines need to play well. Georgia is averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game, so Texas’s defensive front must hold up. That matchup will be strength vs. strength, as Texas allows just 78 rushing yards per game. On offense, the line must give Arch time to throw. When he had a clean pocket against Vanderbilt, he was not sacked once and threw for 328 yards and three touchdowns.
Texas also needs to get Ryan Wingo involved early and often. He injured his thumb in the first quarter against Vanderbilt but is expected to play this weekend. Wingo is the key to this offense because of his speed and ability to open things up for others, even when he does not have the ball.
Spread
Georgia is the better team, and the oddsmakers agree. The Bulldogs are favored by 5.5 points at home, and that line should hold fairly steady until kickoff. Georgia deserves to be favored, especially at Sanford Stadium. Texas is dangerous, but this matchup feels like a “Georgia by 10” kind of game. Expect the Bulldogs to control most of the night and pull away late.
Over/Under
The total is set at 48.5, which feels low. Georgia and Texas rank fourth and fifth in the SEC in total defense, allowing 311 and 314 yards per game, respectively. The under would have hit in both of their meetings last year, when they combined for 45 and 41 points. But Georgia’s offense looks sharper this year, and Texas is starting to click with Arch under center, so I expect the total to go over.
A few player props also stand out. Gunner Stockton’s passing total is set at 219.5 yards, and I like the over. In Georgia’s loss to Alabama, he threw for only 130 yards and one touchdown, so a stronger passing performance will be a priority for OC Mike Bobo and likely a key to a Bulldogs’ win.
For Texas, I lean toward the under on Arch Manning’s passing line of 220.5 yards. He has topped that number in only five of his nine games this year, and Georgia’s secondary should make it tough for him to get there.
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