Last Week: 3-2
Season Record: 30-28-2
We have now posted three straight winning weeks, going 10-5 in that stretch. The middle and end of the season always seem a little easier to pick because there is so much more data to sift through. We saw a similar trend last year as well.
We were way off on Georgia Tech, but only a touchdown away from covering the big IU spread, so we feel confident that our research and trend tracking are moving in the right direction.
This week, there are only two matchups between ranked teams, and we are picking one of them. Similar to last week, we are also leaning toward favorites, with four of them on our card.
And in a strange coincidence that I didn’t even notice until publishing this, all five of our picks feature teams with either .500 records or winning records against the spread this season. Hopefully they keep those trends moving in the right direction.
Tulsa @ Army (-9.5)
Tulsa is not good. They are 3-7, and their only win against a team with a winning record came way back in Week 1 against FCS Abilene Christian. In their three losses against teams with winning records, they were outscored 117-48.
They are also just 1-4 on the road this season, with their only away win coming against 1-9 Oklahoma State by seven points. In addition, Tulsa ranks in the bottom third nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Against the run, they have been awful, ranking 103rd out of 136 FBS teams.
Now they have to travel to West Point to take on a very good Army team. The Black Knights’ 5-4 record might not look impressive on the surface, but two of those losses came on the road at 7-3 East Carolina and 8-2 Tulane. They also dropped a tight one at home to No. 23 North Texas, 45-38.
Their only real blemish was that strange Week 1 home loss to FCS Tarleton State, 30-27. But Tarleton has turned out to be no joke, sitting at 10-1 and ranked fifth in all of FCS football.
Army owns the fourth-best rushing attack in the country, averaging nearly 260 yards per game on the ground. Tulsa already struggles against the run, and now they are facing one of the best rushing offenses where they will have a tough time containing the Black Knights. For good measure, Army also ranks 32nd nationally in total defense, so they should be able to limit Tulsa without much trouble.
I like Army to win by two touchdowns, so giving up ten does not scare me at all and brings decent value.
The Pick: Army -9.5
Miami (-17) @ Virginia Tech
I feel like Miami is being overlooked as we get closer to the final FCS rankings. While they probably don’t have a shot to win the ACC any longer, they are the conference’s only real hope for an at-large bid, and honestly, I think they will and should get one. But they need to keep winning and making statements every game, which works in our favor when taking them as a hefty favorite.
Their only two losses were to 7-3 SMU in overtime on the road and 7-3 Louisville, both solid teams. They also boast an impressive win against 8-2 Notre Dame and are fresh off of a 41-7 demolition of North Carolina State. In their four games against teams with losing records this season, they beat those opponents by a combined score of 151-27, with the smallest margin being 19 against Florida. All of that is to say, they handily beat the teams they are supposed to, and Virginia Tech is not a good team.
The Hokies are 3-7, and while they have played a bit better under interim head coach Philip Montgomery, there are still plenty of issues with this team. They rank in the bottom half nationally in both total offense and total defense, and they average more than seven penalties per game, which shows a lack of discipline.
While Miami’s offense has had its ups and downs, they still have Carson Beck, plenty of weapons, and the ability to sling it around, ranking 32nd nationally in passing offense. Virginia Tech’s pass defense is subpar and should be exploited. On the other side, Miami has a top-10 defense and should shut down anything the Hokies try to do.
Miami’s back is against the wall. They know they have to win out, and not just win but dominate to make a statement. They will win this one going away, even in Blacksburg, so we’ll lay the points in this contest.
The Pick: Miami -17
Missouri (+8.5) @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma just notched one of the more impressive wins of the season, going into Tuscaloosa on Saturday night and leaving with a 23-21 victory. Their defense is one of the best in the nation, especially against the run, and while QB John Mateer hasn’t been quite the star people expected earlier in the season, he has been a great field general who keeps leading this team to important wins.
They won’t make the SEC Championship Game, but if they win out against Missouri and LSU, they are a near lock to make the CFP. I do think they will win this game against Missouri, but this is too many points.
I believe Missouri QB Beau Pribula will be back for this game, as all signs are pointing that way. But even without him, I like this line. Oklahoma is coming off a very emotional win against Alabama, and four of their last five games have come against Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Alabama. Those kinds of games take a physical toll on any team.
Despite some recent injuries, Missouri has played tough. Their three losses have come against Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M, all ranked teams. Their only double-digit loss was the 38-17 defeat to A&M a couple of weeks ago when Pribula got injured. Backup QB Matt Zollers filled in admirably last week as the Tigers bounced back and beat Mississippi State by 22 points.
A big reason for that win was RB Ahmad Hardy, who ran for 300 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Hardy leads the nation in rushing yards and ranks third nationally in rushing touchdowns. Even against a great defense like Oklahoma’s, Hardy will get his yards, help move the chains, and shorten the game.
On the other side of the ball, Missouri has been phenomenal on defense. They rank in the top 10 in yards allowed and are strong against both the run and the pass. I think they slow the Sooners down enough to keep this one close.
While I hope Pribula can get back to stretch the field with his arm, I like the Tigers to keep this game close regardless, and maybe even sniff the upset as the game winds down.
The Pick: Missouri +8.5
Illinois (-8.5) @ Wisconsin
We took Indiana last week, giving a giant number against Wisconsin, and came up just a little short. We’re going back to the well with this one, now willing to give single digits to one of the worst offensive FBS teams in the nation.
To put into perspective how bad the Badgers are offensively, let this sink in: only 0-10 UMass averages fewer yards per game and fewer points per game than Wisconsin this year.
Their defense is solid, and they are back home at Camp Randall, but Illinois is a very good team. The Illini are 7-3, with their only losses coming to Ohio State, Washington, and Indiana. They also boast an impressive win over 8-2 USC.
While Wisconsin’s overall defense is decent, they are much worse against the pass, and I expect QB Luke Altmeyer to be able to move the ball enough to put points on the board.
Illinois’ defense is only average, but they don’t need to be better than that to stop this putrid Badger attack. Even in Madison, I love this line. Any chance we get to give single digits to a bad team like Wisconsin, we will gladly take advantage of it.
The Pick: Illinois -8.5
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech (-3)
Call us stubborn, but we’re doubling down on the Yellow Jackets this week despite their close call at Boston College.
They are now back at home, and I think that close win, coming just one week after their first loss of the season, will be a giant wake-up call. Head coach Brent Key knows this team must keep winning to make the CFP, and it is certainly within their reach.
Pittsburgh may have a nice-looking record at 7-3, but Notre Dame exposed them for being the fraud they are. Their only win against an FBS team with a winning record is against 6-4 MAC member Central Michigan. The rest of their wins have been smoke and mirrors against average teams, and despite the sluggishness the last few weeks, Georgia Tech is a very good team.
Pitt freshman QB Mason Heintschel struggled when the pressure got tight, and I expect the same in Atlanta in a high visibility game with big stakes, as Pitt also must win to keep its ACC and CFP hopes alive.
Georgia Tech has a top 10 rushing offense, and while Pitt has typically done well against the run, they just gave up 175 rushing yards to the Irish. Georgia Tech can also pass it well with QB Haynes King, and I expect that is where they will focus on Saturday and try to exploit this porous Pitt pass defense.
I continue to have faith in what Georgia Tech did through the first eight games of the season, not the last two. I believe they are simply the better team in this matchup. At home, with their backs against the wall, I like them to win and have no issue laying this small number.
The Pick: Georgia Tech -3
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