Last Week: 3-2
Season Record: 27-26-2
We were a ½ point away from posting our second straight 4-1 week, but LSU came up short and lost by 11. No sour grapes though because those close calls are part of the grind over a long season. We will gladly take a 3-2 week, which puts us above .500 for the year and ready to keep the momentum rolling.
This week’s slate does not feature many marquee matchups, but there is definitely a trend on our card. We have one underdog and four favorites, and not just favorites but big favorites. The smallest line among our games this week is 16.5 points, so we are not expecting many close ones.
We do love one big dog, though, so let’s start there.
South Carolina (+19.5) @ Texas A&M
Let’s get this out of the way up front: A&M is by far the better team and will win this game. They are top 20 in both total offense and defense, sit 9-0, and are poised for the SEC Championship Game and an almost certain lock for a CFP bid.
A&M is superior in every way over the Gamecocks. That said, this is just too many points. South Carolina still boasts one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the nation in LaNorris Sellers, and while their rushing attack is abysmal, their passing game is actually above average. Because South Carolina will likely be playing from behind, I expect plenty of passing from Sellers and company on Saturday, which should work in our favor.
While A&M has been impressive, South Carolina’s six losses have all come against ranked teams at the time of kickoff (Vanderbilt, Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ole Miss). LSU is the only one of those currently not ranked, so the Gamecocks have faced a very tough schedule. Only one of those losses has been by more than the 19.5 points South Carolina is getting in this game. They have been losing, but they’ve been competitive in almost every defeat.
I also like that the Gamecocks are coming off a much-needed bye week to rest and reset, while A&M has just endured a tough stretch at Arkansas, at LSU, and at Missouri. Shane Beamer’s squad will not win this game and will not go bowling this year, but they would love to play spoiler against a top-three team. Expect South Carolina to bring it strong, stay competitive throughout, and cover this bloated spread.
The Pick: South Carolina +19.5
Minnesota @ Oregon (-25.5)
Our first big number of the weekend, but there are more coming. Minnesota is 6-3, but their résumé is far from impressive. Their only truly solid win came at home against Nebraska. In their three road games this season, they have been blown out each time. They lost by 13 at 6-4 California, by 39 at Ohio State, and by 38 at Iowa.
Now they travel to 8-1 Oregon and have to deal with Eugene on a Friday night, just a week after the Ducks survived a scare in Iowa City. Dan Lanning’s team will not let another game be close, especially not in the comfy confines of Autzen.
Minnesota has a decent defense, but their offense ranks tenth worst in the nation. They now face the number two defense in the country, and it will not be pretty. The Golden Gophers are going to have a long night trying to move the ball.
On the flip side, Oregon also has a top ten offense. Even against an above-average defense, the Ducks will not have any trouble putting up points. Oregon knows they are in the playoff if they take care of business in their remaining three games, and they will. It is a big line, but do not sweat it and take the Ducks.
The Pick: Oregon -25.5
Wisconsin @ Indiana (-29.5)
Another giant line in a Big Ten game between a bad team and a great one that just survived a scare on the road.
Francisco Mendoza kept his Heisman hopes alive by engineering one of the best drives of the season, bringing the Hoosiers back from a late deficit to escape Happy Valley with a three-point win.
Their Big Ten Championship hopes and CFP berth are right in reach with only Wisconsin and Purdue left on the schedule. Head coach Curt Cignetti will want his team to get back to its dominating ways heading into the postseason, and Wisconsin will be their first punching bag.
Despite somehow pulling out a win on Saturday against Washington, Wisconsin is a bad football team. They rank third worst in the nation in total offense and are easily the weakest Power Four team when it comes to moving the ball and scoring points. Their defense has kept them competitive, but they have not faced a team as explosive as Indiana, which averages 41.3 points per game, second best in the country.
The Hoosiers were held somewhat in check in State College, and they will be eager to get back on track at home. Wisconsin will be lucky to score ten points, and Indiana should have no trouble hitting its average, so this is another big line that does not scare me.
The Pick: Indiana -29.5
Georgia Tech (-16.5) @ Boston College
It is not in the twenties, but we have another lopsided spread we absolutely love. Last week we took SMU at Boston College giving 10.5, and they won by 32. Now the Eagles welcome in a fired-up Georgia Tech team that just suffered its first loss of the season at NC State, and the Yellow Jackets will come in looking to make a statement against the hapless Eagles.
All the same things we said about BC last week still apply. They have now lost nine straight games, with their only win coming in Week 1 against 1-9 FCS Fordham. Over their last six losses, the closest margin was 14 points and the average margin of defeat has been 25. The Eagles still rank near the bottom nationally on both sides of the ball, sitting in the bottom quarter in total offense and bottom five in total defense. Simply put, they are one of the worst teams in Power Four football right now.
Georgia Tech may have lost last week at NC State, but this is still a very good team with plenty left to play for. The Yellow Jackets still have a shot at the ACC title game and a path to the CFP. Quarterback Haynes King is a legit dual threat and a strong leader, and he will have his team ready to roll in Chestnut Hill. Similar to my surprise at the SMU line last week, I think 16.5 is nowhere near enough, especially against this motivated Georgia Tech team that will come out firing.
The Pick: Georgia Tech -16.5
UTSA (-18.5) @ Charlotte
And finally, another big line. This one is less about how good UTSA is and more about how truly awful Charlotte has been. The 49ers might be the single worst team in the country. They are 1-8, with their only win coming against FCS Monmouth back in Week 3. Like Boston College, they are not just losing, they are getting destroyed. In their eight losses, the average margin of defeat has been 39-12. They rank in the bottom ten nationally in both total offense and defense and are a complete mess, even at home.
Now, the UTSA Roadrunners are not world beaters, but they are a solid, capable team that should go bowling this season. Their offense is above average, and while the defense has some holes, it will not matter against this pitiful Charlotte squad. Only one of UTSA’s five losses has come against a team with a losing record, and three of those losses were to Texas A&M, North Texas, and South Florida, teams with a combined 24-3 record. And just two weeks ago, UTSA beat 7-2 Tulane by 22 points, so they clearly have some game.
Head coach Jeff Traylor is one of the best in the Group of Five and knows his team needs two more wins to reach bowl eligibility. He will make sure the gas pedal stays down in this one. The 49ers are horrendous, and even with this large spread, I have no concerns about laying the points.
The Pick: UTSA -18.5
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