After our first losing week since September, we bounced back in style with a perfect 3-0 run as the Lions, Rams, and Chargers all covered as favorites.
We’ve now hit 60% of our plays this season and are looking to keep the momentum rolling. Let’s dive into three more picks we really like this week.
Last Week 3-0
Season YTD: 18-12
Bears @ Vikings (-3)
Chicago has to be the worst 6-3 team in the league. Kudos to Ben Johnson in his first year as head coach for turning things around in the Windy City, getting Caleb Williams to look like a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, and instilling a culture that manufactures wins against teams they should beat.
However, let’s dive deeper into those six wins. They’ve come against Dallas, Las Vegas, Washington, New Orleans, Cincinnati, and the New York Giants. Collectively, those teams have a 15-43-1 record, and none of them have more than three wins. Said another way, the Bears have been beating bad teams, and four of those wins were decided by five points or fewer.
Not that the Vikings should start booking Super Bowl tickets, but with quarterback J.J. McCarthy back, this team is capable of stacking wins and making a late playoff push. There are no moral victories in the NFL, but they kept it close in Baltimore against a rejuvenated Ravens team that looks much better than it did early in the season. That came just one week after Minnesota’s road win in Detroit. McCarthy still has a learning curve and will make mistakes, but it was encouraging to see him throw for almost 250 yards last week, his highest total so far in his young pro career.
The Vikings won this matchup in Chicago by three to start the season. There’s nothing to suggest they can’t win by at least that much again, especially at home and with a healthier roster.
The Pick: Vikings -3
Bengals (+5.5) @ Steelers
The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the league, and nothing I write will change that. But they also have the league’s number one rated offense over the past three weeks, averaging 454 yards and 38 points per game during that stretch. Joe Flacco looks 10 years younger, and with weapons like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown, this offense can put up points on anyone.
Last week one of my best bets was the Chargers -2.5 against the Steelers, and I called out how Pittsburgh might be one of the biggest frauds of the season. They rank in the bottom five in both offense and defense and have been winning games with turnovers and mostly smoke and mirrors.
When these teams met three weeks ago in Cincinnati, the Bengals won 33-31. Yes, this game is in Pittsburgh, and I actually think the Steelers probably win it outright. But with Cincinnati coming off a much-needed bye and the Steelers returning from a cross-country Sunday night game, I think this spread is too high. I like the Bengals getting the points here.
Pick: Bengals +5.5
Texans (-6.5) @ Titans
The Titans are terrible, and the fact that they aren’t getting at least double digits here comes down to two things: they’re playing at home, and they’re facing the Texans’ backup quarterback, Davis Mills, who has been subpar for most of his career. That said, Mills stepped up nicely last week against the Jaguars, helping Houston erase a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit.
He threw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns and filled in admirably for the injured C.J. Stroud. There’s nothing to suggest he can’t do the same against an equally weak defense in Tennessee.
The Titans rank near the bottom of the league defensively, and Mills should again find success through the air. On the other side, the Texans have the number one defense in football, and they get to feast on rookie quarterback Cam Ward and the single worst offense in the NFL this season. Mismatch, anyone? Expect plenty of sacks, a few turnovers, and a game that Houston dominates from start to finish.
The Titans have lost eight games this season, and not one of those losses has been within this spread. Only twice have they lost by single digits, and their average margin of defeat sits at 16 points per game. The Texans win this one going away, so giving fewer than a touchdown is something we’ll gladly do.
The Pick: Texans -6.5
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop
Author
