Bet the House: Alabama -3.5 vs Purdue

Last week’s Bet the House barely survived, squeaking out a win when Arkansas covered the 3.5-point spread against Michigan State by just a half point. While this week’s focus is Alabama versus Purdue, we need to talk about Arkansas for a minute.

The Razorbacks are one of the most talented teams in the country, but their performance against Michigan State was disappointing, mostly due to coaching. John Calipari is one of the greatest recruiters in the history of the sport, but it’s becoming harder to ignore his shortcomings as an in-game coach.

Year after year, Calipari struggles to identify his best lineups and manage rotations. Bringing Maleek Thomas off the bench feels eerily similar to how he misused Devin Booker at Kentucky. Once again, he’s keeping one of his most dynamic players out of the starting five and handcuffing his own team’s potential. Beyond personnel, the Razorbacks looked unprepared and failed to adjust to Michigan State’s physicality. Getting dominated on the glass was inexcusable, even against a Tom Izzo team known for rebounding. Until Calipari makes real changes, Arkansas will remain a top-20 team that should be a national title contender.

Now, let’s turn to a team that is playing up to expectations: the Alabama Crimson Tide. Their guards were sensational in a gritty road win over St. John’s, dictating tempo and attacking from every angle. Their speed and shot-making will cause real problems for Purdue, a team that lacks elite athleticism and perimeter quickness.

Purdue remains a disciplined and experienced group, but they still feel overrated. Even after dropping from No. 1 to No. 2, cracks are starting to show. They struggled to pull away from a mediocre Oakland team last week, and although Trey Kaufman-Renn should return tonight, he likely won’t be at full strength.

Even if he is, I don’t think it matters. Alabama is faster, deeper, and more athletic, and after losing to Purdue the last two seasons, the Crimson Tide will be highly motivated to flip the script. Expect Alabama to control the pace, stretch Purdue’s defense, and pull away late for a statement win.

The Pick: Alabama -3.5

*Please don’t actually “bet the house.” We like the Crimson Tide here, but like any wager, it can go either way. Bet smart, have fun, and always play responsibly.

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