One of the biggest traps a sports bettor can fall into is relying too much on what they think they know. It’s easy to do, especially when it’s a sport you watch closely.
A perfect example came last year with Iowa. Everyone assumed they knew the Hawkeyes after years of a terrible offense under OC Brian Ferentz. But those low totals actually made Iowa one of the best “over” teams in the country, because the public kept betting the number down too far.
It works the same way with spreads. Knowing which teams you can truly trust, and which just look good against the number, can give you a big edge. Here are some of the most reliable spread teams over the past five years.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (41-21-2)
Surprised to see the Irish here? Notre Dame has actually been the best ATS team in college football over the past five years. The Irish often take heat for being overrated, but under Marcus Freeman they’ve quietly been a bettor’s best friend.
The turning point came early last year when they lost 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois. That game cemented in the public’s mind that Notre Dame couldn’t be trusted, and it took all season to change the narrative. But while everyone else overreacted, sharp bettors kept backing the Irish and cashing tickets. After that NIU loss, the only other time they failed to cover before the national championship was a 25-point win over Miami-Ohio as a 27.5-point favorite.
Notre Dame’s visibility often works against them, because every slip-up gets magnified. But they’re still playing a manageable schedule through their ACC deal and routinely blow out weaker opponents. This remains a strong ATS team.
Ohio State Buckeyes (37-24-2)
If Ryan Day’s team didn’t tighten up against Michigan every year, the Buckeyes might be on top of this list. Outside of those games, Ohio State has been gold. They’re 17-5-1 ATS in non-Michigan matchups the past two seasons, and until last week’s Purdue game, hadn’t failed to cover all year.
They’ve got motivation too. The Buckeyes know they can’t afford to let up if they want to lock down the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP, assuming they take care of business against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.. That urgency, combined with their elite talent, makes them one of the most reliable bets in college football.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (39-25)
Dipping into the Group of 6 can be lucrative if you know where to look. Western Kentucky is a perfect example. The Hilltoppers have quietly been one of the steadiest ATS performers in the country, going five straight seasons without a losing record against the number.
They do it despite scheduling heavyweights for paycheck games. Over the past few years, WKU has faced Alabama, Ohio State, Auburn, and Indiana, and still managed to finish in the black. A high-powered passing attack keeps them in every game and has made them a strong play most weeks.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (37-23-2)
Outside of a slip-up at Arizona State, the Red Raiders have been spectacular this year. Texas Tech has always been a decent ATS team, but 2025 has been their breakout season.
Lubbock’s isolation creates one of the toughest home-field advantages in college football, and Joey McGuire has turned that into a weapon. After years of mediocre hires, Tech finally has a coach who knows how to maximize his roster. The Red Raiders are 8-2 ATS this season, missing the cover only once, and that was by half a point in a 48-point win over Kent State as 48.5-point favorites.
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (38-23)
UNLV is a great case study in how quickly fortunes can change in modern college football. The Rebels were a mess under Marcus Arroyo, but Barry Odom and Dan Mullen have turned them into one of the most consistent bets in the country.
Odom went 18-10 ATS in his two seasons, and Mullen started hot at 4-1 before cooling off with three straight misses. There’s some concern that public attention has finally caught up to the Runnin’ Rebels, especially now that the schedule is starting to toughen up. Their non-conference slate wasn’t exactly a gauntlet, featuring Sam Houston State, UCLA, Miami (Ohio), and FCS Idaho State. Of that group, only Miami looks like a bowl team, and that’s more a reflection of the MAC’s weakness than Miami’s strength. The other three are a combined 8–20, with half those wins coming from Idaho State.
Of all the teams on this list, the Rebels inspire the least confidence. Even so, UNLV has covered 62% of its games over the past five years. When the least reliable team on this list still cashes tickets that often, it says a lot about how strong this group really is.
James Madison Dukes (28-18)
An asterisk here since the Dukes didn’t join the FBS ranks until 2022, but since moving up, they’ve been a fantastic play.
Curt Cignetti set the standard before heading to Indiana, and Bob Chesney has kept it rolling. JMU’s move to the Sun Belt created value because the market hasn’t fully caught up to how good this team actually is. Their games still tend to fly under the radar, which makes them a sneaky smart ATS pick most weeks.
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