Three Picks and a Pass: NFL Week 7 Betting Breakdown

It was a tough week for Three Picks and a Pass in Week 6, finishing 1-2 as Kansas City played its most complete game of the season against Detroit and Jacoby Brissett kept the Cardinals-Colts matchup much closer than expected. The silver lining came from Baker Mayfield, who continues to deliver and helped cash our over/under pick of the week.

This time around, we are betting against the league’s worst team, riding a pair of explosive rookie playmakers, and putting faith in two of the NFL’s top defenses. Once again, we are passing on a matchup featuring two of the weakest teams in football.

Best Moneyline of the Week: Carolina Panthers (-116 at New York Jets)

The Carolina Panthers have been one of the season’s pleasant surprises, sitting at 3-3 and fresh off a win over Dallas. They have yet to notch a signature victory against a true contender, but the winless New York Jets are certainly not that.

New York now faces a brewing quarterback controversy, with reports suggesting some players want Tyrod Taylor to replace Justin Fields. For now, Fields remains the starter, and as long as that is the case, Carolina at -116 represents tremendous value against the league’s worst record.

Best Spread of the Week: New York Giants (+7 at Denver Broncos)

The New York Giants enter Week 7 riding high after doubling up the Eagles in a 34–17 rout. Rookie duo Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo have been outstanding, especially given that top receiver Malik Nabers has been out with an injury, leaving Wan’Dale Robinson to step up as the number one target.

Denver, meanwhile, barely edged a struggling Jets team last week. Despite a 4–2 record, the Broncos have not been winning convincingly. Given how these teams are trending, the Giants look like a solid bet to cover a seven-point spread.

Best Over/Under of the Week: Eagles at Vikings (Under 43.5)

With the Vikings ranked second and the Eagles eleventh in defensive EPA, this matchup sets up well for a low-scoring game. Minnesota has kept its quarterback situation quiet, with Carson Wentz practicing fully and J.J. McCarthy limited. Either way, the position limits the Vikings’ ceiling against a quality defense.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, has yet to find rhythm through the air. Frustration is reportedly growing in the receiver room, and with the Eagles leaning heavily on the run, the clock should move quickly. Expect a slow-paced contest that stays under the total.

Game to Pass On: Dolphins at Browns

This week’s pass falls into the same category as last week’s Titans-Raiders matchup: two bad teams playing uninspired football. The Dolphins, as discussed in our Week 6 Recap, remain in disarray, while the Browns continue their annual carousel of quarterbacks and inconsistent play.

Dillon Gabriel has shown flashes in Cleveland, and Miami’s offense always has the potential to break out, but neither team has demonstrated any reliability. Avoid this one entirely.

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