Which NFL Rookie and 2nd-Year Coaches Cover the Spread Most?

Betting against the spread is never easy, but there’s always data and history to help guide those tough calls. One underrated factor? Coaching. Some head coaches consistently have their teams prepared and disciplined, while others seem to find new ways to frustrate bettors week after week.

Today, we’re taking a closer look at how rookie and second-year head coaches perform against the spread. This includes any game they’ve coached as a head coach, whether in the NFL or at the college level.

This isn’t meant to be the ultimate betting guide, but it’s another useful piece of the puzzle. If you’re ever stuck deciding which side to back and you see one of these names on the sideline, maybe this information will help tip the scales.

Note: For this list, we’re also including coaches in their first year with a new team, which means veterans like Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel are part of the group.

Ben Johnson – 5-3 ATS (62.5%)

Chicago’s first-year signal caller has his team competitive again. The Bears’ overall record mirrors their performance against the spread, meaning they’re winning the games they should and losing the ones they should. The defense is forcing turnovers, Caleb Williams is improving each week, and Johnson benefits from a small but encouraging sample size.

Jim Harbaugh – 57-37-5 ATS (60%)

The Chargers are 6-3 but just 4-5 against the spread. That’s below Harbaugh’s usual standard. During his Michigan tenure, his teams were just above .500 ATS, but he historically performs better once he has a full season to stabilize a roster.

Dave Canales – 14-12 ATS (54%)

Canales has done wonders with Bryce Young’s development. Young looked raw under Frank Reich as a rookie, but he’s much more confident this season. The NFC South features three coaches on this list, and Canales is the only one above .500 ATS.

Pete Carroll – 119-107-9 ATS (53%)

The Raiders may be 2-6, but they’re 3-5 against the spread thanks to their Week 1 upset over the Patriots. Carroll’s strong ATS record comes mostly from his Seattle years, where he built a consistent, disciplined program that regularly outperformed expectations.

Mike Macdonald – 12-11-2 ATS (52%)

Macdonald’s second season in Seattle has been impressive. The Seahawks are 6-2 against the spread and have shown remarkable consistency. Macdonald’s defensive roots continue to shine through, and his teams rarely underperform.

Mike Vrabel – 57-53-3 ATS (51.8%)

Vrabel’s first year with the Patriots has been an early success story. New England sits at 7-2 overall and 6-4 ATS. He has Drake Maye looking like an MVP candidate, and the defense has taken major steps forward. This week’s matchup with Tampa Bay will be a good barometer of whether the Patriots are true contenders or simply beneficiaries of a soft schedule.

Aaron Glenn – 4-4 ATS (50%)

Despite the Jets’ struggles, Glenn’s group has stayed competitive. The trades of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams will likely derail any momentum, but Glenn has kept the team playing hard in tight games.

Liam Coen – 4-4 ATS (50%)

The Jaguars are 5-3 overall but 4-4 ATS, missing one cover as small favorites against Las Vegas. Coen’s offense looks more organized and balanced, and Jacksonville is more competitive than many expected in his first season.

Dan Quinn – 55-62-1 ATS (47%)

Now in his second year with Washington, Quinn sits at 3-6 ATS this season. Losing quarterback Jayden Daniels to injury hurt badly, and while Marcus Mariota is capable, Quinn’s record could slide further without his rookie star.

Brian Schottenheimer – 4-5 ATS (44.4%)

After Mike McCarthy’s departure, many assumed Jerry Jones would pursue a splashy hire. Instead, he promoted offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. The offense has been efficient, but the defense has collapsed. A loss to the Cardinals on Monday dropped him below .500 both overall and against the spread.

Raheem Morris – 35-47-1 ATS (43%)

Most of Morris’s ATS record dates back to his Tampa Bay tenure from 2009 to 2011. With Atlanta this season, he’s 4-4 ATS, alternating between impressive upsets and confusing blowouts. The Falcons shocked the Vikings and Bills but were shut out by Carolina and lost big to Miami. Until Penix Jr. finds consistency, Morris will likely remain around the .500 mark or below.

Mike McCoy – 1-2 ATS (33%)

McCoy took over as Tennessee’s interim coach after Brian Callahan’s firing. The Titans covered in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers, giving McCoy his first ATS win. It’s a small sample size, but given this roster’s limitations, any cover is a win in itself. Expect Tennessee to be underdogs in nearly every game going forward.

Kellen Moore – 2-7 ATS (22%)

It’s been a tough start for Moore in New Orleans. His roster isn’t ready to compete yet, and early quarterback instability hasn’t helped. The Saints started Spencer Rattler for seven games before handing the reins to rookie Tyler Shough. Moore deserves time to build, but right now, bettors would be wise to stay away.

Parting Shot

Coaches’ records against the spread can swing with roster health, injuries, and public perception. But one thing never changes: the best coaches do more than win games. They outperform expectations and make Vegas look bad in the process. Of course, it will never be the ultimate deciding factor, but it is another valuable data point to keep in mind when making betting decisions.

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