The end of the MLB regular season is approaching. Teams are getting close to the 130-game mark, with each win and loss taking on extra significance in the race for postseason positioning.
The AL and NL West are poised for tight divisional races, set to go down the final week of the regular season.
*All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners to Win AL West (+105)
Since July 6, Houston has gone 14-22. Seattle, despite losing four games in a row, is only 1.5 games behind the Astros at the time of writing. Both teams have a favorable remaining schedule, including a pivotal three-game set in the second half of September.
This isn’t just a vote of confidence in a Seattle team which added impact talent at the trade deadline. It’s equally a thumbs down on the Astros. Houston has the second-worst offense in baseball in the second half and ranks in the bottom five in bullpen ERA over the same period.
Even with Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown atop the rotation, the Astros cannot compensate for a misfiring offense and unreliable bullpen. Every series looks like a massive challenge for Houston as it stands, and this isn’t a short-term problem, with this poor run dating back almost two months.
Seattle has a stacked rotation, featuring Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo. Their bullpen is 11th in ERA in the second half, with Andrés Muñoz headlining a talented group. Cal Raleigh has cooled off, and Eugenio Suárez has endured a torrid start to his second Seattle stint, but there’s plenty of production from the rest of the lineup, including Josh Naylor.
New York Yankees to Win AL East (+330)
With a vast fanbase and outsized hype every year, the Yankees aren’t usually a good bet in futures markets. It seems like this is an exception to that rule, however, with New York’s offense getting white-hot over the last few games and closing the gap to only five games.
Toronto has a comfortable lead but hasn’t been playing particularly impressive baseball. The Jays have one of the worst bullpens in the majors in the second half and has gone 11-11 since July 26.
Shane Bieber was Toronto’s only rotation upgrade. He’s coming off a torn UCL and won’t make his first start of the year until Friday. Kevin Gausman and Eric Lauer are having strong years, but Chris Bassitt and José Berríos have been inconsistent. Pair that with a flaky bullpen, and you have the formula for a team to blow a big divisional lead.
The Yankees are far from perfect, as reflected by their +330 odds. They have been mediocre for several weeks, and their bullpen revamp hasn’t really worked so far (Camilo Doval’s ERA starts with a six; Jake Bird was optioned to the minors).
Still, New York has a solid top three in Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt, while their lineup could be the best in the American League if it stays healthy.
Toronto still has to face the Brewers, Reds, and Royals, who are all red-hot. New York’s seven games against Boston and their three-game series with the Jays could decide the division.
San Diego Padres to Win NL West (+310)
With the easiest remaining schedule in baseball and sitting only two games behind the Dodgers, this price seems very generous for bettors. San Diego dealt with a setback when they were swept by Los Angeles over the weekend, but they have excelled on both sides of the ball in the second half.
Once again, A.J. Preller was very aggressive at the trade deadline. It has given the offense the jolt it needed with Ramón Laureano, in particular, providing big-time production in the outfield.
San Diego could eliminate Los Angeles’ deficit across their three-game series this weekend. The Padres have seven games to beat up on the historically bad Rockies, and also get to face the retooling Twins, the down-year Orioles, the no-hope White Sox, and the depleted Diamondbacks.
The Dodgers have already blown one commanding division lead and could be too focused on preparing for the playoffs rather than racking up series wins.
You have to go back to 2006 to the last time the Padres won the division. This era of Padres baseball hasn’t delivered on the high expectations, but the final weeks of the 2025 campaign represent a great opportunity to end their NL West drought.
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