Three Picks and a Pass: NFL Week 9 Betting Breakdown

Week 8 delivered plenty of surprises, and they hit our “Three Picks” record hard as we went 1-2. The 49ers started Mac Jones with Brock Purdy still sidelined by turf toe and fell to the Texans, while the Bengals collapsed late and gave up 23 fourth-quarter points to lose to the Jets after looking like a lock to cover. Thankfully, the Bills saved us from a shutout, putting up 40 points and nearly covering the over 46.5 single-handedly.

For Week 9, we’re betting against a team that burned us last week, backing a league favorite to cover a small number, and playing the under where injuries loom large. We’ll once again pass on a game with major quarterback uncertainty, where the outcome could swing either way.

Best Moneyline of the Week: Denver Broncos (+110 at Houston Texans)

We took the moneyline against the Texans last week and lost…..so we’re running it back. 

The Broncos are without Pat Surtain, which could hurt them against C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins, but not enough to scare us off this price. Denver is 6-2, the offense is cooking, and Bo Nix looks like he’s emerging from the sophomore slump.

Houston’s win over San Francisco was solid, but we’re not sold. The offensive line still can’t be trusted, and even without Surtain, Denver’s defense can disrupt early and often. At +110, this feels like the value play of the week.

Best Spread of the Week: Indianapolis Colts (-3 at Pittsburgh Steelers)

When was the last time the Colts didn’t win by at least three points? The answer is week 4, which proved to be their only loss of the season against the Rams.

Daniel Jones and the Colts have shocked everyone, lighting up scoreboards week after week. The Steelers, at 4-3, look like the classic Mike Tomlin team: win the ones you should, lose the ones you should. Jonathan Taylor has been unstoppable, and Pittsburgh’s 18th-ranked rushing defense is a concern. If Indy controls the tempo, winning by more than a field goal feels like the floor.

Best Over/Under of the Week: Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders (Under 47.5)

The Chiefs shut down Washington’s offense last week with Marcus Mariota under center. Jayden Daniels is likely out again, and Terry McLaurin re-injured his quad, leaving the Commanders without their top weapons. Even if Daniels returns, his health is a major question mark.

Sam Darnold has been steady for Seattle, but this team typically lands in the low 20s offensively. Facing a short-handed Washington squad, this matchup has the makings of a slow, grind-it-out game. The under 47.5 looks right.

Game to Pass On: Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals

Another week, another Bears game tied to quarterback uncertainty. Joe Flacco is dealing with a shoulder injury to his throwing arm, specifically an AC joint sprain. If he can’t go, it will be Jake Browning again. The gap between those two is enormous, and there is no telling how prepared Cincinnati will be. Best to stay away from this one.

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