Three Picks and a Pass: NFL Week 8 Betting Breakdown

Week 7 was a nice bounceback for Three Picks and a Pass, going 2-1 with some solid calls. The Giants covered the spread despite a historic fourth-quarter collapse, and the Panthers made Justin Fields and the Jets offense look just as bad as they have all year. The Eagles found their passing game at just the wrong time for us, blowing our under by six and a half points, but overall, it was a positive week in the books.

This week, we’re backing an injury-prone 5-2 team that’s being undervalued, a backup quarterback who lit up the league last week, and a slumping team primed for a rebound. We’re also passing on one matchup where an injury situation could flip the line completely. Let’s get to it.

Best Moneyline of the Week: San Francisco 49ers (-102 at Houston Texans)

The Texans just played a now 5-2 NFC West team last week, losing by eight to the Seahawks, and now face another. Houston didn’t look particularly inspired in Week 7, and the 49ers sitting at -102 feels off.

It isn’t completely unexplainable, as San Francisco is dealing with another injury-riddled season, but even at 75-80% health, this roster still executes at a higher level than Houston’s. No level of injury makes up for the Texans’ offensive line issues. The 49ers may resemble a 3-4 or 4-3 team talent-wise right now, but they are still miles ahead of the 2-4 Texans. We’re happy to take them here.

Best Spread of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5 vs New York Jets)

Joe Flacco looked sharp last week, opening up the Bengals offense and using Chase and Higgins in a way Jake Browning never could. Meanwhile, Justin Fields has been so ineffective that Jets owner Woody Johnson publicly called him out, leading to speculation about Tyrod Taylor taking over. In classic Jets fashion, Taylor is now day-to-day with a knee injury, and Fields may have fallen back into the job without earning it.

That chaos makes -6.5 for the Bengals feel small. Cincinnati’s narrow two-point win over Pittsburgh came against a far more competent offense. If Flacco keeps the offense humming, this could easily be a two- or three-touchdown win.

Best Over/Under of the Week: Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (Over 46.5)

The Bills have dropped two straight and their offense has stalled, raising questions about whether the receiver room is as strong as advertised. But this game, against an overachieving Panthers team with a weak defense, feels like the perfect get-right spot for Josh Allen and company.

The Panthers will need to throw to keep pace, and if they fall behind early, expect plenty of possessions and quick scoring chances. Both teams should push this total comfortably over 46.5.

Game to Pass On: Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens

Whether Lamar Jackson plays remains uncertain. He returned to practice in a limited capacity this week, but even if he suits up, lingering hamstring tightness could limit his mobility and effectiveness. With so many variables in play, this game is too unpredictable to touch.

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