Three Picks and a Pass: NFL Week 11 Betting Breakdown

The 1-2 streak continues through Week 10, and the big lesson remains the same: never bet on the Browns.

Cleveland lost to the Jets despite New York’s trade deadline fire sale, showing just how far from competitive the Browns truly are. The Giants-Bears over was a near-miss, finishing at 44 points and falling just short of our 46.5-point target. Thankfully, the Rams continued their dominant play, taking down the 49ers 42-26 and easily covering the -4.5 spread.

This week, our moneyline and spread picks both fade teams coming off recent struggles (one more surprising than the other), while our over/under focuses on a divisional matchup between two high-powered passing attacks. Let’s take a look at the Week 11 lineup that aims to get us back in the win column.

Best Moneyline of the Week: LA Chargers (-156 at Jacksonville Jaguars)

The Jaguars are trending down, with Trevor Lawrence slipping into his midseason funk again, missing throws and stalling drives.

Meanwhile, the 7-3 Chargers are playing some of their best football of the year. They’ve won four of their last five, with the only loss coming against Indianapolis. Justin Herbert is playing smart, steady football, keeping the offense moving efficiently and minimizing mistakes.

Jacksonville will be desperate to bounce back, but this Chargers team is too complete and too confident right now. The line feels closer than it should be, making this a strong addition to any parlay.

Best Spread of the Week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5 at Buffalo Bills)

The Bills have been painfully inconsistent, and even when the Buccaneers struggle, they find ways to put up points.

Both teams are 6-3 and fairly even in terms of talent, so this spread feels generous. Even if Buffalo wins, it’s hard to imagine Tampa losing by much. Their three losses came by 6, 5, and 15 points, the latter being their lone dud against Detroit.

The Buccaneers have a real chance to win outright, but even if they don’t, they’re likely to keep it close and cover.

Best Over/Under of the Week: Seattle Seahawks at LA Rams (Over 48.5)

This is one of the most balanced matchups of the week, featuring two playoff-caliber teams with strong veteran quarterbacks and elite wideouts.

The Rams’ pass rush could make life difficult for Sam Darnold, but both teams have shown they can score quickly. Expect points in bunches and a game that ends somewhere in the high 20s or low 30s for both sides. This over should hit comfortably.

Game to Pass On: Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

The Packers feel like the obvious pick, but their offense has been clunky and inconsistent. The rushing attack has stalled, which has limited the passing game and overall rhythm.

The Giants are a wild card this week with interim coach Mike Kafka and veteran quarterback Jameis Winston stepping in. That combination could spark something new offensively, or it could implode. Either way, that uncertainty makes this a stay-away game. These “new coach, new QB” situations often turn into trap spots for bettors, so proceed with caution.

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