Three Picks and a Pass: NFL Week 10 Betting Breakdown

Another week, another 1-2 result, and we’re back to the drawing board. Week 9 was full of upsets and unexpected scores, and we fell victim to that chaos with our Indianapolis spread bet. Daniel Jones briefly reverted to his New York days, and Pittsburgh took advantage. Meanwhile, Seattle lit up the Commanders, blowing our under bet out of the water. Thankfully, Denver pulled off the win in Houston, albeit by just three points. We’ll need a stronger Week 10 to get back in the win column.

To get there, we’re making our boldest moneyline pick of the year, balancing it with a safe spread bet on a season-long favorite, and taking the over on a matchup between two bad defenses. And for our “pass” of the week, we’re staying far away from the weekend’s biggest game.

Best Moneyline of the Week: Cleveland Browns (-126 at New York Jets)

I can say with full confidence that I have never bet on, or told anyone else to bet on, a Cleveland moneyline before. Today is a first.

The Browns aren’t a good team, but at least they have direction and a clear game plan. Rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s shown some poise and grit, and Myles Garrett continues to dominate on defense.

The Jets, on the other hand, just shipped out Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the deadline, so now they lack both an offense and a defense. Call me crazy, but I’ll take the team that still has both sides of the ball working.

Best Spread of the Week: LA Rams (-4.5 at San Francisco 49ers)

The Rams have passed the eye test all season. Matthew Stafford looks rejuvenated, leading the league in passing touchdowns and yards per game (excluding Brock Purdy, who’s only played two). This offense has been rolling, and even with injuries, players like Blake Corum have filled in seamlessly. If Puka Nacua can’t go, this offense still has enough balance and depth to operate at a high level.

The 49ers have been admirable with Mac Jones under center, but the injuries are mounting, and Jones himself is banged up. Against a team like LA, with a ferocious pass rush led by Jared Verse, this could unravel quickly. Expect the 49ers to hang around in the first half before fading late as the Rams pull away and cover.

Best Over/Under of the Week: New York Giants at Chicago Bears (Over 46.5)

This might be the easiest bet of the week. Both defenses rank in the bottom third of the league. Even without Cam Skattebo, the Giants have a functional backfield with Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary, and the Bears will exploit a porous New York secondary. Don’t overthink this one. Take the over and bank on an offensive shootout.

Game to Pass On: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

There will be plenty of money coming in on this game, with most bettors expecting Philadelphia to roll past Green Bay after the Packers shocking loss to Carolina. It is easy to overreact to one bad game, but the Pack have a habit of showing up when the spotlight is on. They tend to play to the level of their opponent, for better or worse.

In this matchup, I expect them to rise to the occasion and keep it closer than most people think. That uncertainty makes this one too unpredictable to touch, so I am staying away.

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