The CFB picture is starting to take shape as we get into the meat of the season, and Week 3 gave us a good idea of who the contenders and pretenders are. As is reality in a league with so many teams and so many expectations, we’re already seeing coaches get fired, fanbases get frustrated, and teams take season-altering losses. Let’s take a look at the biggest developments of the week:
Top Games of the Week
Georgia @ Tennessee (44-41):
The Volunteers came into this game looking to upset the Top 10 ranked Bulldogs and finally get the monkey off their back (Georgia had won 8 straight going into this matchup).
Despite the loss, Tennessee took this game right to the wire and showed that they belong in the conversation as a top CFB team, keeping their 15 rank in the AP Top 25. Georgia played big in a pressure-packed situation, which bodes well for their hopes of a deep CFP run.
Clemson @ Georgia Tech (21-24):
While Tigers fans are going to hate seeing this game listed here, it was an absolute nail biter that had fans on both sides stressing until the end. The Yellow Jackets nailed a game-winning field goal at the buzzer to upset the 12-ranked Tigers.
Clemson fans are calling for Dabo Swinney’s head, while GT fans are singing Haynes King’s praises after putting up over 300 combined yards passing and rushing along with another rushing touchdown on the season. Keep an eye on King, who’s hitting his stride in Georgia.
Texas A&M @ Notre Dame (41-40):
An absolute slug-it-out offensive battle between 2 ranked teams, Texas A&M comes out on top against an underperforming pre-season darling. Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed tied the game up with just 13 seconds left before winning on the subsequent extra point.
Questions abound for Notre Dame, who go from Championship contenders to winless and struggling. On the other hand, all eyes are on Marcel Reed, who’s been more than impressive to this point.
AP Top 25 Risers and Fallers
Risers:
#10 Texas A&M (up 6): Like we mentioned above, massive win against the Fighting Irish. If they can keep firing, Texas A&M’s offense could lead them to the CFP this season.
#14 Alabama (up 5): The 2-1 Crimson Tide jump 5 spots while on a bye week. Alabama should just keep quiet and appreciate the gift, as they haven’t had a convincing win against strong competition yet this year.
#13 Ole Miss (up 4): The Rebels jump into the Top 15 after a 3-0 start. Austin Simmons as been hit-and-miss (1:1 TD-INT ratio), and the Rebels have yet to play a ranked opponent, so time will tell if this ranking is inflated or legitimate.
Fallers:
South Carolina (unranked): Based on voting, the Gamecocks dropped from #11 to #28. An ugly loss to Vanderbilt showed just how reliant this team is on LaNorris Sellers to be competitive. If Sellers misses extended time with his head injury, we may not see SC in the rankings again this year.
#24 Notre Dame (down 16): What a massive fall from grace for the winless Fighting Irish. Two losses suffered with a total of 4 points between them and their opponents, both ranked. There is a path back to contention, but Notre Dame has to be perfect from here on out.
Clemson (unranked): Unlike Notre Dame, there’s a serious chance the Tigers are already out of playoff contention. The pre-season darling of the ACC’s loss to Georgia Tech make syou wonder if Dabo Swinney knows how to win with this team, and if Cade Klubnik can get back to top QB status.
Betting Strategy: How To Adapt From Week 3
Bet The Under On The Longhorns
Like I mentioned in our Week 3 Best Bets, the Longhorns offense just isn’t scoring the way people expected when Arch Manning was announced as the starting QB. After putting up just 27 points against the lowly UTEP Miners, there can’t be any expectation that this offense can keep up with regular high-octane college scoring.
Until Vegas catches up to Texas’ offensive output potential, keep an eye on the under for them.
Be Wary Of The Spread Bet In Top 25 Matchups
Top 25 games have been playing incredibly tight this year, especially as you get closer to those Top 10 teams. With games ending in 3 point or less margins, spreads are a real risky bet right now. If you are going to target spreads on big games, do your research. Until things start to open up a bit, moneylines might be the safer play.
Don’t Overreact
We’re 3 weeks in. People are going to start overreacting and making crazy bets on big odds because a high profile team is starting off ugly. While there are always underperforming teams and well-earned upsets, there are levels to the roster talent across the NCAA, and if you get too greedy, you’ll start bleeding money on silly bets.
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