The 2025 MLB trade deadline made a clear differentiation between contenders and teams with minimal realistic playoff aspirations.
Per BetMGM Sportsbook, 17 teams sit at +10000 or longer to win the World Series, while just 13 teams are at +3500 or shorter. The field has narrowed, and each contender’s odds have shifted after a flurry of deadline moves.
Here’s how the top 13 World Series contenders stack up right now, ranked in reverse order based on their title chances:
#13. Texas Rangers
Do Merrill Kelly, Danny Coulombe, and Phil Maton really move the needle for the Rangers? Texas has a 99 wRC+ since the start of June, and none of their moves injected much life into the offense.
A rotation featuring Kelly, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi is intriguing, and the offense has breakout potential, but it has not shown much to suggest a turnaround is coming.
The Rangers are currently outside the final wild-card spot and face an uphill battle to reach the postseason.
#12. New York Yankees
Since June 12, the Yankees are 18-30. Aaron Judge’s recent injury doesn’t help, but the downward spiral started long before he hit the injured list.
Their trade deadline looked solid on paper, but all three relievers were part of a loss shortly after. The offense has major holes, and the pitching staff has posted bottom-10 numbers since June 1.
#11. Houston Astros
It’s been a 7-15 skid for Houston, and their offense has struggled. Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez, and Ramon Urias were interesting deadline pickups, but with Isaac Paredes out for the year, the Astros need a spark.
The bullpen remains strong. Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez are a legit one-two punch, but Houston may lack a third trusted postseason arm.
#10. Boston Red Sox
After falling two games under .500 last month, Boston has gone 19-6. Steven Matz boosts the bullpen, and Dustin May adds depth behind Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello.
Still, while it’s been a strong run, the pitching staff might not have enough to win multiple playoff series. Reaching the postseason would already be a win based on where they were a month ago.
#9. Chicago Cubs
Taylor Rogers, Mike Soroka, and Andrew Kittredge were fine but unspectacular additions at the deadline. The offense is elite, so Chicago didn’t need to chase a bat.
The concern is still the rotation, and the Brewers have already jumped them in the division. With a long road ahead, this group may not have the arms to survive four rounds of playoff baseball.
#8. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dustin May is gone. Alex Call and Brock Stewart are in. Los Angeles mostly stood pat, banking on health and star power to carry them through.
But the team ranks bottom-10 in both wRC+ and bullpen ERA over the last two months. They have a ceiling, no doubt, but haven’t shown consistency since early in the season.
#7. San Diego Padres
A.J. Preller was busy as usual. The Padres added Nestor Cortes, Mason Miller, J.P. Sears, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, and Freddy Fermin. Their rotation has more depth, and Miller could be a lights-out reliever.
San Diego still trails the Dodgers by a wide margin, but their aggressive approach could give them momentum heading into October.
#6. Detroit Tigers
With an eight-game lead in the AL Central, Detroit is close to clinching a playoff berth. But since June 18, they are 17-21 and failed to do enough at the deadline.
The offense has cooled off, Reese Olson is out for the year, and Charlie Morton might not be enough of a replacement. Only a few bullpen arms are reliable in high-leverage spots.
#5. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners added Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, and Caleb Ferguson to bolster a team that ranks third in wRC+ and 10th in bullpen ERA since June 1.
Seattle could boast the best rotation in the American League if Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, and George Kirby stay healthy.
#4. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are on fire offensively and lead the NL Central by two games. They didn’t make a big deadline splash, but the earlier move for Andrew Vaughn has paid off.
With minimal weak spots, Milwaukee has emerged as a legitimate World Series threat in the second half.
#3. Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto owns one of baseball’s best offenses since early June. Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland helped stabilize a previously shaky bullpen.
The rotation isn’t stacked with stars but is steady and postseason-tested. The Jays are peaking at the right time and could be a tough out in October.
#2. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies added David Robertson and Jhoan Duran to the bullpen and Harrison Bader to the outfield. Their depth is solid and their rotation is the best in the National League.
They’ve been underwhelming statistically since June, but this is a veteran group built for the postseason.
#1. New York Mets
No one helped themselves more at the deadline than the Mets. They overhauled their bullpen with Tyler Rogers, Ryan Helsley, and Gregory Soto, and upgraded the lineup with Cedric Mullins.
They are not leading their division, but they have postseason experience, a deep lineup, strong rotation, and one of the best bullpens in baseball. October is all about matchups and momentum, and the Mets seem to be building both at the perfect time.
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