Latest
NFL Win Totals to Watch: Over, Under, and Avoid
It is June, and the urge to build wild same-game parlays and cook up moneyline combos is as strong as ever for NFL betting fans. Nothing beats pulling up a Sunday slate, lighting the grill, and trying to find the picks the public missed.
While we wait for weekly action to return, the season win total market offers plenty of early value. Many lines are tight and sharp, but a few stand out as soft or mispriced. These are the types of bets that reward early research and gut instinct.
Here are four teams worth considering for a win total bet, along with one high-profile team to stay away from entirely.
Detroit Lions: Over 10.5 Wins
Detroit’s win total sits at 10.5, and that number seems built more on coordinator turnover and franchise history than what the roster or coaching staff actually brings to the table.
The departures of Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn have sparked concern, with both now head coaches in Chicago and New York. Johnson in particular was seen as the mastermind behind Detroit’s offensive explosion in 2024. Even with those changes, this is still a 15-win team returning most of its core.
Dan Campbell remains the emotional engine of this group. He leads a roster filled with veteran leadership and emerging stars. With continuity in personnel and a culture that has clearly flipped, Detroit is positioned to handle the transition better than some might expect.
This is no longer the same old Lions. Treating them like a fragile favorite based on history would be a mistake.
Bet: Over 10.5
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 Wins
This number looks low for a Mike Tomlin team. The man has never posted a losing season, and while streaks are meant to break, there is no reason to expect this to be the year.
Pittsburgh finished 10 and 7 last season and improved its roster in both the draft and free agency. The addition of Aaron Rodgers gives them a steady veteran presence, even if he is nearing the end of his career. He replaces Russell Wilson and should be a better fit in this offense. DK Metcalf steps in as the primary wideout, giving them a significant upgrade over George Pickens.
Running back Kaleb Johnson was a steal in the draft and could bring immediate production. Add that to a defense that still includes TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Cam Heyward, and you have a complete team. If corner Joey Porter Jr. takes a step forward and rookie Derrick Harmon lives up to his billing, this roster becomes even more dangerous.
Pittsburgh feels like a team built to get to nine wins and beyond.
Bet: Over 8.5
Indianapolis Colts: Under 6.5 Wins
If you have read my quarterbacks article, you already know how shaky I feel about the Colts signal-caller situation. Anthony Richardson is one rough year away from bust territory, and Daniel Jones looks more like the version from Carolina than the one who flashed in Minnesota.
The Colts have solid skill position players. Jonathan Taylor is a top-tier back when healthy. Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce are capable targets. Rookie tight end Kendarius Warren could surprise. But the offensive line leans too heavily on Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith. When you combine that with turnover-prone quarterbacks and one who cannot stay on the field, the margin for error disappears.
Defensively, there is talent. Charvarius Ward brings experience. Rookie JT Tuimoloau could be a draft gem. But no defense can dominate if it is on the field for 35 minutes a game. Without better quarterback play, the offense will stall drives and the defense will break down.
This roster has potential in some areas, but six wins might already be optimistic.
Bet: Under 6.5
Las Vegas Raiders: Over 5.5 Wins
Take a look at the Raiders in 2024, then look at them heading into this year. The improvements are obvious, even if the betting markets have not fully adjusted.
Last year’s quarterback room was Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. This year, it is Geno Smith. Brock Bowers returns after a record-breaking rookie season. Running back Ashton Jeanty enters as one of the most exciting new players in the league. Pete Carroll is now at the helm. There is structure, energy, and purpose.
The receiver group is still a bit shaky. The cornerback room needs help. But Jeanty opens up the offense with his physicality and vision. He will allow Geno to run an efficient passing game that leans on Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Defensively, Maxx Crosby finally has a team that can give him leads to protect.
This team might not be a playoff threat, but six wins should not be out of reach.
Bet: Over 5.5
The Team to Avoid: Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 10.5 Wins)
There is too much uncertainty to touch this line. Joe Burrow was in MVP form last season, but the defense was abysmal. It was a unit that often looked worse than some college programs. Whether that has been fixed is unclear. Whether the offense can repeat that level of production is also unclear.
Head coach Zac Taylor is quietly on the hot seat. Trey Hendrickson is holding out for a new deal. First-round pick Shemar Stewart has not signed yet. The vibes around this team are chaotic.
This could be a twelve-win team or a sub-500 one. Either way, this is not a number worth chasing.
Bet: Pass
Final Thoughts
June does not bring us full slates or red zone madness, but sharp bettors can still find value if they pay attention to the win total market. Not every line is beatable, but some clearly tilt too far in one direction. Detroit and Pittsburgh are built to succeed. Indianapolis feels like a house of cards. Las Vegas has turned a corner. Cincinnati is a mystery best left alone.
Trust your read, lock in value early, and enjoy the long game before kickoff ever arrives.
Want more like this? Come hang with us here:
Join our newsletter for weekly updates and picks!
