NFL Make or Miss Playoffs: Which Teams Are Worth Betting Right Now?

The NFL season is nearing its halfway point, and the trade deadline is fast approaching. Several teams are already shopping veterans, acknowledging that a playoff run is unlikely. Few clubs can feel truly secure about their postseason chances. 

The Colts, the league’s only 6–1 team after Week 7, have exceeded expectations but may face regression before the regular season ends. Others are off to slower starts yet still have paths to turn things around, whether through a favorable upcoming schedule or the return of key players from injury.

Here are our five best make/miss bets for the 2025-26 NFL playoffs:

Pittsburgh Steelers To Miss Playoffs (-106)

Pittsburgh’s defense is not as dominant as its reputation suggests. The Steelers are still generating pressure, but their sack totals are down and their run defense remains a glaring weakness. That was evident in their 33-point collapse against a Joe Flacco-led Bengals offense.

Their 4-2 record looks solid at first glance, yet it may be misleading. The AFC North is weak, and Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule is brutal. That loss to Cincinnati could end up costing them a postseason berth.

It is hard to imagine more than one playoff team coming out of this division. Baltimore is still within striking distance, and Cincinnati could make things interesting if Flacco continues to steady the offense. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has just one quality win all season and now faces the Colts, Chargers, Bears, and Bills in the next five weeks.

Chicago Bears To Make Playoffs (+220)

Chicago is fortunate to sit at 4–2 after opening the season with two losses. The upcoming stretch will define their playoff hopes, with road trips to Baltimore and Cincinnati followed by a home matchup against the Giants. After that, the Bears face the Vikings and Steelers. If things break right, an 8–3 record heading into Week 13 against the Eagles is not out of the question.

The NFC remains wide open. The Bears, Cowboys, and Falcons are all within striking distance of the wild card spots, with Chicago just behind the Rams. It is unlikely the NFC West sends three teams to the postseason, meaning one of the 49ers, Rams, or Seahawks will likely fall off during the second half of the season.

Even the 5–2 Eagles are far from secure in their division, with the Packers, Lions, and Cowboys still on their schedule after the bye week. Skepticism around Chicago is understandable, though. Their current expected win-loss record sits at 2.9–3.1, meaning they’ve played more like a .500 team than their 4–2 record suggests. Additionally, the defense has yet to prove itself against top competition. Still, with several winnable games ahead, there is legitimate value on the Bears at +220.

Atlanta Falcons To Make Playoffs (+138)

Only three teams are averaging fewer points per game than Atlanta, which is hard to believe given their offensive upside. The breakout win over Buffalo showed what happens when the Falcons’ weapons finally produce.

With one of the easiest schedules left, and only a few matchups as likely underdogs (at New England, Indianapolis, and Tampa Bay), the door is wide open. Their playoff odds at current prices offer real value, especially before a likely blowout of the fading Dolphins in Week 8.

Dallas Cowboys To Make Playoffs (+270)

The Cowboys might be the league’s most entertaining roller coaster. They rank second in scoring and near the bottom in points allowed, which makes them both dangerous and unpredictable.

With two likely wins coming up, they should hit 5–3–1 before a softer closing stretch that includes the Vikings, Chargers, Commanders, and Giants. As long as Dak Prescott and Jake Ferguson stay healthy, this offense will keep them in every game. Ten wins and a wild card spot are well within reach.

Los Angeles Chargers To Miss Playoffs (+160)

The Chargers sit in the middle of the league in EPA on both sides of the ball and have been hit hard by injuries. Upcoming games against the Vikings and Titans in Weeks 8 and 9 should lift them to 6–3, but a road trip to face the Jaguars looms large.

The closing stretch is brutal. Los Angeles finishes the regular season with matchups against the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos. It is not unrealistic that those could all end in losses. The defense ranks 25th in expected points allowed, and it is difficult to see this team keeping pace with Kansas City or Denver in the AFC West.

The AFC wild card picture is relatively soft, but the Week 11 showdown with Jacksonville could determine their fate. The Jaguars have the easier schedule and are far healthier, which makes that game especially critical.

The Chargers’ depleted offensive line continues to leave Justin Herbert under pressure, and the outlook could worsen quickly if he misses any time. With so many obstacles ahead, Los Angeles remains one of the riskiest playoff bets on the board.

Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop