NBA Preseason Breakdown & Predictions: Pacific Division

The Pacific Division has been the most loaded in recent NBA history. It is looking less dominant in 2025–26, with three fringe contenders and two teams likely heading toward the lottery.

Packed with veteran talent, the big markets have future Hall of Famers aplenty. With experience, though, comes risk of injury. It feels like a long shot this division produces a Conference Finalist, but it would not be a surprise to have three playoff teams.

Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Luka Dončić
SG: Austin Reaves
SF: Rui Hachimura
PF: LeBron James
C: Deandre Ayton

Key Bench Contributors: Marcus Smart, Gabe Vincent, Jake LaRavia, Dalton Knecht

It was not the most captivating of offseasons by Lakers standards. Acquiring Luka Dončić midway through last season more than compensates for that, though, and there were some interesting additions in Jake LaRavia, Marcus Smart, and Deandre Ayton.

Perimeter defense is a concern. Smart is more comfortable on threes and fours at this stage. Austin Reaves and Dončić are not capable of going up against the West’s premier ball handlers.

The offense is going to be dynamic. JJ Redick only needs a middling defense for this to be a 55-plus win team. They are deserving division favorites if Dončić plays 60 or more games.

Prediction: 55–27
Divisional Projection: 1st
Ceiling: Conference Finals

Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: James Harden
SG: Bradley Beal
SF: Kawhi Leonard
PF: John Collins
C: Ivica Zubac

Key Bench Contributors: Chris Paul, Kris Dunn, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Brook Lopez, Derrick Jones Jr.

This Clippers roster would be title favorites seven or eight years ago. Ty Lue, already wrestling with the load management requirements for Kawhi Leonard, is going to face scrutiny over the suspect payments to Leonard and has to navigate an elderly roster.

It is going to be an effective regular-season team. Chris Paul and Bradley Beal ease some of the backcourt workload that James Harden has been carrying, and Brook Lopez is a brilliant backup for Ivica Zubac.

It is a high-floor, low-ceiling group. It is not dynamic enough, nor does it have the upside, to topple the Thunder or even eliminate a full-strength Denver. Their win total is a stay-away for me.

Prediction: 50–32
Divisional Projection: 2nd
Ceiling: Second-Round Exit

Golden State Warriors

Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Steph Curry
SG: De’Anthony Melton
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Draymond Green
C: Al Horford

Key Bench Contributors: Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis

Golden State finally reached a conclusion with Jonathan Kuminga. It has primed Kuminga as a trade candidate once again, as the Dubs load up on veterans around Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

This will not be a regular-season winning machine, with Curry, Green, Butler, and Al Horford all likely to play fewer than 70 games. Their record with Butler and Curry after last season’s trade shows the upside, however, and makes the over mightily tempting. Is this team really going to win fewer games than last season?

Winning a playoff series is within reach, even if the Warriors do not have home-court advantage. Their experience stands them in very good stead next spring.

Prediction: 49–33
Divisional Projection: 3rd
Ceiling: Conference Finals

Sacramento Kings

Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Dennis Schröder
SG: Zach LaVine
SF: DeMar DeRozan
PF: Keegan Murray
C: Domantas Sabonis

Key Bench Contributors: Malik Monk, Keon Ellis, Doug McDermott, Nique Clifford, Devon Carter

Doug Christie could quickly be on the hot seat if the Kings are as far off contention as projected. Sacramento has an ill-fitting roster. A core of Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis, and Dennis Schröder is not going anywhere in the Western Conference.

It is a group that might be around .500 in the East. Out West, they would be fortunate to sneak into the bottom half of the play-in tournament. A string of poor roster decisions has left Christie as the latest Kings coach to be in an impossible position.

How are they getting stops? Will the offense be anywhere near good enough to compensate for a porous defense? There is not much to like about this Kings team as a neutral. They are one of the least watchable teams in the league.

Prediction: 30–52
Divisional Projection: 4th
Ceiling: Bottom Half of Play-In

Phoenix Suns

Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Devin Booker
SG: Jalen Green
SF: Grayson Allen
PF: Dillon Brooks
C: Mark Williams

Key Bench Contributors: Nick Richards, Khaman Maluach, Royce O’Neale, Jared Butler

Phoenix won 36 games with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal last season. Two of the three have departed. This roster is potentially the second-worst in the Western Conference.

Going under is more likely than hitting the over. Wins are going to be very rare if Booker misses a considerable period of time, and we have already seen what a Jalen Green-led offense looks like.

A Booker trade does not seem likely, both through a lack of interest in exploring that avenue from Phoenix and the player’s desire to stick with the team that drafted him. It should be the priority for the Suns, and perhaps it becomes one if this season goes as badly as projected.

Prediction: 25–57
Divisional Projection: 5th
Ceiling: 10th Seed

Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop