NBA MVP and Award Predictions 2025–26: Early Favorites and Best Bets

The NBA award races produced some surprising winners in 2024/25. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t the favorite for MVP 12 months ago, and Victor Wembanyama’s deep vein thrombosis allowed Evan Mobley to collect his first Defensive Player of the Year honor.

Dyson Daniels excelled as a Hawk to win Most Improved Player. Fourth overall pick Stephon Castle beat out the competition to win Rookie of the Year. No NBA award is a foregone conclusion before the start of the regular season, with injuries, underperformance, and breakouts having a major impact on the voting. So let’s take a look at the early landscape and some nice bets we are currently leaning toward.

MVP

It was a two-horse race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić last season. The betting markets project the aforementioned pair as the two favorites once again, with Luka Dončić as their most realistic challenger.

Adored by betting markets in preseason and never finishing higher than third when votes are counted, Dončić is the only player other than Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić at a price shorter than +1200.

Victor Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo sit at +1200. Wemby’s Spurs are unlikely to be good enough for the Frenchman to have a realistic MVP shot. Giannis’ chances depend on if he can carry a subpar Bucks roster to a top-four seed in a very weak east.

The Greek Freak, who has received MVP votes in nine consecutive seasons, is going to put up massive numbers. With so few legitimate contenders in the Eastern Conference, it’s feasible the Bucks win 48+ games. And there’s momentum in the narrative stakes with Antetokounmpo showing loyalty to a small market. 

Jokić remains the most obvious pick. Gilgeous-Alexander could suffer from voter fatigue. Dončić’s Lakers might not win enough games. Giannis, though, is where the value really lies.

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1200)

Defensive Player of the Year

Is it a foregone conclusion Wembanyama wins Defensive Player of the Year? He was the overwhelming favorite when deep vein thrombosis ended his season prematurely in 2024-25. He’s fully healthy and has seemingly spent the offseason working on all facets of his game.

Injury and the Spurs being a subpar defense is the only risk. San Antonio was a top-10 defense in Wemby’s minutes last year, though, and we know he’s going to put up big-time box score stats. His stocks were far clear of any other player in 2024-25.

Chet Holmgren and Amen Thompson are rightly seen as Wemby’s nearest rivals by the sportsbooks. Both the Thunder and Rockets project to be elite defensive teams. No Thunder player stood out sufficiently challenge Wembanyama or Evan Mobley last season, but that could change if Holmgren meets the games played required.

Thompson, a ferocious one-on-one defender with fast hands and shot-blocking instincts, could lead the non-Wemby players in stocks. Ime Udoka’s Rockets are always going to play hard. 

Of the outsiders, Jalen Suggs is intriguing if the Magic can be a top-three defense. It’s likely down to Holmgren and Amen Thompson against Wembanyama, however. 

Pick: Victor Wembanyama (-200)

Rookie of the Year

It doesn’t take long to sum up the Rookie of the Year race. If he’s healthy, Cooper Flagg will win the award and it won’t be close.

Kyrie Irving’s injury should ensure a reasonable usage rate. Dallas has the shooting to take the pressure off Flagg as a spot-up option, and his defensive skillset should be on full show next to Anthony Davis.

Hansen Yang is going to be a popular longshot wager after his Summer League showing. Ace Bailey has opportunities aplenty on the rebuilding Jazz and will be my favorite if Flagg is sidelined. Kon Knueppel could be a standout on the Hornets.

Pick: Cooper Flagg (-225)

Most Improved Player  

The Most Improved Player market is the most wide-open of all awards before the season. Andrew Nembhard is the +900 favorite, with the all-action guard set for a much greater offensive workload in Tyrese Haliburton’s absence.

The Thompson twins are looming. Ausar likely has more opportunity to flourish than Amen will on the Durant-led Rockets. There’s also greater room to grow for Ausar, as Amen’s breakout started last season.

Scoot Henderson, mentored by Jrue Holiday, could finally take a long-awaited leap. There were flashes of improved playmaking last year, and Chauncey Billups’ team are going to play hard on the defensive end. Shaedon Sharpe is also a candidate to consider as the physical tools are there, and he should get enough shots up in Portland to put up big offensive numbers if he stays healthy. 

With stars missing, players on the Pacers and Celtics are obvious picks here. It’s likely to be a group effort in compensating for their respective absences, so it’s better to look at a specific player in the right situation. 

Pick: Ausar Thompson (+2000)

Sixth Man of the Year

De’Andre Hunter is a surprising betting favorite. It’s far from guaranteed the Cavs will keep Hunter coming off the bench, particularly with Max Strus set to miss the start of the season. There’s a good chance he doesn’t meet the requirements for this award.

Naz Reid is going to be in contention again after winning the award two seasons ago and finishing fifth in 2024-25. Bradley Beal and Jordan Clarkson are going to get plenty of minutes off the Clippers’ and Knicks’ benches, respectively.

At +1200, Jared McCain returns from injury likely to fulfil a bench role. Philly needs his scoring when Joel Embiid and/or Tyrese Maxey are off the floor. McCain is going to get a decent share of spot starts when the Sixers’ stars are resting/injured. It’s a formula that has guided previous bench scorers to this award.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, perhaps the shrewdest free-agent signing of the summer, is a real value at +2500. Atlanta’s wing spots are occupied by Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, and Jalen Johnson. Alexander-Walker is going to be Quin Snyder’s Swiss-army knife, filling in in a variety of lineups. His defense will earn him plenty of clutch minutes.

Shooting 38.5% on 3.9 three-point attempts per game over the last three seasons, look for Alexander-Walker to play a vital role for Atlanta. Snyder should lean heavily on defensive lineups with Daniels and NWA covering for Trae Young.

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+2500)

Coach of the Year

With the Magic poised to finish in the top three in the Eastern Conference, Jamahl Mosley is understandably the Coach of the Year favorite. The question, though, is whether Orlando’s success would be attributed to Mosley rather than the front office trading for Desmond Bane.

Highly regarded by voters and a former runner-up for this award, Snyder’s upwardly mobile Hawks could play their coach into contention. JB Bickerstaff’s Pistons have upside thanks to their young core, but was 2024-25 Bickerstaff’s best shot at Coach of the Year?

After a calamitous 2024-25, maybe Nick Nurse gets credit for the Sixers being on track. It’s not far-fetched that Philly is a top-four team in the east given the overall talent on its roster.

It’s far more likely this award goes to a coach in the east. The top Western Conference spots are locked in, and it’s hard to see a team like the Blazers making a massive leap. If the Spurs sneak into the top six, Mitch Johnson could be in contention, but that would likely be down to an MVP-level campaign from Wembanyama. 

Pick: Quin Snyder (+500)

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