The wild-card matchups weren’t decided until game 162 of the regular season. In the American League, the Tigers late season swoon forces them onto the road, and the Blue Jays won the tiebreaker with the Yankees, preventing New York from the round 1 bye.
In the National League, the Reds surged down the stretch to book their second postseason appearance since 2013, and the star-studded Dodgers are faced with the jeopardy of a best-of-three series after finishing with fewer wins than the Phillies and Brewers.
Here are our best bets for this week’s wild-card series:
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians: Guardians Win Series (-104)
‘Momentum’ from the regular season might not be a proven phenomenon. Head-to-head records aren’t that informative for the playoffs either.
Still, the Guardians overtaking the Tigers, a truly historic turnaround, and beating them five times in six September games has to mean something ahead of their best-of-three wild-card series at Progressive Field.
Tarik Skubal starting Game 1 is obviously a huge advantage for Detroit, but the Tigers have just thrown away a massive lead and were miles behind the Guards in wRC+ and bullpen ERA in September.
A shaky Detroit bullpen could cost them Game 1, even if Skubal dominates. Cleveland’s home-field advantage could just tip this series in their favor as Detroit was only 40-38 on the road.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees: Over 2.5 Games (-108)
Boston went 9-4 against the Yankees in the regular season. That doesn’t guarantee the Red Sox will win two out of three in New York, but it shows they can go toe-to-toe with this Yankees team.
Add in Garrett Crochet starting the series opener, and we’ve got the makings of a highly competitive series. The biggest challenge for Boston is whether their lineup can keep the pace that the Yankees are likely to set, but this New York bullpen should give them some run-scoring opportunities late in games.
The Yankees’ southpaw duo of Max Fried and Carlos Rodon will go a long way to deciding this series. The pair excelled in their last regular-season starts against Boston, and they are tabbed to pitch in the first two games of this contest.
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers Win 2-0 (+142)
Cincinnati needs its starting pitching to be dominant to even take this series to three games. The Reds scored over 100 fewer runs than the Dodgers in the regular season and had a wRC+ 25 points lower than Los Angeles in September.
Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani are expected to start for the Dodgers. Their bullpen has been far from perfect in the second half, and that’s where they could find themselves in some trouble if Cincinnati’s lineup musters some offense.
The Dodgers constructed this roster for the playoffs. In front of a packed Dodger Stadium, this is where their stars can shine brightest.
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs: Padres Win 2-1 (+290)
Potentially the hardest to predict of the four series, the Cubs are missing rookie sensation Cade Horton, and the Padres have had a mixed few weeks, with only a 21-20 record over their final 41 games.
Both teams were elite offenses in September. Chicago’s bullpen has been inconsistent throughout the year yet finished the year strong. San Diego’s relief corps is arguably the best all-around group in baseball.
Horton’s absence really hurts the Cubs. A diverse, deep bullpen could be the difference maker for the Padres in a short series.
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