With around a month of the MLB regular season to go, it is an opportune time to reflect on the state of each of the six major awards. Three of the six seem like foregone conclusions, yet that can quickly change with an injury or a couple of big-time performances from potential rivals. The other three awards promise to be tightly contested throughout September. There have been twists and turns throughout the last few weeks, and more are expected before the regular season concludes.
*All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook on August 27
AL MVP
Cal Raleigh -110
Aaron Judge -110
Bobby Witt Jr. +17500
Jose Ramirez +17500
For most of the year, Judge winning another MVP was a foregone conclusion. His brief injury and the following slump have opened this race up, however, even though Raleigh has also seen one of the biggest drops from his first half OPS to his second half mark.
The Yankees outfielder has a bWAR lead over Raleigh, but the narrative has shifted toward the Mariners catcher. He has the most home runs in a season by a catcher in big-league history and has an outside shot at breaking Judge’s record for the most homers in AL history.
Team record should not matter too much, but it might with how close this race is. Seattle and New York are in playoff positions as it stands, yet it feels like this is Raleigh’s award if the Mariners win the division, particularly with the Yankees at risk of missing out on the postseason.
Pick: Cal Raleigh (-110)
NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani -10000
Kyle Schwarber +1600
Manny Machado +10000
Unlike the AL, the NL MVP race is wrapped up. Ohtani is in a class of his own, despite conceding nine earned runs across his last two starts. He leads the NL in OPS+ and has the most total bases across either league.
Schwarber is having an excellent season, but he does not provide the defensive or baserunning value to really rival Ohtani. Machado will not finish in the top three, considering he has an OPS below .700 over the last month.
When Ohtani is hitting at this level and pitching, he is almost unbeatable in an MVP race. It would take an OPS+ north of 200 along with elite baserunning and defense to make it into a serious conversation.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani (-10000)
AL Cy Young
Tarik Skubal -125
Garrett Crochet +100
Hunter Brown +3000
Jacob deGrom +5000
Skubal conceding six runs to the Athletics has reinvigorated the AL Cy Young race (even though five of them were unearned). Crochet has been excellent over the last couple of months and has gained momentum in award conversations.
It is still firmly advantage Skubal, however. He has the edge in ERA, FIP, WHIP, strikeouts per nine, and walks per nine. The Tigers’ ace would need to suffer a season-ending injury or a string of disappointing outings to miss out on this award.
Crochet has no margin for error. He has had a brilliant year, but he is going to have to settle for the runner-up spot.
Pick: Tarik Skubal (-125)
NL Cy Young
Paul Skenes -10000
Cristopher Sanchez +1400
Freddy Peralta +5000
Matthew Boyd +5000
Zack Wheeler being ruled out for the year and Sánchez conceding 10 runs over his last three starts has ended any debate over the NL Cy Young. Skenes did not quite have the volume to win the honor in 2024, but there is nothing stopping him in 2025.
No pitcher in MLB history has had a better ERA+ than Skenes across the first two seasons of his career. He leads the majors by that metric in 2025 and his 6.2 bWAR is the most of any pitcher.
The strikeout numbers are not as gaudy as his rookie season, but pitching to a bit more contact has helped him to be effective throughout the year. Averaging six innings per start, he is going to finish right around the 200-inning mark.
Pick: Paul Skenes (-10000)
AL Rookie of the Year
Nick Kurtz -20000
Roman Anthony +2000
Jacob Wilson +10000
Of hitters with over 300 plate appearances in 2025, Judge is the only player with a better wRC+ than Kurtz. His walk rate is elite, and only two players have a better home run to fly ball ratio.
Everything about Kurtz’s rookie year has been spectacular. He makes soft contact less often than anyone else in the majors. Over a 162-game regular season, he would have 48 home runs.
Anthony has impressed as a rookie, and so did Wilson in the first half. No one has been close to what Kurtz has delivered for the Athletics. He has immediately become one of the best overall hitters in the majors and will be in the middle of their lineup for years to come.
Pick: Nick Kurtz (-20000)
NL Rookie of the Year
Cade Horton +170
Drake Baldwin +185
Isaac Collins +220
Matt Shaw +3000
A catalogue of players have had stints as the NL ROY favorite. Horton has quietly appeared atop the betting market after posting a 1.11 ERA and 2.90 FIP since the start of July.
Collins has a .431 OPS over the last two weeks. Baldwin is riding a five-game hitting streak and has avoided any overly detrimental slumps so far this season, carrying an .800 OPS since July 4.
It is a true three-horse race for this award. Collins has a narrow edge over Baldwin in bWAR (2.6 to 2.3). Horton is only at 1.0 bWAR, and has a 3.88 xERA, which indicates his recent run is unlikely to last until the end of the season.
Pairing consistency at the plate with above average catcher defense, Baldwin is the best value of the top three at the time of writing. This is going to go down to the final weekend of the season.
Pick: Drake Baldwin (+185)
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop
Author
