Last-minute Fantasy Guide: Avoid Mahomes, Achane and more

If you’re like me and some of your drafts are scheduled up to the very last minute before Thursday’s kickoff, don’t fret. I’ve got you covered with my most updated list of players to avoid at their current price. 

The key to winning your matchup each week is having consistent players on your roster. “Boom or bust” can be good, but having guys who consistently average double-digit fantasy points per week will help you win more often. Knowing who’s battling injuries and who could lose out on volume because of their team situation should also help you decide who to draft. Here are the top five players at their current price to avoid drafting.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes is a Hall of Fame QB, but not for fantasy reasons of late. Recently, the Chiefs win games mainly through a really good defense and timely scoring drives led by Mahomes. He’s a winner, but he no longer racks up a ton of fantasy points. He finished as the 11th-best QB last year and is ranked as the #6 QB in this year’s draft. Mahomes is simply too high if you’re looking for a QB to rely on every week.

Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield are all ranked lower than Mahomes in the draft, and all posted better fantasy numbers in 2024. Part of what hurt Mahomes last year was his lack of downfield passing. WR Rashee Rice missed most of last season, which was a big part of that, but he will also miss the first six games of this year while he serves a suspension. There are many better QB options out there at this price, so steer clear of Mahomes.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Achane had a great season last year, but can he replicate it? He’s already battling an injury before the start of the season, and the Dolphins’ offensive line has only gotten worse since the end of last season. Achane’s small frame doesn’t help his case for staying healthy either. He is RB7 according to Sleeper, but there are plenty of other options ranked below him. If he’s healthy all season, he’ll be good, but that’s the rub. I just don’t trust him to stay on the field long enough to justify this price. Instead, target lower-rated RBs like Bucky Irving or Kyren Williams, who I prefer much more at their current ADP than where Achane is sitting.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

London is entering his fourth year in the league, and only last year did he look like a certified WR1. Sleeper currently has him ranked as the 17th overall player in the draft, ahead of other notable pass catchers like A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Mike Evans. That’s far too high given London’s track record. Don’t get me wrong, I think London is a nice player to have on your team, but don’t get caught in the hype and avoid the mistake of drafting him too high. 

Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Adams is 32 years old and currently ranked as WR19 on Sleeper, higher than D.K. Metcalf, DJ Moore, and even Devonta Smith. Adams figures to be the WR2 on the Rams this year behind Puka Nacua. Much like Drake London, Adams is a fine WR to add to your team, but there are better options ranked above and below him you should target instead.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Kamara finished as RB9 last year and is ranked as RB15 in the draft on Sleeper, but he’s 30 now, and that’s typically the age when RBs start to fade and see fewer carries. He missed the last three games of the 2024 season with a groin injury, and he battled a broken hand and cracked ribs early in the year. New Orleans doesn’t have many offensive weapons besides Chris Olave and Kamara, and I project the Saints will be among the league’s worst offenses. I expect Kamara to take a big step back in production this year, so draft with extreme caution.

Parting Shot

These players are simply overpriced for where they’re going in drafts and are more likely to disappoint than deliver. It’s not that they can’t help your roster, but the value isn’t there at their current ADPs. In PPR formats, leaning WR-heavy is often the safer path, so consider targeting reliable, high-volume receivers early like AJ Brown, Ladd McConkey, or Terry McLaurin, and wait until the middle rounds to consider veterans like Davante Adams. For running backs, prioritize younger, healthier options over names like Kamara and Achane. Draft smart, and don’t pay a premium for risk when steadier production is available.