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Re-evaluating World Series Betting After the Trade Deadline
Get the latest updates on how the MLB trade deadline reshapes World Series odds. Stay ahead with expert analysis for informed betting in 2025!
The 2025 MLB trade deadline featured a surprise reunion in Houston, a roster overhaul in San Diego, and various other league-altering moves. Plenty of big names stayed put (Joe Ryan and Luis Robert Jr., to name two), but it was still an enthralling trade deadline.
More teams opted to sell than expected. The midfield in World Series betting either went all in or moved on from big-league players. As a result, FanDuel doesn’t have any teams between +3000 and +11000 to win this year’s Fall Classic.
Thirteen teams are given a realistic shot at winning the World Series later this year.
Active Preller Elevates Padres
San Diego has tumbled to +1900 to win the World Series after acquiring Mason Miller, J.P. Sears, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Nestor Cortes, and Freddy Fermin. A.J. Preller, renowned for his aggressiveness in the trade market, paid a high prospect price, including Leo De Vries, but he clearly sees an opportunity with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado at their respective peaks.
Preller addressed the bullpen with Miller, reinforced the rotation with Sears, added a big bat in O’Hearn, and improved the outfield depth with Laureano. Long term, Miller might be stretched to become a starter, but that’s a question for the offseason.
For now, San Diego is three games behind the Dodgers and looking to seize its opportunity to not only reach the playoffs but go on a deep run.
Twins Throw in the Towel
Minnesota was one of the teams to give up on the season. Twelve games back in the division, it was probably the right long-term decision for the franchise. Keeping Ryan at least gives them a chance to go again in 2026.
No longer a factor in World Series betting, the Twins have drifted to +55000. They were as short as +2500 earlier in the season at various sportsbooks, but it has been a massively disappointing year.
Carlos Correa, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Harrison Bader, Brock Stewart, Willi Castro, and Danny Coulombe all departed. The initial deal to move on from Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak signaled the sell-off was coming. The fact they had so many in-demand players but are so far out of contention reflects what a frustrating year it has been in the Twin Cities.
Mariners Bolster Offense
Like Preller, Jerry Dipoto is known for his activity in the trade market. Dipoto isn’t as prone to big swings as Preller, but he’s always looking for ways to improve his roster. He did just that at the deadline, acquiring Eugenio Suárez, Josh Naylor, and Caleb Ferguson.
Suárez is having a career year. Naylor brings batting average and decent power. Seattle was already one of the better offenses in the American League, but this should elevate them to another level.
It heaps the pressure on the Astros, who have seen little change in their World Series odds after reacquiring Carlos Correa. Seattle has moved to +1600 at FanDuel, now holding the ninth-shortest Fall Classic odds across both leagues.
Phillies Improve Bullpen
After signing David Robertson as a free agent, the Phils picked up Bader, Duran, and Matt Manning on the trade market. Philadelphia’s bullpen is a perennial issue, and Duran and Robertson go a long way toward addressing that.
Bader is a more than useful option in the outfield with Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler underperforming. He’s a better hitter than his reputation might suggest, and he remains one of the best defenders in baseball.
As of August 1, the Dodgers are the only team with shorter World Series odds than Philadelphia. This team is absolutely stacked.
Giants Sell Off
Everything seemed to be pointing in the right direction for the Giants when they landed Rafael Devers. It didn’t work out that way. On a 13-26 slide, Buster Posey decided to pull the plug.
Instead of adding to the rotation or picking up an outfield bat, Posey traded away Mike Yastrzemski, Camilo Doval, and Tyler Rogers. The Giants also saw James Tibbs III, who was sent to Boston in the Devers deal, end up with the Dodgers.
Just a few weeks ago, San Francisco was around +2000 to win the World Series at various sportsbooks. Now they’ve drifted to +13000 at FanDuel. This is another lost season for the Giants, likely making it just one playoff appearance in the last nine years.
Mets Revamp Bullpen
The additions of Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, Gregory Soto, and Cedric Mullins represent an almighty deadline haul for the Mets. The price was high, especially for Rogers, but these deals are transformative. Helsley, Rogers, and Soto join Edwin Diaz at the back end of the bullpen, and Mullins offers a sizeable upgrade over Tyrone Taylor in center field.
New York’s World Series odds have not shifted dramatically yet, but at +1000, they are expected to at least keep pace with the Phillies, who also made significant moves before the deadline.
David Stearns constructed some all-time great bullpens during his time in Milwaukee. He looks to have repeated that feat here, which could prove vital down the stretch as New York’s rotation begins to tire.
Yankees Join Bullpen Race
David Bednar, Jake Bird, and Camilo Doval are the kind of bullpen upgrades the Yankees needed. Where the Tigers played it safe with their relief corps after some recent struggles, Brian Cashman was fully committed to fixing a bullpen that ranked 29th in ERA in July.
Amed Rosario, Jose Caballero, and Austin Slater provide useful position-player depth. Yankees fans are rarely happy with the front office unless the biggest names are brought in, but without trading for Ryan, this still has to be seen as one of the best possible deadlines.
Fixing their bullpen alone is enough to make them the clear favorites in the American League, especially with Aaron Judge expected to return soon from the injured list.
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