Hedmann’s Campus Card: CFB Week 11 Picks and Predictions

A 2-2 record in Week 10 gives us some momentum after a tough 1-3 showing in Week 9. Duke squeaked out a one-point win over Clemson to cash our underdog moneyline, and the Sooners-Volunteers over 55.5 hit comfortably in a 60-point shootout. On the flip side, Georgia couldn’t quite cover against rival Florida, and our gut pick was way off as Wake Forest got crushed 42-7 by Florida State, missing the +9.5 line.

Week 11’s slate isn’t as loaded as some recent weeks, with several lopsided matchups on the board. Still, we found one ranked matchup that feels solid, a spread that looks sneakily generous, an under that should cash, and a gut check that leans on one of my favorite underrated offenses this season.

Best Moneyline Bet: Texas A&M Aggies (-260 at Missouri Tigers)

Normally, a -260 moneyline isn’t exciting value, especially between ranked opponents, but this one is an exception. The Aggies remain undefeated and dominant, while Missouri is limping into this matchup with key injuries.

The Tigers will be without starting quarterback Beau Pribula and will turn to freshman Matt Zollers. Tight end Brett Norfleet is also questionable, which only adds to their offensive challenges. A&M has a few health concerns too, but when you replace a veteran QB with a freshman in a game this big, -260 starts to look like a gift.

Best Spread Bet: Duke Blue Devils (-9.5 at UConn Huskies)

If this season has taught us anything, it’s that Duke is for real. UConn, meanwhile, continues to hover around the lower middle tier, competitive but rarely convincing.

A -9.5 spread may look steep, but the Blue Devils are the far superior team. This sets up as a game that could get out of hand quickly. Expect a two-touchdown margin or more and a comfortable Duke cover.

Best Over/Under Bet: LSU at Alabama (Under 49.5)

LSU’s season has unraveled fast. With a fired head coach and athletic director and a struggling offense, Garrett Nussmeier’s stock has taken a big hit.

This rivalry usually brings fireworks, but this year feels different. Alabama’s defense should control the tempo, and LSU simply doesn’t have the guns to push the total high. Expect a grind-it-out matchup around 27-14, which makes the under the smart play.

Gut Check Bet: Oregon Ducks at Iowa Hawkeyes (Over 40.5)

I nearly took Iowa +6.5, but this total felt like the stronger angle. Iowa has been a tough, scrappy team all season, and they can score more than people think.

Oregon will do its part offensively, but if the Hawkeyes can hold serve and put up even a modest total, this game should easily climb past 50 points. Calling it a gut check might be underselling it as this over feels like great value.

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