Hedmann’s Campus Card: CFB Week 10 Picks and Predictions

Going 1-3 last week did not feel great, and it’s never easy watching your picks whiff repeatedly. USF took a three-point loss to Memphis, Virginia failed to cover the spread in a one-point win against a struggling UNC team, and Georgia Tech’s 41-point outburst on Syracuse sent the game flying past the 53.5 under. The one bright spot? That wild Miami -30.5 line hit. Looks like it might be time to start trusting the gut a little more moving forward.

For Week 10, we’re switching it up. We’re backing a team we’ve bet against multiple times this season, taking the spread in a lopsided conference matchup, and betting the over in a game where both teams light up the scoreboard. And for the gut check, we’re rolling with an underdog that’s still not getting the respect it deserves.

Best Moneyline Bet: Duke Blue Devils (+110 at Clemson Tigers)

This isn’t a lock by any means, but the value is too good to ignore. Clemson is playing better than it did early in the year, but the Tigers still can’t seem to close out games against solid competition. Duke, sitting at 4-3, comes off a bye week after nearly knocking off undefeated Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils have had time to rest, reset, and game-plan for Clemson.

Clemson has the worse record and hasn’t looked like the better team at any point this season. Getting plus odds here feels nice.

Best Spread Bet: Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5 at Florida Gators)

Florida is 3-4, working under an interim head coach, and barely escaped Mississippi State with a two-point win before its bye week. Somehow, that same Florida team is only a 7.5-point underdog against No. 5 Georgia.

This line almost feels like a mistake. Georgia handled previously undefeated Ole Miss by eight points, and Florida is dealing with more key injuries. If the Bulldogs could cover against Ole Miss, they should have no problem doing the same here.

Best Over/Under Bet: Oklahoma at Tennessee (Over 55.5)

If you had blindly bet the over in every Tennessee game this season, you would be undefeated. The lowest combined score in any Volunteers game this year is 57 in their loss to Alabama. Every other game has topped 60 points, including three where Tennessee alone would have covered this line.

Yes, this is a ranked intraconference matchup, and those can trend slightly lower-scoring, but when every data point says “over,” there’s no reason to change course now.

Gut Check Bet: Wake Forest (+9.5 at Florida State)

Florida State has completely collapsed since its 3-0 start, losing four straight while spiraling against worse competition each week. The latest loss to 3-4 Stanford was particularly ugly, and Mike Norvell’s seat is getting scorching hot again.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest is 5-2, fresh off a one-point win against SMU, and continues to play tough against quality opponents. The Demon Deacons lost by a single point in overtime to undefeated Georgia Tech and have shown poise late in games. This line feels inflated, and Wake looks like the right side of a generous spread.

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