Most divisions bring at least some excitement each year. The AFC South was the exception in 2024.
The Texans regressed, the Titans were the worst team in football, and both the Jaguars and Colts revealed more flaws than strengths. The arrivals of Cam Ward and Travis Hunter inject some intrigue, and the Texans have the potential to climb back toward contention. Still, the preseason hype around several of these teams feels overstated. Let’s take a closer look at the one team with real playoff potential and the rest of the field.
Houston Texans
The 2024 season was a reality check for Houston. The offense fell apart as the year wore on, and C.J. Stroud, after a stellar rookie campaign, hit a sophomore slump largely because of poor protection. He rarely had time to operate, and that inconsistency carried over into the rest of the roster.
For 2025, the Texans must find a way to keep Stroud upright. The defense remains talented, with a strong pass rush, but it cannot continue to carry the burden of extended minutes on the field. With Joe Mixon sidelined for the short term, and possibly longer, the run game is an open question. That puts even more pressure on Stroud to produce in the passing game.
Do the Texans Have the Pieces Up Front?
When an offensive line struggles, the solution usually isn’t to trade away your best player. Yet that is what Houston did, sending left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington in March. Tunsil was both the team’s best lineman and a steady veteran presence, so his departure raised eyebrows.
The Texans are counting on rookie Aireontae Ersery, who impressed in camp, to step in immediately at left tackle. That is a big ask. Outside of Tytus Howard, the rest of the line is also new, leaving the entire unit under scrutiny.
Can Nick Chubb Regain His Form?
With Mixon unavailable, Nick Chubb is expected to shoulder the load. Chubb is coming off a devastating knee injury that ended his 2024 season early. At 29, and after years as the lone bright spot on bad Browns teams, he faces questions about how much he has left. If he can recapture even part of his prime form, he could stabilize the Texans’ offense and buy Stroud time to find his rhythm.
The Verdict
This is the best team in the weakest AFC division. They are clear favorites to win the South, but not viewed as serious contenders beyond that. If the offensive line develops quickly, Houston could elevate its ceiling, but until then this roster projects as a playoff participant and little more.
2025 Projected Record: 9–8 (O/U: 9.5)
2025 AFC South Division Ranking: 1st
Tennessee Titans
With the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, Tennessee selected Cam Ward, quarterback out of Miami. That pick defines the season.
The Titans have struggled badly since moving on from Mike Vrabel, and the quarterback transition away from Ryan Tannehill has been messy. Now Ward, a high-ceiling, high-variance passer, steps in as the Day 1 starter after Will Levis suffered a season-ending injury.
Should Ward Be Starting Right Away?
Ward is not a traditional polished prospect. Instead, he thrives on improvisation, a style that has worked for players like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen but requires refinement to succeed in the NFL.
The debate is whether a raw rookie should be starting immediately or sitting to develop. First overall picks are expected to play right away, but Ward will be doing so behind an average offensive line and with a roster that lacks depth. Expect flashes of brilliance mixed with inevitable growing pains.
Is Brian Callahan the Right Coach?
Few expected Brian Callahan to be hired as head coach in 2024, and his first season did not change minds. His offense, supposedly his specialty, was among the worst in football. His inability to develop Will Levis raised even more concerns.
Bringing in another young quarterback under his watch feels like a risk. Ownership may be hesitant to admit a mistake, but keeping Callahan could prove costly if Ward’s progress stalls.
The Verdict
Ward brings hope, but the Titans are not built to win yet. This year is about evaluating their new quarterback and then building around him. Entertainment value may be there, but victories will be scarce.
2025 Projected Record: 6–11 (O/U: 6.5)
2025 AFC South Division Ranking: 2nd
Jacksonville Jaguars
Each year seems to bring renewed optimism in Jacksonville, and each year that optimism fades. Trevor Lawrence was expected to become a superstar, yet his career has stalled.
The roster features a strong defensive front seven and an exciting rookie in Travis Hunter, but too much of the depth chart remains mediocre. New head coach Liam Coen brings a modern offensive philosophy, but Lawrence faces another system change after years of instability.
Are the Jaguars Using Travis Hunter the Right Way?
Hunter’s unique skill set as a two-way player makes him a generational talent, but the Jaguars have opted to start him at wide receiver. While they have not ruled out defensive snaps in the future, the plan remains unclear.
Critics argue that limiting him to offense, even in specific packages, misses an opportunity. A defensive-first approach with gadget offensive plays may have made more sense. Coen’s offensive background likely influenced the decision, but the jury is out on how this experiment unfolds.
Is This Lawrence’s Make-or-Break Year?
Lawrence is now one of the highest-paid players in the league, tied with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow at $55 million annually. That level of compensation demands elite production, and he has not delivered it.
While his early struggles could be blamed on instability and poor rosters, that excuse no longer holds. If he fails to elevate his play this year, Jacksonville may have to consider moving on in 2026.
The Verdict
Hunter brings excitement, and Coen provides fresh energy, but this story is all too familiar. Until proven otherwise, the Jaguars remain more hype than substance.
2025 Projected Record: 6–11 (O/U: 7.5)
2025 AFC South Division Ranking: 3rd
Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones has resurfaced in Indianapolis, one of the few places where he might realistically start.
The Anthony Richardson era has been a disaster. His accuracy issues, durability concerns, and inconsistency have derailed the franchise. Now Shane Steichen turns to Jones, hoping to save his job. While the Colts have a defense with real talent, their quarterback situation overshadows everything else.
What’s Next for Richardson?
Richardson has already lost his starting job, and his reputation has cratered. He has struggled with accuracy, injuries, and even conditioning. A trade is possible, but the return would be minimal. The more likely scenario is that the Colts ride out his contract and hope for a turnaround.
How Will New Ownership Shape the Future?
Following Jim Irsay’s passing, Carlie Irsay-Gordon has assumed control as owner and CEO. She has long been involved in the organization, but she will now put her stamp on the franchise.
That could spell trouble for Steichen, who already looks vulnerable. His move to Jones suggests a short-term push for wins, but it is hard to see a sustainable path forward. Overworking stars like Jonathan Taylor may buy a few wins, but it risks long-term damage.
The Verdict
The Colts face another season of transition. Jones may stabilize the offense slightly, but this roster is headed for change.
2025 Projected Record: 5–12 (O/U: 7.5)
025 AFC South Division Ranking: 4th
Final Thoughts
This is effectively a one-team division. Houston will win the AFC South, whether by merit or by default, while the other three franchises remain stuck in various stages of transition.
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