College Football Playoff Picture: Chaos, Conspiracies, and Conference Clashes

It’s becoming clear that the college football world is conspiring against sportswriters to make our lives as hard as possible. With three weeks of regular-season play remaining, there are twelve two-loss teams in the AP Top 25, and every single one of them still has a path to the playoff.

Since each Power Four conference gets an automatic bid, here’s how the playoff picture breaks down by league.

ACC

Tuesday’s CFP rankings release will tell us how the committee really views the ACC.

This is easily the weakest Power Four conference, with an average strength-of-schedule rating of 62. The issue is simple: there’s only one one-loss team and four two-loss teams. Depending on how things shake out, the ACC could end up with just one playoff spot through the autobid.

After last season’s two-loss SMU team made it in over multiple three-loss SEC schools, only to get blown out, the committee may think twice before giving the ACC more than it earns this time.

SEC

Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss. That’s likely the answer in the SEC. If a fourth team makes it, it will probably be the winner of Georgia vs. Texas.

At season’s end, the best three-loss SEC team will have to worry about being jumped by a possibly worthy ACC or Big 12 squad, such as Miami or BYU. With an average strength-of-schedule ranking coming in at an impressive 12.5, the SEC should get the most bids to the playoff, but that doesn’t guarantee the committee will see it the same way.

Big Ten

There are seven at-large bids available, and most of them should come from the SEC and Big Ten.

At this point, Ohio State, Indiana, and likely Oregon have all but punched their tickets to the playoff based on remaining schedules. Michigan and USC still have a shot, but Michigan still faces the #1 Buckeyes. The Big Ten, for now, is the easiest conference to project.

Big 12

The Big 12 will likely get no more than two playoff teams.

After defeating BYU in Lubbock, Texas Tech is in the driver’s seat and should reach the Big 12 Championship. Their most likely opponent will come from a crowded group that includes BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and Utah.

The second championship berth could come down to a tiebreaker, so it’s too early to call. But expect Cincinnati vs. BYU to serve as a de facto elimination game.

Group of Five

Tulane’s 38-32 win over Memphis only made things murkier in the AAC, which remains the best Group of Five conference. With five teams sitting at 4–1 or 5–1 in league play, the AAC Championship is wide open.

Still, the Group of Five team with the best playoff odds right now is James Madison University out of the Sun Belt. While the AAC cannibalizes itself, JMU sits alone atop its conference. If the Dukes are ranked higher than the eventual AAC champion, which seems likely at this point,  they’ll claim the Group of Five playoff spot. Tuesday night’s CFP rankings release will tell us how the committee views them.

Notre Dame

Whether anyone agrees with it or not, Notre Dame is ranked No. 10 in the current CFP rankings. If the Irish win their final three games, they should make the playoff.

They pass the eye test, too. Since losing their first two games by one score each, Notre Dame has won every contest by 15 points or more.

Projected Playoff Bracket

Receiving Byes

1. Ohio State
   
2. Indiana
   
3. Alabama
   
4. Texas A&M
   

First-Round Matchups

(9) Oregon vs. (8) Notre Dame

(12) James Madison vs. (5) Ole Miss

(10) Texas vs. (7) Georgia

(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) Virginia

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