Four of the six MLB award races have clear betting favorites at the All-Star break. There is still plenty of time for twists and turns, however, with teams yet to reach the 100-game mark.
AL MVP
Aaron Judge -600
Cal Raleigh +360
Tarik Skubal +9000
Raleigh’s historic regular season has injected some intrigue into the AL MVP discussion. The switch-hitting catcher has made it a two-man race, though Judge remains the overwhelming favorite.
With a 178 wRC+, Raleigh has been a far better hitter than anyone other than Judge. Judge, though, is 41 points ahead of Raleigh by that metric and holds a 1.2 fWAR advantage.
Raleigh could win this award even if Judge stays healthy. His defensive value could shrink the WAR gap, and his three-homer lead needs to widen. Voters could shift toward Raleigh if the Mariners star finishes with 60 home runs.
Best bet: Aaron Judge -600
NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani -800
Pete Crow-Armstrong +700
Juan Soto +1700
Kyle Tucker +5000
Ohtani’s return to the mound has effectively ended any NL MVP drama. If he stays healthy, he is on track to win his second straight NL MVP. His 168 wRC+ is second only to Will Smith, and his value as a pitcher will only grow over the final months.
This conversation gets more interesting if Ohtani becomes a DH-only player again. Given his injury history, it is entirely possible that the Dodgers scale back his pitching workload.
Soto has a 155 wRC+ on the season and has outperformed Ohtani in that category since May 1. His odds have shortened considerably but still offer better value than Crow-Armstrong’s higher-strikeout profile.
Best bet: Juan Soto +1700
AL Cy Young
Tarik Skubal -210
Garrett Crochet +260
Jacob deGrom +850
Hunter Brown +1200
Skubal and Crochet are tied with a 2.23 ERA. Skubal leads the league in fWAR and FIP and holds a wide lead in K-BB%. Unless voters get creative or fatigue sets in, the Tigers lefty should win this award if he stays healthy.
Crochet, deGrom, Brown, and Max Fried are all having excellent years. DeGrom’s ERA is in the mix, but his peripherals are well below his previous peaks. Brown allowed ten earned runs in his last two starts before the break, knocking him out of serious contention.
That said, this is a good time to back Brown with his odds drifting. Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball at the moment and deserves to be favored, but injury risk is always a variable in Cy Young races.
Best bet: Hunter Brown +1200
NL Cy Young
Zack Wheeler -125
Paul Skenes -105
Cristopher Sanchez +2000
Logan Webb +3500
Ranger Suarez +3500
Wheeler has overtaken Skenes atop the NL Cy Young odds. The two are poised to battle it out over the final two months, as no other contender looks likely to break in.
After a slow start by his standards, Wheeler has been dominant. His K-BB% leads all NL pitchers by a wide margin, and only Sonny Gray has a better ERA since May 1.
Wheeler tops the pitching+ charts and has stellar expected metrics. He has also proven he can handle a full Cy Young-level workload. With Skenes yet to pitch deep into a full season, Wheeler offers better value at current prices.
Best bet: Zack Wheeler -125
AL Rookie of the Year
Jacob Wilson -105
Cam Smith +160
Nick Kurtz +370
Roman Anthony +1700
Wilson owns a .555 OPS over the past month. His aggressive, low-walk approach means ups and downs are likely. Given his shaky defense at shortstop, it is fair to question the sustainability of his early-season success.
Smith and Kurtz both have more compelling cases. Smith combines good contact skills, patience, and elite speed. Kurtz has carried over his Triple-A success with 17 home runs already.
Anthony also deserves mention. He holds a .777 OPS over 31 MLB games with a 55.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 12.1 percent walk rate. He is the best longshot in the market right now, though Kurtz remains the safer bet.
Best bet: Nick Kurtz +370
NL Rookie of the Year
Jacob Misiorowski -210
Drake Baldwin +340
Agustin Ramirez +1300
Hyeseong Kim +1300
It only took five starts for Misiorowski to become an All-Star and Rookie of the Year favorite in a soft NL rookie class.
Ramirez and Kim are not strong contenders. Ramirez’s bat has been solid, but his defense behind the plate has been a liability. Kim has poor underlying metrics across the board. Chase Burns (+2500) is a more interesting flier despite a 6.19 ERA through four starts.
This award comes down to Misiorowski or Baldwin. The market has overreacted to Misiorowski’s quick rise, while Baldwin continues to deliver quietly. With an .830 OPS and top-tier xwOBA, Baldwin offers real value as a steady, all-around option.
Best bet: Drake Baldwin +340
Parting Shot
While a few awards feel all but decided at the break, others remain wide open with value to be found. Injuries, slumps, and second-half surges will reshape the landscape in the weeks ahead. Whether you are betting the favorites or eyeing longshots, now is the time to trust your reads, lock in value, and get ready for the stretch run.
*All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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