Big 12 Matchups, Odds and Power Rankings for Week 4

In 2025 the Big 12 is a 16-team league that lost legacy anchors Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC on July 1, 2024, and added Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado, programs that bailed on the Pac-12 amid its media rights meltdown, while the Big 12’s own ESPN/Fox extension gave it stability and a national time zone footprint. On the field, the league’s top tier can hang with anyone: Utah, Iowa State, and Texas Tech are all sitting inside the AP Top 20 this week and have looked the part, physical, efficient, and explosive enough to go toe to toe with SEC or Big Ten contenders on a neutral field. The first three weeks may have brought new zip codes but some familiar bruisers remain: Utah’s line of scrimmage edge traveled, Texas Tech turned every series into a track meet, and Iowa State kept stacking wins with special teams’ pinpoint accuracy under pressure. With conference play beginning next weekend, here’s a quick look at every team, who they are, what they’ve done, where they’re headed, and how the books see them for Week 4.

1. Iowa State (4-0) Idle

Backstory & Snapshot: Matt Campbell brought continuity and a poised QB in Rocco Becht into 2025 and it shows. The Cyclones play complementary ball on both sides of the gridiron owning field position, nailing field goals when it matters, and a defense squeezing the air out of fourth quarters. 

Early Season Recap: An opening win over Kansas State in Dublin set the tone, the Cy Hawk stayed cardinal and gold thanks to a Kyle Konrady 54 yard field goal, and a tricky road trap at Arkansas State turned into a workmanlike survive and advance. The slate is pristine and this team looks like the real deal.

Prognosis: November relevance feels real; the bye arrives before the trench war with Arizona.

The Odds: Bye (no line).

2. Utah (3-0) hosts Texas Tech

Backstory & Snapshot: New league, same line of scrimmage edge under Kyle Whittingham. With the Cam Rising era closed, Devon Dampier is the catalyst; the defense still hits like a sledgehammer ready to punish any mistakes. Rice Eccles remains one of the sport’s great amplifiers. 

Early Season Recap: A statement at UCLA bled into a clinical second half pull away vs. Wyoming. The Utes haven’t been in scramble mode yet, which is exactly how they like it. 

Prognosis: Contender DNA. Texas Tech’s visit is a pure credibility check for both.

The Odds: Utah is a short home favorite (-3.5) over Tech across the major books. Utah may be good, but I’m thinking Tech plus points may be a lock for the weekend.

3. Texas Tech (3-0) at Utah

Backstory & Snapshot: Joey McGuire’s identity is speed with purpose, and Behren Morton has the keys. The offense stretches you 53⅓ yards wide, and the pass protection has held up better, which is huge for road tests. 

Early Season Recap: The Red Raiders detonated Oregon State 45-14 which blew by the -3.5 FanDual had them at pre-game, with Morton spinning four TDs despite a long weather delay. The defense is generating takeaways too rather than just racing to outscore. Prognosis: Top tier offense travels, but this is the altitude exam.

The Odds: Tech is a live underdog by a field goal plus depending on book.

4. Arizona (3-0) Idle

Backstory & Snapshot: Brent Brennan kept last year’s spark and added even more grit: downhill run game, space efficient throws, and a defense that rallies and tackles.

Early Season Recap: At 3–0 for the first time since 2015, the Wildcats leaned on RB Ismail Mahdi to close out Kansas State on the road Friday night. 

Prognosis: A line play team that travels. The trip to Ames after the bye is a tone setter.

The Odds: Bye (no line).

5. Houston (3-0) Idle

Backstory & Snapshot: Willie Fritz’s second year looks like a stability project paying off: efficient pro style offense, fewer penalties, and a defense that wins third down without blitzing its soul out. 

Early Season Recap: The Cougars handled Rice, then put together a composed Big 12 opener vs. Colorado. 

Prognosis: Maybe not flashy, but sturdy. Clean football keeps Houston in the thick.

The Odds: Bye (no line).

6. BYU (2-0) at East Carolina

Backstory & Snapshot: Kalani Sitake tilted the program toward defense and the run game while easing freshman QB Bear Bachmeier into more responsibility. Special teams are quietly excellent. 

Early Season Recap: A 69-0 demolition of Portland State and a 27-3 throttling of Stanford reflected that identity: win field position, lean on downhill runs, ask the QB to convert the big third and six. 

Prognosis: The ceiling rises with explosives, but the floor is higher than last year.

The Odds: Cougars are laying roughly a touchdown on the road at ECU.

7. TCU (2-0) hosts SMU

Backstory & Snapshot: Sonny Dykes refreshed the defense and re-centered the offense on rhythm and space. Josh Hoover is distributing, not forcing, and the front is tackling cleaner. 

Early Season Recap: A 48-14 cruise at North Carolina played like a proof of concept; ACU didn’t slow the tune up. 

Prognosis: Pointing in the right direction. Two game tell is coming: rivalry week with SMU, then a road test at Arizona State.

The Odds: Frogs are right around a touchdown favorite in most rooms.

8. UCF (2-0) hosts North Carolina

Backstory & Snapshot: Scott Frost’s return has been about tempo with intent and a defense that is leaner and faster. The Knights stretch you horizontally, then hit verticals when eyes drift. 

Early Season Recap: Escaped a plucky Jacksonville State, then poured 68 on NC A&T with the subs getting work and Over bettors getting paid. 

Prognosis: We still need a Power 4 data point, and here it comes.

The Odds: UCF is laying about a touchdown at home against UNC, total in the high 40s.

9. Arizona State (2-1) at Baylor

Backstory & Snapshot: Kenny Dillingham’s third season is portal powered and QB centric with Sam Leavitt. The defense bends but is chasing more takeaways. 

Early Season Recap: Late heartbreak at Mississippi State, then a composed 34-15 reset over Texas State. 

Prognosis: Explosive but volatile; Waco under the lights will be a stiff test.

The Odds: Baylor by a field goal-ish across books, total hovering near 60.

10. Baylor (2-1) hosts Arizona State

Backstory & Snapshot: Dave Aranda bet on vertical offense again with OC Jake Spavital and QB Sawyer Robertson, and the sparks are back. When clean, the Bears can score fast. 

Early Season Recap: After a stumble at Auburn, Baylor stunned then No. 17 SMU in double OT behind Robertson’s 440 yards and four scores. 

Prognosis: If pass protection holds, the trajectory is upward.

The Odds: Bears installed as small home favorites with a shootout leaning total.

11. West Virginia (2-1) at Kansas

Backstory & Snapshot: Rich Rodriguez’s homecoming has WVU leaning into a throwback run game and a defense that sets edges and rallies. 

Early Season Recap: The Backyard Brawl went blue and gold in overtime thanks to Tye Edwards’ short yardage muscle and a final defensive stand. 

Prognosis: QB steadiness is the swing factor; the rest looks bowl solid.

The Odds: Mountaineers are double digit dogs in Lawrence for a conference showdown.

12. Kansas (2-1) hosts West Virginia

Backstory & Snapshot: Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks are in the expectation era now, with a strong leader on offense in QB Jalon Daniels, and they are deeper on defense than the brand suggests.

Early Season Recap: Took care of business twice, then the Border War got away late at Missouri, exposing a few explosive play leaks. 

Prognosis: Bowl baseline with a chance to chase eight wins if the defense tightens.

The Odds: Kansas is a solid home favorite in the 11.5 to 12.5 pocket.

13. Cincinnati (2-1) Idle

Backstory & Snapshot: Scott Satterfield is still assembling the identity with portal QB Brendan Sorsby. The defense is frisky in the red zone; the offense is searching for pace.

Early Season Recap: Nebraska nipped them in a neutral site opener, then two wins steadied the start. 

Prognosis: Middle tier right now with room to climb.

The Odds: Bye (no line). Watch for conference play Sept 28 at Kansas in a sold out Jayhawks stadium.

14. Colorado (1-2) hosts Wyoming (late night)

Backstory & Snapshot: The Buffs are my alma mater so always a hometown favorite. Sadly, they arrive for the show ready to play and deliver about 50 percent of the time. Year 3 for Deion Sanders without Shedeur or Travis, so the roster skews younger, the offense is finding an anchor and the QB carousel is real. Ryan Staub got the Houston start. Checkout highlight reel here. 

Early Season Recap: Georgia Tech clipped them in Week 1, Delaware was a reset, then Houston controlled the conference opener as the Buffs searched for rhythm.

Prognosis: Growing pains with upside if the QB room stabilizes.

The Odds: Buffs are a two touchdown home favorite vs. Wyoming, total mid 40s.

15. Kansas State (1-3) Idle

Backstory & Snapshot: Chris Klieman’s bet on Avery Johnson’s youth has meant flashes and frustration. The front still hits; the explosiveness is not there consistently.

Early Season Recap: A narrow loss to Iowa State in Dublin, a grind fest loss to Army, and a Friday night slip against Arizona have the Wildcats playing from behind early.

Prognosis: Too tough and talented to stay this low all year, but the climb is steep.

The Odds: Bye (no line).

16. Oklahoma State (1-1) hosts Tulsa (Fri)

Backstory & Snapshot: Mike Gundy’s program identity is steadiness and offense; Week 2 in Eugene was a jolt. The Cowboys need to run it, protect the ball, and simplify on defense. 

Early Season Recap: The Ducks poured it on in a 69-3 rout after an opener the Pokes controlled. This is about response as much as strategy. 

Prognosis: Pride week. A cleaner Friday would reset the mood.

The Odds: Oklahoma State is nearly a two touchdown favorite at home on Friday night.

Weekend Scene & Places To Be

Circle the coolers, grill up the breakfast burritos. Tailgate radar is ticking hot in several places:

Rice Eccles: Where altitude and noise tilt the field, Texas Tech and Utah promises to be a fun one

Fort Worth: Tune in for the last nostalgic sizzle of the Iron Skillet with TCU facing SMU 

Waco: Under the lights for ASU-Baylor and plenty of vertical stretching expected

Folsom Field: Late for a sleepy then lively Boulder backdrop, protective Flatirons in the distance. Do not be fooled, the Boulder bubble is real. 

Lawrence: Jayhawks Stadium should hum too, with Kansas’ offense testing a surly WVU front.

From The Books

Chalk looks locked in three spots: Kansas over WVU, Colorado over Wyoming, and Oklahoma State over Tulsa, each priced around double digits. 

True Toss-Ups: Texas Tech at Utah and Arizona State at Baylor profile as matchups in the one score window, and SMU-TCU carries rivalry volatility even with TCU favored by close to a touchdown. 

Live dog longshots with backdoor appeal: WVU and Tulsa catching big numbers on the road; Wyoming with a total so low that one turnover can flip scripts.

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