Preseason is quickly turning into the real deal, and the Big 12 feels like a nightclub with a velvet rope and a line down the block.
With six teams ranked in the AP Top 25, Houston may prove to be the bouncer with a championship-game scowl, ready to avenge April’s heartbreaking loss after a killer tournament run. BYU shows up in designer NIL with the nation’s number one freshman recruit and a transfer standout, while Texas Tech rolls back in with what may be the league’s loudest star.
This may be the deepest conference in college hoops to start, but staying power is where champions are made. Here’s how we stack the top 10 in the Big 12 as opening night draws near.
1) Houston Cougars (AP #2)
Kelvin Sampson’s culture has built an impressive program, and he returns with three seasoned players fresh off a national championship final. Senior point guard Milos Uzan runs it like a pro, Emanuel Sharp returns with volume scoring and grown-man shoulders, and Joseph Tugler owns the paint as the league’s reigning defensive stopper.
The roster adds two freshmen ranked in the top 15, and if they can match the veterans’ intensity in practice, this team could rise to AP #1 in a hurry. The preseason coaches’ poll made it plain: Houston is everyone’s problem again.
The Cougars open at home against Lehigh on Monday, Nov. 3, and their first real proving ground could be in Birmingham versus Auburn on Nov. 16. Let the madness begin.
2) BYU Cougars (AP #8)
BYU is a vibe right now. Kevin Young brought NBA pacing and modern spacing in Year 1 and then added what may be the golden boy of a standout freshman class across the league in AJ Dybantsa, a number one national recruit with slasher-to-shotmaker range.
Joining him will be Baylor standout Robert Wright III, who comes over as a sophomore with a sweet NIL deal. Veteran wing Richie Saunders returns as the efficient bucket and culture compass, with Keba Keita’s rim protection and Dawson Baker’s shotmaking rounding out a rotation that can play big, play small, and still guard.
Opening night is a show worth watching: Nov. 3 vs. Villanova at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a neutral-site launch worthy of the hype during the 2025 Hall of Fame Series.
3) Texas Tech Red Raiders (AP #10)
Grant McCasland’s team is equal parts sandpaper and silk, and AP Pre-season All-America JT Toppin is the face of it, scoring through contact and erasing mistakes at the rim.
The Red Raiders start Nov. 4 against Lindenwood in Lubbock before stepping up in class, with a defense that should already be operating like a well-oiled machine: no layups, no freebies, bring your legs.
They lose Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian and pull three transfers into the projected starting lineup, but if Toppin can carry through on his NIL payday and lead during this transition phase, helping the team gel by January, they have a shot at another Elite Eight run.
4) Arizona Wildcats (AP #13)
Tommy Lloyd returns three projected starters, including 7’2” center Motiejus Krivas, who can control the paint at will, and leans into his recruiting skills, adding the No. 8 and No. 9 ranked freshmen.
Arizona marries pace with shot discipline, toggling between downhill guards and a frontcourt that sprints to the rim. The Wildcats will be comfortable in grind-it-out battles or track meets, and their spacing looks cleaner than last February.
They will be tested early in Vegas versus Florida, joining BYU and Villanova during the 2025 Hall of Fame Series on November 3.
5) Iowa State Cyclones (AP #16)
Iowa State’s secret is no secret anymore: they play defense like it’s a religion. T.J. Otzelberger has turned Ames into one of the toughest places in the league to score.
The Cyclones return three starters, including point guard Tamin Lipsey, who again quarterbacks the press-and-pounce attack, while Joshua Jefferson adds muscle to the frontline.
Offensively, Iowa State’s growth hinges on improved shot creation and better late-clock execution. They open Nov. 3 at home versus Fairleigh Dickinson, but the real test will come just before Thanksgiving in Vegas vs. St. John’s on Nov. 24 at the 2025 Players Era Festival.
The early tournament has grown in 2025 with 18 teams competing for millions in NIL money. College basketball is evolving. Welcome to the new world.
6) Kansas Jayhawks (AP #19)
Bill Self is trying to rebuild with a freshman star in Darryn Peterson, the headline recruit with three-level scoring ability, but losing Hunter Dickinson will leave a legitimate gap.
Self will be putting the puzzle together this season with what looks like a brand-new starting five. The AP ranking may be a gift to Self, and they will have to prove worthy.
Kansas opens its regular season Nov. 3 vs. Green Bay in Allen Fieldhouse, often the sport’s loudest laboratory. The true test will be early against UNC in Chapel Hill on Nov. 7. Expect a rebuilding year in Lawrence.
7) Baylor Bears
With a 20-15 finish and second-round exit from March Madness, Scott Drew enters his 23rd season and turns the roster dial to mix and match for a year that could go either way.
The Bears are starting over with high-profile transfers and No. 11 ranked freshman Tounde Yessoufou after losing marquee player Robert Wright III to BYU and VJ to the NBA.
In Waco, Baylor opens Nov. 3 vs. UTRGV and then faces true tests at the Players Era Festival (Creighton and St. John’s on Nov. 24–25). Keep an eye on how the freshman handles his debut.
8) Kansas State Wildcats
Jerome Tang is reshuffling in Manhattan with a brand-new roster, but if the talent travels, they could transcend the chaos.
With a 100-91 exhibition loss versus Mizzou this week, we know scoring likely won’t be the problem. Between European league players, All-American transfers, and NBA-level recruiting, Tang is giving it the old college try.
They open versus UNC Greensboro Nov. 4.
9) Cincinnati Bearcats
Wes Miller leans into grown-man depth and a brand-new backcourt to restart the Bearcats’ Big 12 climb. Veterans Day Day Thomas and transfers from across the league give Cincinnati a chance to reboot.
Six-foot-eleven transfer Baba Miller (FAU/FSU) stretches the floor and protects the rim. Add rugged scoring from Jalen Haynes (George Mason) and wing stopper Sencire Harris (West Virginia), and you can see why UC might climb past early-season limits.
The opener is set for Nov. 3 vs. Western Carolina at Fifth Third Arena, with Georgia State up next on Nov. 7, then Dayton on Nov. 1, providing three opportunities for chemistry to form. It’s going to be a work in progress for Cincy.
10) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Steve Lutz has injected scoring through the portal with a quicker guard room led by Kanye Clary (Mississippi State), returning sophomore Vyctorius Miller, and Jaylen Curry (UMass), plus wings who can space and switch.
The opener Nov. 4 vs. Oral Roberts in Stillwater should showcase the speed upgrade. OSU has its work cut out, but Lutz is a pro in the pseudo-amateur league and knows what it looks like to win.
The Rest of the Pack
The others, in one breath for now until they prove they deserve more print: Utah’s size can muddy up games, Colorado’s guard play pops when the pace spikes, Arizona State has spoiler energy with portal length, and UCF’s home gym remains a tough stop for anyone expecting an easy win.
In this league, Tuesday nights feel like Saturdays, and a three-game skid can hit anyone.
Futures Worth a Look
As of October 29, 2025, these are the projected conference winners come March. Keep an eye on changes as the season rolls forward, but expect Houston to be there.
FanDuel Big 12 regular-season winner: Houston +140, BYU +500, Texas Tech +550, Arizona +900, Kansas +750, Iowa State +800
BetMGM Big 12 regular-season winner: Houston +140, BYU +450, Texas Tech +525, Arizona +700, Kansas +700, Iowa State +800
Note: Odds move; we do not project or infer lines.
