Last Week: 1-4
Season Record: 20-23-2
If you are a big Seinfeld fan like me, you probably remember one of the all-time great episodes, “The Jimmy.” It centers around an arrogant guy who refers to himself in the third person, and before long George starts doing it too and finally blurts out, “George is getting upset!”
That is exactly what came to mind late Saturday night as it became clear we were heading for a 1-4 week. We started with a win, then dropped four straight, and honestly each loss surprised me in how it played out. More than once I found myself muttering, “Eric is getting frustrated!”
That is part of the grind. It happens every football season, but it still stings when you know you are putting in the work, breaking down matchups, studying the numbers, and trusting the same process that has delivered winning seasons in the past, only to get burned on the scoreboard.
But we are back and not flinching. We stay the course, trust the research, and know that the right calls pay off over time. The pendulum always swings back. And I have a feeling it swings our way this week. So let’s dive in.
Vanderbilt @ Texas (-1.5)
Vanderbilt is one of the best feel-good stories of the season, right up there with Indiana. Who can resist an underdog like the Commodores? Sitting at 7-1 with back-to-back wins over ranked opponents in LSU and Missouri is impressive. Quarterback Diego Pavia has been gritty, fearless, and fun to watch, and he will most likely have a seat in New York for the Heisman ceremony come December.
All that said, let’s look a little closer. The win over LSU was nice, but that Tiger team is in free fall, having now lost three of four and firing its head coach. The Missouri win was solid too, but Vanderbilt was fortunate to grab a late turnover and faced a backup quarterback for most of the second half after Beau Pribula’s ankle injury. And both of those wins came at home. Now Vandy has to travel to Texas, and the last time the Commodores went on the road, they lost by 16 in Tuscaloosa.
As much grief as this Texas team has taken, they are still 6-2, and their only two losses came on the road in one-score games. Now they are back home against a Vanderbilt squad that has just come through two emotional, physical battles. Asking them to win a third straight, this time on the road in Austin against a loaded roster, is simply too much.
Texas’ 13th-ranked defense will confuse and frustrate Pavia much like Missouri’s did, and the Longhorns offense, which produces nearly 100 more yards per game at home, should be more than fine against a Vanderbilt defense that is solid but not spectacular.
Vandy’s had a magical run, but that magic hits a wall in Austin. The Commodores finally run out of gas, and the Longhorns roll. Hook ’em and cash it.
The Pick: Texas -1.5
Oklahoma @ Tennessee (-3)
Oklahoma has been a fun story. Quarterback John Mateer is ultra-talented, has the Sooners sitting at 6-2, and head coach Brent Venables is off the hot seat for now.
But something has been off since Mateer got hurt earlier in the season and had to miss a couple games. He just is not the same quarterback he was before the injury. Early in the season, he was extending plays and picking up key yards with his legs. Since his return, he has totaled only 36 rushing yards across three games, and his passing rhythm has looked uncomfortable. Ole Miss controlled the game from start to finish in Norman last Saturday, exposing some real issues in Oklahoma’s protection and tempo.
The Sooners’ only two true road games this season have been against Temple and South Carolina, and neither of those environments compares to what they will face Saturday night at Neyland Stadium.
Tennessee is also 6-2, with its only losses coming against top-five teams Alabama and Georgia. The Vols bounced back nicely from the Alabama loss two weeks ago and absolutely dismantled Kentucky in Lexington last week. Josh Heupel has his best team yet. Quarterback Joey Aguilar ranks fourth in the nation in passing yards and leads the country’s ninth-ranked total offense.
Under the lights in Knoxville, even against a good Oklahoma defense, the Vols will take care of business. The crowd, the pace, and Heupel’s offense will be too much.
The Pick: Tennessee -3
USC @ Nebraska (+7)
USC is 5-2, Lincoln Riley has them playing good football, and their quarterback-receiver duo of Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon is one of the most exciting to watch in the Big Ten. They currently have the #1 ranked offense in the country and can score in a hurry. They are also coming off a much-needed bye week and should come into this game healthy and well-rested.
However, both of USC’s recent road trips ended poorly. They went to the Midwest to face Illinois and Notre Dame and lost both. Their only true quality win this year came at home three weeks ago against Michigan.
Nebraska, meanwhile, is fighting through the Matt Rhule-to-Penn State rumors, but this team has quietly become one of the more resilient groups in the conference. The Huskers are 6-2 with an impressive win over a 7-1 Cincinnati squad to open the season. Their only home loss was a three-point heartbreaker against Michigan in September. Memorial Stadium has been sold out for every game since 1962, and it will be loud and proud again Saturday night.
Nebraska has a top-15 defense and the second-ranked pass defense in the country, which gives them the ability to slow down at least some of USC’s explosiveness. On offense, quarterback Dylan Raiola continues to develop. He ranks in the top 30 nationally in passing yards and has become a respected leader both on and off the field.
The crowd, the defense, and Raiola’s poise give Big Red Nation a reason to storm the streets of Lincoln. I think Nebraska wins the game outright, so we are happily taking the points.
The Pick: Nebraska +7
Rutgers @ Illinois (-12.5)
Illinois has had some definite clunkers this season, getting demolished at Indiana 63-10 and again at Washington last week 42-25. However, both of those were on the road, and now they return home to host an up-and-down Rutgers team.
Greg Schiano has done a nice job bringing Rutgers back to respectability in his second stint in Piscataway, but this is still an average team at best. The Scarlet Knights have one of the worst defenses in the country, and while their passing attack has shown flashes behind quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, this matchup feels like a bad spot for them. This is their second straight road game, and while they escaped Purdue with a narrow win, Illinois is a much better team.
Quarterback Luke Altmeyer is top 15 nationally in passing yards and leads a dangerous Illinois passing offense. The Illini have been inconsistent, but their only home loss came against number #1 ranked Ohio State. They also have two quality wins this season over USC and Duke.
Rutgers’ four wins, on the other hand, came against 2-6 Purdue, two MAC opponents (Ohio and Miami (OH), and 1-7 Norfolk State. They can score a bit, but they cannot stop anyone, and Illinois has the weapons to make them pay.
I expect Illinois to force turnovers, play with some edge after the Washington loss, and keep their foot on the gas all afternoon in Champaign. The Illini get right at home and win big behind Altmeyer’s arm.
The Pick: Illinois -12.5
Navy @ North Texas (-5.5)
Navy is 7-0, sitting atop the AAC, and unsurprisingly leads the nation in rushing with nearly 300 yards per game. And let’s just get this out of the way now: North Texas’ run defense is straight up awful. They rank in the bottom ten nationally and have struggled all season to stop anyone on the ground.
That said, Navy’s résumé is pretty soft when you peel it back. Their only win over a team with a winning record was a 32-31 squeaker against 5-3 Temple, and each of their last four victories has come by ten points or less. They grind out games, but they are not blowing teams away.
North Texas, on the other hand, compensates for its defensive issues with the most explosive offense in the country. The Mean Green are averaging more than 45 points and 500 yards per game, and they can attack both through the air and on the ground. Navy’s defense is not even average, so this matchup plays right into North Texas’ strengths.
The Mean Green have won their seven games by an average margin of 28 points, and with South Florida’s loss to Memphis last week, they know a path to the Group of Five playoff bid is wide open. At home, in a high-energy atmosphere, and against a Navy team that won’t be able to keep up, this number feels too short. The Mean Green roll, and their CFP dream stays alive.
The Pick: North Texas -5.5
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