Bierman’s Best Bets: NFL Week 9 Picks

We continue to stay hot with our NFL picks, now posting a winning record in five straight weeks. I rarely stray from point spreads, but last week the rare under called me in the Bills-Panthers game, only to be burned by a late score.

So we’re back to three spread plays this week, all on home teams, and feeling good about keeping the streak alive while adding to our 58% winning clip. Let’s get into it.

Last Week 2-1
Season YTD: 14-10

Broncos @ Texans (-1.5)

Many wrote off the Texans earlier in the season after they opened with three straight losses, and the preseason AFC South favorites looked headed for a disappointing year. But this team has now won three of its last four, and what once held them back, the offense, is finally coming alive. Houston has averaged more than 28 points per game over that stretch.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud looks far more comfortable, and while the offensive line remains an issue and he is still taking too many sacks, his play has leveled up. Over the last four games he has averaged 256 passing yards with nine touchdowns and only two interceptions. Combine that with a defense that ranks number one in the NFL, and this team is starting to look dangerous.

They now host a 6-2 Broncos team that is solid but not nearly as good as its record suggests. One of Denver’s wins came at Philadelphia in early October, and they deserve credit for that. However, their other five victories have come against opponents with a combined 10-29-1 record, including the miracle comeback at the Meadowlands two weeks ago. Also of note, both of their losses have been on the road.

Second year quarterback Bo Nix has been steady but certainly not great, and this offense drops off significantly when away from Denver, falling from top ten to bottom ten in most key categories. The defense is still very good and will keep them in the game, but with Houston at home, riding momentum, and fielding the best defense in the league, I love taking the Texans and laying the small number here.

The Pick: Texans -1.5

Vikings @ Lions (-9.5)

Quarterback Carson Wentz filled in admirably the last few weeks for the Vikings, but we were all reminded why he has been a career backup and journeyman. Minnesota now gets back second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy, and they are hopeful he can reignite this offense, because they will need it. The Vikings have lost three of their last four and averaged fewer than 20 points per game during that stretch. Their three wins this season have come against the Bears, Bengals, and Browns.

Now they travel to Detroit to face what I believe is the best team in the NFL and a true Super Bowl contender. There are very few weaknesses on this Lions team, if any. In their three home games this season, the Lions have outscored opponents 110-40. Their defense, once maligned, is now top ten, and at home they are even better, allowing only 13 points per game.

And then there is the Lions offense, ranked third in the league in scoring, and capable of putting up points at will with Goff, Gibbs, Montgomery, and St. Brown leading the charge. Even better for Detroit backers, the Lions are coming off a bye week. Over the past two seasons, they are 2-0 following the bye and have averaged 44 points per game in those contests.

McCarthy will likely struggle to shake off the rust in his first game back, on the road, against one of the league’s most complete teams. It is a large number for an NFL game, but I really like the Lions to pull away and cover with ease.

The Pick: Lions -9.5

Chiefs @ Bills (+1.5)    

The Chiefs deserve a lot of credit. They started the season 0-2, everyone declared the King was dead, and now here they are, winners of five of their last six, with many now calling them the inevitable Super Bowl champions. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Patrick Mahomes has bounced back nicely this season, and getting wide receiver Rashee Rice back from suspension two weeks ago has given this offense a huge lift. The defense also deserves praise after allowing just 24 total points over their last three games.

However, those three games were at home, and this team is noticeably worse on the road. Two of their three losses have come away from Arrowhead, against the Chargers and Jaguars. Now they travel to Orchard Park to face the Bills Mafia in a Sunday afternoon showdown, and that will not be easy.

While the Bills have been inconsistent at times, they are still 5-2, with their only home loss coming by three points to the 6-2 Patriots. Buffalo had a much-needed bye two weeks ago, came out last week and crushed the Panthers 40-9, and will be ready for this grudge match. This AFC rivalry has produced some incredible games in recent years, and this one could again have major implications for playoff seeding and home-field advantage.

With all due respect to the Colts, these are still the two best teams in the AFC. Both are balanced, deep, and well-coached. But Kansas City is a different team on the road, and getting the Bills at home with points on our side is too good to pass up.

Pick: Bills +1.5

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