Bierman's Bets
Bierman’s Best Bets: College Football Week 1
Bierman’s Best Bets is back after a 58% win rate last season. Check out our Week 1 college football picks, including Boise State, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Miami, and TCU, with research-driven analysis to help Sandman Nation cash in all season long.
We’re back! After hitting 58% of our plays last football season, Bierman’s Best Bets returns to help pad the wallets of Sandman Nation. Each week throughout the college football season, we’ll bring you several of the games we love the most, backed by the same research, strong opinions, and confident picks that carried us last year. It was a great ride in 2024, and we’re ready to build on that momentum in 2025 with another season full of winners.
So with no further adieu, let’s get into the Week 1 picks, and we’ll start by heading to Florida for a Thursday night opening tilt.
Boise State (-6.5) at South Florida
I am all over Boise State this season. On paper, USF looks decent with 16 starters back from a 7-6 team, but don’t be fooled. Their six regular season wins last year came against horrendous teams, the best of which finished with only five wins. Their only victory over a team with a winning record was a 41-39 5OT shootout against 7-6 San Jose State in the Hawai‘i Bowl.
And when USF lost, they lost badly. Their six defeats came by an average of 24 points, with only one of those losses coming in single digits, a seven point setback against a terrible 4-8 Rice Owls team. So yes, they return a lot of starters and added a few solid transfers, and yes, they get this game at home. But there is no way a loaded Boise State squad fails to win this by more than a touchdown.
The Broncos are the clear Mountain West favorite at -135 to win the league, and it is easy to see why. They return 14 starters, including the best quarterback in the conference in Maddux Madsen and a veteran offensive line that should dominate up front. Ashton Jeanty is gone, but redshirt freshman Sire Gaines is already generating plenty of buzz as the next breakout running back. This offense ranked top 10 nationally in total offense last year and could be even better in 2025.
USF will not be able to keep up, even at home. I absolutely love Boise State to roll in this one and win by double digits.
The Pick: Boise State -6.5
Georgia Tech (-4) at Colorado
Let’s start by talking about the Buffs. Colorado lost Heisman winner and do-it-all star Travis Hunter, electrifying stud quarterback Shedeur Sanders, and a ton of offensive production. They return only three starters on offense, and while Deion Sanders gets a worse rap than he probably deserves, this team will definitely take a step back in 2025. Last year’s 9 – 4 record was solid, but in the three seasons prior to that this program went 4 – 8, 1 – 11, and 4 – 8. This program is far from consistently solid and the Buffs will be lucky to get back to a bowl.
On the other side, I really like what Brent Key is building in Atlanta. Georgia Tech brings back 14 starters, seven on each side of the ball. That includes senior quarterback Haynes King, a dangerous dual-threat playmaker with plenty of weapons and a solid offensive line to protect him.
Defensively, Tech was a top-50 unit in total defense last season, and with seven starters back they should be even better. That’s bad news for Colorado, who hasn’t even named a starting QB yet. It’ll either be journeyman Kaidon Salter, who comes over from Liberty, or true freshman Julian Lewis. Either way, I don’t see this offense moving the ball consistently in Week 1.
I absolutely love Georgia Tech’s over 7.5 wins as one of my preseason ACC best bets, and I expect them to set the tone right away in Boulder. The Yellow Jackets will smother Colorado’s brand-new offense, King will make enough plays, and Tech will leave with a convincing win and a cover.
The Pick: Georgia Tech -4
Auburn at Baylor (+2.5)
Baylor went 8–5 last season and they bring back a loaded roster with 18 returning starters, including 10 on offense. Senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson is the frontrunner for Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for more than 3,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions last season. This was a top-15 offense last year, and it should be even better in 2025. Defensively, the Bears are not elite, but they are above average and capable of keeping the team in every game.
Auburn, on the other hand, went 5–7 last year, and Hugh Freeze’s seat gets warmer with each loss. They return nine offensive starters and bring in quarterback Jackson Arnold, who transfers from Oklahoma. Arnold has some promise but struggled to lead what was a very mediocre offense in Norman. Auburn’s defense is the strength of the team and should keep them in striking distance for a while, but asking them to go on the road in Week 1 against a battle-tested Baylor squad is a tall order.
Bottom line: I expect Baylor to win this outright. Getting 2.5 points at home against a team that didn’t even make a bowl game last year feels like a gift.
The Pick: Baylor +2.5
Notre Dame at Miami (+2.5)
Miami finished last year as the number one scoring offense in college football, averaging 43 points per game. Yes, they lose quarterback Cam Ward, who went on to be the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft, but I am much higher on Carson Beck than most. Over the last two seasons Beck has quietly put up impressive numbers: 7,450 passing yards, 52 touchdowns, and just 18 interceptions. He is not anywhere near as dynamic as Ward, but with seven returning starters around him and Mario Cristobal’s foundation finally in place, I expect Miami’s offense to stay explosive. The Hurricanes are a complete program again, and at home they will bring it.
Notre Dame is also in great shape under Marcus Freeman, who guided the Irish to the CFP National Championship Game last season. They return plenty of talent from that squad, but the one major question mark is at quarterback. They will be starting true freshman CJ Carr, and no matter how talented he is, that is a daunting assignment. A top-10 road matchup, in your very first college start, against a Miami team that went 10–3 last year and has the weapons to score in bunches is a tough ask.
I expect this to be a close game, but I lean to the Canes. With a veteran quarterback, home-field advantage, and a program that looks ready to take the next step, I like Miami to win outright. Getting points at home is just icing on that great tasting cake.
The Pick: Miami +2.5
TCU (-3) at North Carolina
Sonny Dykes is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. He is only two years removed from taking the Horned Frogs to the national championship game, and while they slipped in 2023, they stormed back with a 9 – 4 record last season. There are plenty of pieces in place for another step forward in 2025. Offensively, they will be steady and capable behind quarterback Josh Hoover. He may not be spectacular, but he can run the offense efficiently and put up points when needed. What excites me more is the defense, which returns eight starters from a unit that finished top 50 last year. I expect them to crack the top 20 this season.
The real reason I like this bet, though, is the opponent. North Carolina should be at least a touchdown underdog based on talent, but all the hype is around Bill Belichick strolling the sidelines in Chapel Hill. He will bring structure and discipline, no doubt, but I am not convinced his heart is fully in this. And while everyone is focused on the coaching change, the roster is not one that scares me.
Gio Lopez, a transfer from South Alabama, steps in as the new starting quarterback. That hardly inspires confidence, and this team brings back only 12 total starters. I think their offense will move the ball at times, but their defense was the bigger issue last year, giving up almost 30 points and 400 yards per game. Even with some improvement, they are not ready to slow down a physical and experienced TCU team.
I like the Horned Frogs to win this comfortably, spoiling Belichick’s college debut and covering with room to spare.
The Pick: TCU -3
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