Liverpool opens as the narrow favorite to win the Premier League in 2025–26, ahead of Arsenal and Manchester City. There is a sizeable gap behind the top three, followed by Club World Cup winners Chelsea at +800, and then a chasm to Newcastle at +2700.
Sunderland are favorites for relegation, while Erling Haaland has the shortest Golden Boot odds with Mohamed Salah set to miss several matches due to the African Cup of Nations.
So who’s got the edge, who’s got value, and who’s already in trouble? Let’s take a look.
Premier League Winner Odds
- Liverpool +190
- Arsenal +210
- Manchester City +290
- Chelsea +800
- Newcastle +2700
- Manchester United +3600
- Tottenham +4400
- Aston Villa +5500
The tragic death of Diogo Jota has cast a shadow over Liverpool’s summer. Ill feeling toward Trent Alexander-Arnold’s departure feels long ago, as the club looks toward the new season without Jota, one of the most beloved players in the squad.
Liverpool are the deserving title favorites after cruising to the crown in Arne Slot’s first season in charge. Their much-publicized pursuit of Alexander Isak is unlikely to go anywhere, but they have enjoyed a successful summer in the transfer market with the acquisitions of Giorgi Mamardashvili, Florian Wirtz, Milos Kerkez, and Jeremie Frimpong. Hugo Ekitike’s signing will be confirmed in the coming days.
Arsenal have already added Martin Zubimendi, Christian Norgaard, and Noni Madueke. They, like Liverpool, are days away from a new forward, with Viktor Gyökeres on the cusp of a move. Mikel Arteta’s side finished 10 points behind Liverpool last season. Injuries were a factor, as Arteta is more than happy to bring up, but Arsenal were also a distant second in expected goal difference (plus 25.5 compared to Liverpool’s plus 43.6).
Manchester City have picked up Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, and Rayan Aït-Nouri. Hugo Viana is reshaping the first-team squad for Pep Guardiola after their most disappointing season in almost a decade. Jack Grealish is one of the senior players likely to depart, with James Trafford and Morgan Gibbs-White identified as potential targets to fill the homegrown quota.
City were a long way off the pace in 2024–25, but they were still tied for the third-best expected goal difference. They were unbeaten with seven wins over the final 10 league matches of the campaign.
Chelsea, who schooled PSG in the Club World Cup final, are the last of the realistic title contenders. The Blues battled their way into the Champions League places after a mid-season slump and have once again been ultra-aggressive in the transfer market by acquiring João Pedro, Liam Delap, Estêvão, and Jamie Gittens. Xavi Simons and Jorrel Hato are still being pursued.
This young Blues squad has gained big-game experience under Enzo Maresca. They handled pressure well in the Conference League and Club World Cup. It’s probably a year early for Chelsea to be considered a serious title challenger, but the upside is there with the additions of Pedro and Delap as goal threats.
Newcastle’s underlying numbers were only a shade behind Chelsea and City. Yoane Wissa is a less exciting addition than Ekitike, but Anthony Elanga brings pace and ball-carrying ability to support Isak. The Magpies could play their way into the title race, which is more than can be said for Manchester United and Tottenham. Both teams have a long way to go before they warrant a place in this discussion.
City looks like the pick of the market as it stands, particularly with Salah set to miss several matches due to AFCON. Chelsea are worth keeping an eye on too, especially with their favorable early fixtures.
Premier League Golden Boot Odds
- Erling Haaland -105
- Mohamed Salah +430
- Alexander Isak +750
- Cole Palmer +1700
- João Pedro +1700
- Ollie Watkins +2500
- Bukayo Saka +3400
- Matheus Cunha +3400
- Dominic Solanke +3400
- Omar Marmoush +4400
- Liam Delap +4400
Haaland scored 22 goals in 31 matches last season. His 0.72 expected goals per 90 minutes was 0.05 ahead of Salah and 0.06 ahead of Isak. Salah won the Golden Boot with 29 league goals, but repeating that tally is extremely unlikely with the Egyptian potentially missing six league matches, including home games against Wolves and Leeds.
The last three seasons, primarily pushed by Haaland’s totals of 36 and 27 in his first two Premier League campaigns, have seen a rise in Golden Boot tallies. Between 2017–18 and 2022–23, no Premier League player scored more than 23 goals in a season. Even if he misses three or four matches due to injury, Haaland is almost guaranteed to break that threshold.
Salah’s total of nine penalties is also unlikely to be repeated. He had never scored more than six in a season before. With the missed matches due to AFCON and his strong underlying numbers, Isak looks like Haaland’s nearest rival for the Golden Boot.
Chelsea striker Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in expected goals per 90 minutes. Palmer takes Chelsea’s penalties and will start every match he is available for. The England international could be a decent outsider bet in this market after scoring 37 goals across the last two Premier League seasons.
Scorer of 19 goals in 2023–24, Dominic Solanke is the most appealing longshot here. Spurs are under new management with Thomas Frank replacing Ange Postecoglou in the dugout. Wissa ranked fifth in expected goals per 90 last season under Frank at Brentford.
Premier League Relegation Odds
- Sunderland -340
- Burnley -310
- Leeds -120
- Wolves +350
- Brentford +370
- West Ham +650
- Everton +750
- Crystal Palace +750
- Fulham +750
Sunderland have had a spectacular transfer window after selling Jobe Bellingham to Borussia Dortmund. Chemsdine Talbi, Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée, Habib Diarra, and Simon Adingra have been brought in at significant expense.
While this might look like Southampton’s misguided spending spree on unproven players a few years ago, these signings have more top-level experience. The Black Cats are also supplementing the youth with the grizzled veteran Granit Xhaka.
Leeds ran away with the Championship last season. They deserve the longest relegation odds of the newly promoted sides. Sunderland’s additions give reason for optimism on their return to the Premier League, and Burnley will be feeling similarly hopeful about their signings.
Wolves are the most at risk among the established teams. They had the worst expected goal difference of the sides that stayed up last season. Aït-Nouri and Cunha have departed. Their odds represent good value considering what the newly promoted sides have done in the transfer market.
Everton should be safe under David Moyes. The strain of European football could make life difficult for Crystal Palace, while Fulham have work to do in the transfer market after losing six of their last nine matches in 2024–25.
Some bettors might be tempted to back Brentford. A change of manager could destabilize the team, and they have lost several key players. The club is superbly run, though, and their recruitment has been consistently excellent, so they should be able to cope with the departures.
Parting Shot
There’s still time for transfers, drama, and preseason chaos to shake things up, but as of now, the Premier League futures market already gives us plenty to watch and a few smart angles to bet. Whether it’s Haaland chasing another Golden Boot, Chelsea trying to arrive early, or Brentford flirting with disaster, this season is set to deliver.
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