Three weeks into the 2025–26 NBA season, the picture is starting to take shape. It’s still far too early to lock in any MVP predictions, but the first few weeks have already reshaped the conversation and shifted the betting markets.
Early-season form matters more than people think, especially when injuries start to pile up. Just ask Anthony Edwards, who’s already missed several games and can’t afford many more if he wants to stay in the race.
The players at the top of the NBA MVP betting markets are much the same as they were on opening night, but the order has changed.
If we were voting on MVP today, here’s how our ballot would look:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Antetokounmpo tops the scoring list so far, averaging almost 34 ppg. He also leads the NBA in two-point attempts and free throws, while grabbing 12.3 rebounds per game. He’s got his highest rebounding rate since his second MVP season, along with having his best true shooting percentage, his lowest turnover rate, and highest assist rate.
The blueprint for the Greek Freak to win a third MVP hasn’t changed. He needs the Bucks to be competitive and finish in the top six in the Eastern Conference. Even in the weaker conference, that should be enough for Antetokounmpo to be taken seriously as a candidate after losing Damian Lillard in the offseason.
Milwaukee’s chances are entirely dependent on Giannis having an all-time great season, even by his sky-high standards. He will be almost impossible to beat if he continues to average 34/12/6 with the Bucks maintaining a +8 net rating in his minutes.
2. Victor Wembanyama
San Antonio being 7-2 with the fifth-best net rating isn’t all about Victor Wembanyama. The former first-overall pick has cooled off in November, with averages of 17/11/3/3.5 since the start of the month. His shooting percentages have dropped off massively.
The pace he started the campaign with was never going to be sustainable. His numbers were starting to look like Wilt Chamberlain’s. He’s still having an excellent season, though, and is averaging five stocks per game, while getting to the free throw line more than ever before.
The Spurs are doing a better job at competing in non-Wemby minutes. They are blowing teams away when he’s on the floor, with a +11.2 net rating. The defensive rating when Wembanyama on the court is better than 28 out of 29 other teams.
3. Luka Dončić
Even though he’s missed a few games, Luka Dončić still deserves a place on this hypothetical ballot. He’s leading the league in scoring at 37 points per game, while grabbing 10 rebounds, dishing 9.5 dimes, and setting a career-high of 2.3 stocks.
The Slovenian scored 40+ points in his first three games. He’s taking 12.8 free throw attempts per game, and he’s helped the Lakers get off to a 7-3 start, despite LeBron James’ absence.
Just two players are averaging more potential assists. Dončić has seamless chemistry with Austin Reaves, and while the Lakers’ defense puts a ceiling on what they can achieve this year, they are going to be a regular season wins machine if Dončić stays healthy.
4. Tyrese Maxey
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only player in the league averaging more points per game than Tyrese Maxey. With Joel Embiid still working his way back to full fitness and Paul George yet to debut, Maxey is also showing off his playmaking chops with a career-high 8.2 assists per game.
Leading the NBA in minutes and shots, Maxey’s workload might not be sustainable over 82 games, but his performances so far have vaulted him into the early MVP discussion. He’s shooting 44.1% from three on 9.3 attempts per game. That is Steph Curry stuff!
Still using his explosiveness to get to the rim at will, Maxey has become a complete scorer. Add in much improved playmaking and you’ve got one of the premier guards in the NBA.
5. Nikola Jokić
Nikola Jokić leads the NBA in VORP (by a sizeable margin), assist rate, win shares, and box plus-minus. He’s averaging the most assists per game and the most rebounds per game. Denver is second in net rating.
Perhaps fifth is a bit harsh for the three-time MVP. He remains the player most likely to win the award this season, but the four players above him have been that impressive and have earned their spots above him for now.
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