Last Week: 4-1
Season Record: 24-24-2
Well, two weeks ago we had a rough one but last week in this column I preached patience, process, and the importance of trusting the research, and thankfully it paid off with a nice 4-1 rebound week. I am still a little salty about the Tennessee game because I am convinced they were the better team, but too many mistakes cost them in what should have been a win.
This week we like four of five favorites and three road teams to cover. There are not a ton of marquee games on the slate, but we do get a top ten battle between #8 BYU and #9 Texas Tech. And of course, we could not resist jumping into the LSU-Alabama matchup. Lots of good stuff this week and hopefully more winners for us. Let’s dive in.
Tulane @ Memphis (-5.5)
Memphis sits at 8-1, ranked 22nd in the latest AP Poll, and in prime position to be this year’s Group of 5 representative in the CFP. The Tigers are undefeated at home and boast an impressive win over South Florida two weeks ago. They rank inside the top 25 nationally in offense and the top 50 in defense, making them a tough out for anyone.
Tulane has also had a solid year, entering at 6-2 with respectable home wins over Duke and Northwestern. The problem is that the Green Wave has not traveled well. Their only road wins came by two points at 2-7 South Alabama and against 2-6 Tulsa. Last week they were blown out by 22 at UTSA, and the struggles away from New Orleans have become a pattern.
This feels like another bad spot for Tulane. Memphis is top 20 in rushing offense, and the Green Wave defense ranks just 75th nationally against the run. Add in some quarterback uncertainty after starter Jake Retzlaff was benched during the UTSA loss, and it could get dicey fast. With a primetime Friday night crowd behind them, Memphis should control the game physically and emotionally.
There is a minor concern with quarterback Brendon Lewis, who left last week’s game late with a limp, and there hasn’t been an official update yet. So keep an eye on that, but assuming he’s good to go, I love the Tigers in this spot. Give me Memphis laying the points.
The Pick: Memphis -5.5
Georgia (-7.5) @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State picked up a 38-35 win at Arkansas last week to move to 5-4, but that came against a 2-7 Razorbacks team and snapped a four-game losing streak. One thing worth noting is that the Bulldogs have been a covering machine at 8-1 against the spread, often outperforming expectations and keeping games tighter than the oddsmakers project.
Georgia enters at 7-1, with its only loss a three-point setback at home to fourth-ranked Alabama in Week 5. The Bulldogs are undefeated on the road and will certainly show up strong in Starkville. They feature a top-15 defense and a top-30 offense, and quarterback Gunnar Stockton continues to look more comfortable each week.
This matchup heavily favors Georgia’s ground game. Mississippi State’s run defense has struggled all season, while Georgia’s backfield duo of Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier gives them a clear advantage. Expect a heavy dose of runs and long drives that wear down Mississippi State’s defense.
Mississippi State hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since early September, and that trend won’t change here. After a close call last week against Florida in the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party, Kirby Smart will have his team locked in and ready to roll. Look for Georgia to dominate the line of scrimmage and control this game from start to finish.
The Pick: Georgia -7.5
SMU (-10.5) @ Boston College
Boston College has lost eight straight games, with its only win coming in Week 1 against 1-8 FCS Fordham. Over their last five losses, the closest margin was 14 points and the average margin of defeat has been 23. The Eagles rank near the bottom nationally on both sides of the ball, sitting in the bottom 30 in total offense and bottom 15 in total defense. Simply put, they are one of the worst teams in Power 4 football right now.
SMU comes in hot, having won four of its last five, including an overtime comeback against Miami (FL). Five of the Mustangs’ six wins have come by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 17 points. Quarterback Kevin Jennings ranks seventh nationally in passing yards and leads one of the most dangerous pass offenses in the country. That spells major trouble for a Boston College defense that has been torched through the air all season.
The Eagles might hang around early, especially if SMU shows a small hangover effect after last week’s emotional win over Miami. But over a full sixty minutes, this number feels far too small. The Mustangs have too much firepower, and Boston College simply can’t keep up. I’ll gladly give the points here, even with SMU on the road.
The Pick: SMU -10.5
BYU @ Texas Tech (-10)
I occasionally write in this column about point spreads that look so good in one direction, we have to do a double take and at least consider the contrarian side. Several weeks ago we had a few of those, and most of them panned out. This one feels the same way, and I’m making the contrarian move with Texas Tech.
BYU is undefeated and ranked in the top ten, so why are the Cougars getting double digits on the spread? For starters, they’re dealing with several key injuries, including running back LJ Martin, safeties Raider Damuni and Tommy Prassas, and linebacker Siale Esera, all of whom could miss this game. And while the record looks great, their only truly impressive win came at home against Utah a few weeks ago. They also have a bad habit of falling behind early and needing to claw their way back, which will be difficult against an elite Red Raider team.
Texas Tech sits at 8–1 and is my pick to win the Big 12 and make some noise in the CFP. They’re coming off a 23-point road demolition of Kansas State, and their only loss was a four-point setback at Arizona State in mid-October. The Red Raiders return home for this one with the ESPN GameDay crew in town for the first time since 2008, and in their five home games this season they’ve outscored opponents by a combined 258-52. They rank third nationally in scoring offense and fifth in defense, and they know a win here would set them up for a clear path to the Big 12 title game with only UCF and West Virginia left.
BYU is coming off a bye, but it won’t matter much in Lubbock on Saturday. Texas Tech rolls to a double-digit win and covers comfortably.
The Pick: Texas Tech -10
LSU (+10.5) @ Alabama
If you’ve read any of my stuff or listened to my podcasts, you know I can’t stand Brian Kelly. So good riddance, sir. I genuinely believe the Bayou Bengals will be better without him, both long term and in this particular game. We saw what a coaching change can do at Florida, with Billy Napier out and interim Billy Gonzales stepping in last week to give Georgia all it could handle before falling by four. That was a different Gator team, and I expect a similar spark from LSU under interim head coach Frank Wilson.
The bye week came at a perfect time, giving Wilson an extra week to put his stamp on the program and get his players reenergized. Expect LSU to come out with fire and play with a chip on its shoulder against hated rival Alabama, especially with everyone counting them out.
And let’s be clear, this LSU team isn’t bad. They’re 5-3, but all three losses have come against top 15-ranked opponents in Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. Alabama is very good and also had a bye, but this rivalry tends to bring out the best in LSU. The Tigers still have pride, talent, and motivation, and getting 10.5 points is too many to pass up. I have a sneaky feeling this one stays tight into the fourth quarter, with LSU hanging around and maybe even threatening the outright upset.
The Pick: LSU +10.5
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