Nailing your NBA fantasy drafts doesn’t just come down to injury luck or landing the biggest names. Like is the case in other fantasy sports, NBA managers need to win on the margins to have success over the 82-game regular season.
Supplement your high draft picks with value adds in later rounds. Avoid using a mid-round draft pick on a bust. It’s easier said than done, but each year there are players to avoid in the earlier rounds and sleeper targets late on.
Potential Busts
Amen Thompson (ADP 20.5)
One of the best defensive players in the NBA and set to handle the ball more than he did last season, it’s easy to see why fantasy managers are high on Amen Thompson. It’s harsh to say Thompson is one of the players under pressure at this stage, but Houston’s ceiling is dependent on the super-athletic wing taking a leap.
The fourth overall pick two years ago, Thompson averaged 14.1 points. 3.8 assists, and 8.2 rebounds last season. This ADP has him being drafted before Alperen Şengün, LeBron James, Paolo Banchero, and Jaylen Brown.
That’s banking very much on Thompson’s upside. If healthy, Banchero could be 27/10/6. Brown is going to get up more shots than ever before with Jayson Tatum sidelined. Şengün is a far safer option among Houston players.
This is probably 10 picks too early for Thompson. It’s relying on a significant scoring leap and an uptick in assists, which is far from guaranteed with Kevin Durant and Şengün on the roster.
Myles Turner (ADP 46.5)
Being one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference, and coming off a Finals appearance, doesn’t mean Myles Turner should have such a high ADP.
Despite the big contract, there’s no guarantee Turner will see an uptick in his usage. He’s going to be in a spot-up role. Around 10 field-goal attempts per game is likely.
Unlike other centers in this draft-pick range, Turner is a very limited rebounder. He’s not a double-double threat like Jarrett Allen, Walker Kessler, or Jalen Duren. The blocks are useful, but he’s only averaged 1.9 per game over the last two seasons, which is a far cry from his career-high of 3.7 in 2020/21.
Josh Hart (ADP 51.5)
Josh Hart is heading to the bench with Mitchell Robinson set to partner Karl-Anthony Towns in the front court. Robinson has looked in great shape in preseason and seems primed to carry a heavier regular-season burden than he has in the past.
Hart, a favorite of Tom Thibodeau, isn’t a good fit with Robinson. Mike Brown looks set to cut Hart’s minutes considerably from the league-leading 37.6 per game he posted in 2024/25.
The rebounds and steals are going to drop from their previous marks of 9.6 and 1.5. He could average fewer than 30 minutes per game, and a line of 10/8/3 is very much in play.
Trey Murphy III, Zach LaVine, and Deni Avdija are currently being drafted after Hart.
Sleeper Picks
Reed Sheppard (ADP 111)
Reed Sheppard could be Houston’s starting point guard with Fred VanVleet ruled out for the year. Sheppard doesn’t need to be one of the NBA’s top point guards to represent value with an ADP of 111.
The 2024 third-overall pick only played 654 minutes as a rookie. Houston hasn’t moved to replace VanVleet with a veteran, so there are minutes and shots available for Sheppard. The Rockets surely need to see what they’ve got in Sheppard after using such a high pick on him.
A pure shooter and an active defender, Sheppard took 7.8 threes and averaged 2.8 stocks per 36 minutes in 2024/25. He’s a wild-card on the Rockets given how little we saw of him last season, but he’s a worthwhile late-round flyer in bigger leagues given his scoring upside and the possibility for defensive contributions.
Kevin Porter Jr. (ADP 91)
Someone other than Giannis Antetokounmpo has to score points for the Bucks. We know Kevin Porter Jr. isn’t shy about getting shots up. These are prime conditions for Porter to become a bit underrated, with Giannis destined to get the credit if Milwaukee underachieves.
Porter’s above-the-break threes fell at 41% last year. His assist rate was in the 92nd percentile among combo guards. Milwaukee is going to rely on Porter as a pick-and-roll partner for Giannis. He should cruise to five or six assists per game and will also need to set up Turner, Kyle Kuzma, and Gary Trent Jr.
Being one of two players who can generate offense in the starting five sets Porter up for some big assist numbers. Add in more threes and his shot-making talent, and we might have a top 50 fantasy player.
Shaedon Sharpe (ADP 90.5)
Shaedon Sharpe’s development hasn’t been as dramatic as Portland hoped when they drafted him in 2022. Still, Sharpe has shown signs of progress, including making 71% of his field-goal attempts in the restricted area last season.
The Blazers are looking to be competitive, as they were in the second half of last year, but the progress of Sharpe and Scoot Henderson remains a priority. Sharpe’s usage rate should be above 25%. It’s time to see what he can offer with 20+ field-goal attempts per game and more reps as a pick-and-roll ball handler.
There’s upside for Sharpe to average 25/7/5. He could be a league-winning wing if you can pick him up this late in your drafts.
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