Well, after digging ourselves into a hole through the first three weeks, we’ve bounced back with three straight winning weeks and now sit at 9-9. It’s been a nice run, but not nice enough. We want that 3-0 week, and we’re confident it can happen here.
Our biggest revelation this season? Do not back the Chargers. We’ve picked them three straight weeks, and guess which team has been involved in every one of our losses during that stretch? That’s right, the Chargers. So, you will not see the LAC–IND game on our slate.
This week, we’re backing two home teams and the better squad in a neutral-site game in London. Our three selected teams also happen to be a combined 11-7 against the spread this season, and we’re confident those positive trends will continue.
So, with no further ado, let’s get into today’s winning card.
Last Week 2-1
Season YTD: 9-9
Rams -2.5 vs Jacksonville (in London)
We went to London last week with the Chargers and came up short, but we feel better this time backing the other team from the city of angels. Jacksonville has been a great story so far, and I still like them to win the AFC South, make the playoffs, and cash the season win total we bet on them earlier this year.
The Jaguars have played in London more than any other team, going 6–5 all time, but I think that record evens out after Sunday. Head coach Liam Coen has done a fantastic job instilling a new culture, the running game ranks in the top ten, and QB Trevor Lawrence has been solid. Still, he is prone to mistakes, as shown by his five interceptions, and statistically this team is fairly average, coming it at 17th in total offense and 23rd in total defense.
The Rams are simply the better team. They rank fifth in offense and eighth in defense. QB Matthew Stafford leads the league in passing, and even with star WR Puka Nacua likely sidelined, I expect the fireworks to continue with the more than capable Davante Adams leading the way. This passing attack should have no trouble against the league’s third-worst pass defense.
The Rams are an elite team whose only two losses came by a combined ten points. And when they win, they do it convincingly, averaging a margin of victory in double digits. The Rams win this one comfortably.
The Pick: Rams -2.5
Falcons @ 49ers (-2.5)
Similar to the Jaguars, I’ve loved the Falcons this year and was high on them to win their division and hit the over on their season win total. They covered for us last week, so I’m all in on the Dirty Birds this season.
That said, they’re coming off a huge home win over Buffalo on Monday night and now have to travel cross-country on a short week to face a bruised but talented 49ers team. This Falcons team is good, but it’s also inconsistent, and the last time they went on the road, they were shut out 30-0 by Carolina.
Atlanta ranks first in the league defensively and second offensively, but those numbers drop significantly when they’re away from home. Their offense, in particular, averages 50 fewer yards per game on the road.
I don’t love that linebacker Fred Warner is out for the 49ers, but their defense should still be solid. Despite Brock Purdy missing time and several injuries to their receiving corps and George Kittle, this offense still ranks sixth in the league, and Mac Jones has been a capable fill-in at quarterback. Purdy may suit up for this one, and we’ll know more as kickoff approaches, but either way I’m confident in San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey finally found the end zone last week, and that might be the spark he needs to take off.
I expect a tight game, and it’ll be fascinating to watch the 49ers’ top-rated passing attack go against the Falcons’ elite pass defense. But at home, against an inconsistent Atlanta team traveling on a short week, and laying fewer than a field goal, I really like San Francisco in this spot.
The Pick: 49ers -2.5
Bucs @ Lions (-5.5)
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are one of the best stories of the NFL season so far. They sit at 5-1 and were recently ranked number one in our Week 6 Power Rankings. Tampa Bay has several impressive wins, including victories over the Falcons, Seahawks, and 49ers. Their only loss came by six points to the 4-2 Eagles. They also rank in the top half of the league in both offense and defense.
So why am I picking the Lions as one of the best bets? Despite their loss to the Chiefs on Sunday night, I still believe this is the most complete team in the NFL and my Super Bowl favorite. Both of Detroit’s losses have come on the road, and they will be back in the cozy confines of Ford Field for this one. The Lions currently rank 11th in total offense, but that number jumps significantly at home, where they average nearly 50 more yards per game.
The real reason I’m backing Detroit is the Buccaneers’ health. Sterling Shepard will likely serve as their number one receiver on Sunday with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and rookie standout Emeka Egbuka all expected to be sidelined, along with starting running back Bucky Irving. Add in a banged-up offensive line and a thin secondary, and this is not the same roster that earned those five wins.
The Lions are frustrated with how they played in Kansas City and will be out to make a statement against an injured Tampa Bay squad. Laying 5.5 points does not scare me at all. We’ll take the Lions to bounce back in a big way.
The Pick: Lions -5.5
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