Week 11 was defined by ranked teams pulling themselves out of potential season-crushing trap games. Three different ranked favorites pulled off one-score wins, two of them against unranked opponents, and one needed overtime to survive.
While Indiana, Oregon, and Vanderbilt all escaped with narrow victories, there was still an upset in Virginia, and several other ranked teams put up big wins to strengthen their playoff resumes. Let’s see how everything shook out.
Biggest Games and Upsets of the Week
Indiana 27, Penn State 24
Indiana looked like it was about to take its first loss of the season with under two minutes to play. QB Francisco Mendoza had not thrown a touchdown all game, the Hoosiers had 80 yards to go with 1:51 left, and Penn State seemed poised to pull off the biggest upset of the year with a backup quarterback under center. Instead, Mendoza marched Indiana down the field and found Omar Cooper Jr. in the end zone with 36 seconds remaining to keep the Hoosiers’ undefeated season alive.
Oregon 18, Iowa 16
This one felt like it would be close, and it did not disappoint. Iowa played tough all afternoon, forcing the Ducks to rely heavily on their defense. Oregon escaped with a game-winning field goal with just three seconds left. The difference proved to be a blocked punt that went for a safety in the first quarter, a brutal moment that makes this loss sting even more for the Hawkeyes.
Vanderbilt 45, Auburn 38 (OT)
Vanderbilt’s offense sputtered early, spotting Auburn a first-half lead. But quarterback Diego Pavia completely took over in the second half and overtime, leading the Commodores to four second-half touchdowns and another in the extra period. Vanderbilt improves to 8–2 and stays alive for a major bowl bid.
AP Top 25 Risers and Fallers
Risers
#10 Texas (up 3): The Longhorns get lucky, jumping back into the Top 10 on a bye week.
#17 USC (up 3): The Trojans take care of business against Northwestern and creep closer to the Top 15.
#18 Michigan (up 3): Like Texas, Michigan moves up three spots despite being idle in Week 11.
Fallers
#20 Virginia (down 8): The Cavaliers finally lose a close one after weeks of narrow wins
#19 Louisville (down 5): The Cardinals take a bad overtime loss to Cal, costing them both momentum and a Top 15 ranking.
#12 BYU (down 4): BYU’s first loss is an ugly one to Texas Tech, who jumps into the Top 10 as a result.
Betting Strategy: Adjusting After Week 11
Take the Over on Vanderbilt and Avoid Everything Else
The Commodores are scoring in bunches, but they are far from a sure thing when it comes to winning. Bet on the points, not the outcome.
Iowa Over USC
Iowa showed what it can do against Oregon, and that should carry over. USC feels slightly overranked, and Iowa should not have fallen out of the Top 25 after that performance. This is a great spot to back an unranked underdog.
Virginia Is Regressing to the Mean
The Cavaliers had been living on the edge for weeks, pulling out multiple close wins before the bubble burst against Wake Forest. With Duke and Virginia Tech up next, do not count on a bounceback. This is a team trending the wrong way.
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