The College Football Playoff will feature four Power Four conference champions, one Group of Five champion, and seven at-large teams. With the first CFP rankings set to drop tonight, here is how the race stands as we enter Week 11.
Who’s In: The Top Four
At this stage, the top four teams have more or less punched their tickets to the playoff. Let’s take a look at each contender’s current path.
Ohio State
Undefeated in the Big Ten and boasting one of the nation’s best defenses, the Buckeyes look like a lock. They should cruise through the rest of their schedule, and even a loss to Michigan shouldn’t keep them out of the top four.
Indiana
Indiana has also built a near-bulletproof résumé. Both teams that reach the Big Ten Championship Game will undoubtedly make the playoff, and the Hoosiers sit atop the AP Poll. Even with one more regular-season loss and a setback in the title game, Indiana will be in the field.
Texas A&M
The Aggies are not out of the woods yet, but their playoff odds remain strong. Trips to Missouri and Texas still loom, but even with one loss in that stretch, A&M could secure an at-large bid if they fall short of the SEC Championship Game.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide are rolling again. They sit atop the SEC with four straight wins over ranked opponents. Even with one conference loss, Alabama would almost certainly make the field. With plenty of momentum on offense and a defense rounding into form, Alabama feels like a near-certain playoff team.
Who Controls Their Own Destiny: One- and Two-Loss SEC and Big Ten Teams, Plus Notre Dame
Upper-Tier SEC and Big Ten Teams
Most SEC or Big Ten programs with one or two losses still control their destiny. That group includes Michigan, Washington, USC, Iowa, Oregon, Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. The formula is simple: run the table and you’re in. Finish with two losses and you’ll have a case. Three losses, and you can start packing for a mid-tier bowl game.
Notre Dame
At 6-2, with both losses coming to ranked teams by a combined four points, Notre Dame remains alive. The first CFP rankings will show how the committee values them, but with an easy remaining schedule, the Irish appear to control their own destiny.
Still in the Mix: Big 12 and ACC
The gap between top and middle-tier teams in the Big 12 and ACC is smaller than in the SEC or Big Ten, which means there’s still plenty of chaos left to come.
The Big 12 Race
The conference title will likely come down to BYU, Texas Tech, or Cincinnati. None of the three seem strong enough to earn an at-large bid without winning the league. If BYU runs the table before losing in the championship, there’s an outside chance the Cougars sneak in, but the Big 12 probably sends only one team to the playoff. Saturday’s matchup between BYU and Texas Tech in Lubbock will go a long way toward deciding the Big 12 CFP representative.
The ACC Picture
Six of the conference’s 17 teams are still mathematically alive for the ACC Championship Game: Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU, and Duke. That means more than a third of the league is still in the hunt. But only the conference champion seems likely to make the CFP. As of Week 11, no ACC team remains undefeated overall.
The Wild Card: The Group of Five Champion
The top five ranked conference champions earn automatic bids to the CFP, meaning one Group of Five team will get in. The front-runners are San Diego State, James Madison, Memphis, and North Texas. Odds are the G5 spot will be the highest-rated AAC team, but the race is still wide open.
Who’s Out
Any team with three losses and no path to its conference title game can officially bow out. That includes No. 23 Tennessee, which is now out of any realistic playoff conversation. Miami’s hopes have also faded after a second conference loss. Minnesota, Illinois, and LSU are all out as well.
The first CFP rankings may differ slightly from the AP Poll, but as of now, only about 30 teams remain legitimately alive in the playoff race.
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