Last Week: 2-3
Season Record: 19-19-2
We started off 2-0 and I truly thought this was going to be our first 5-0 week of the season. But then Joey Aguilar threw that 99-yard pick six at the end of the first half of the Tennessee–Alabama game, and it felt like the bad juju hit all three late games. We ended up losing that one, along with our Florida Atlantic +21.5 vs. USF and Utah -3.5 in the Holy War.
We did cash nicely with Louisville, who not only covered the 13.5 but beat Miami outright in the Orange Bowl, and the Ohio Bobcats crushed Northern Illinois just like we expected.
So eight weeks in, we’ve basically kissed our sister and are sitting right at .500. Not ideal, but not dead either. There’s still more than a month left of regular season college football and then the bowl games, where we completely cleaned up last year. A lot of good vibes on the horizon, and it all starts with these five games this weekend. So let’s get into it.
California @ Virginia Tech (-4.5)
Alright, a little glimpse behind the curtain. Each week I go through every game, make note of the ones that immediately stand out, then dig into stats, matchups, quality wins and losses, and plenty of situational factors like travel, bye weeks, and injuries. From there, I narrow it down to the five that check the most boxes for me.
On paper, Cal seems like the easy play here. They are 5-2, while Virginia Tech sits at 2-5 under an interim coach. The Hokies rank 93rd in offense and 94th in defense, so when I saw Tech favored by 4.5, it caught my attention. That line just felt off. The deeper I looked, the more I actually liked the Hokies in a contrarian play.
Cal’s offense is a mess, ranked 111th nationally, and while their defense has held up, their résumé is thin. Their only respectable win was over Minnesota at home, and their two road victories came against 1-7 Oregon State and 1-6 Boston College. Meanwhile, four of Virginia Tech’s five losses have been to teams with winning records, the lone exception being a season opener at South Carolina.
The Hokies are coming off a bye, Cal has to fly across the country after a physical win over UNC, and interim coach Philip Montgomery is an experienced play-caller who will have them ready. Add in dual-threat QB Kyron Drones, and I am backing Virginia Tech in this Friday night spot.
The Pick: Va Tech -4.5
BYU @ Iowa State (-2.5)
Iowa State started the season 5-0 but has stumbled the past two weeks to fall to 5-2. Now they host a red-hot, undefeated BYU team sitting at 7-0. On paper that record looks great, but the Cougars’ résumé is thinner than it appears. Their only truly impressive win came last week at home against 5-2 Utah, and their best road performance was a double-overtime squeaker against 4-3 Arizona.
Both teams are solid on offense and defense, but I like the way this matchup sets up for Iowa State. Their two losses both came away from home, one a respectable setback at 6-1 Cincinnati and the other a puzzling 24-17 defeat at Colorado two weeks ago. Quarterback Rocco Becht had an off game in Boulder two weeks ago, but the Cyclones just enjoyed a much needed bye week, and that extra time to rest and reset should make a big difference. Matt Campbell is one of the best coaches in the Big 12 and will have this squad ready to bounce back.
BYU, on the other hand, has to regroup quickly after one of the most emotional rivalry wins in college football, taking down Utah in the Holy War. Games like that take a toll, and heading into a tough Ames crowd is not the ideal follow-up spot. The Cougars are talented, but this feels like a natural hangover game.
Iowa State is rested, refocused, and should get running back Carsen Hansen back from the concussion that sidelined him the past game and a half. Whether he plays or not, I like the Cyclones to cover this short number at home against a good team but not quite as good as their undefeated record might suggest.
The Pick: Iowa State -2.5
Missouri (+2.5) @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is enjoying one of its best seasons in program history, sitting at 6-1 after an impressive home win against LSU. Their only loss came three weeks ago at No. 4 Alabama, and they used the following bye week to regroup and take down the Tigers. Now they host another Tigers squad, and once again the Commodores are 2.5-point favorites. Vanderbilt ranks top 20 nationally in offense and top 40 in defense, and quarterback Diego Pavia is a legitimate Heisman candidate.
Missouri brings an equally strong résumé. Their only loss of the season also came against Alabama two weeks ago, and that one went down to a field goal. The Tigers rank 11th nationally in total offense and fourth in defense, and they can win in multiple ways. Both teams run the ball well and stop the run, but the spotlight will be on Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy, who ranks third in the nation in rushing. If he finds his rhythm early, it could open things up for the Tigers’ passing game against Vanderbilt’s 93rd-ranked pass defense.
I think this game will be close, but Missouri is the slightly better team overall, and getting 2.5 points feels like solid value.
The Pick: Missouri +2.5
Baylor (+5.5) at Cincinnati
Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield deserves a lot of credit this season. He entered August on one of the hottest seats in the country, yet here the Bearcats are at 6-1, undefeated in Big 12 play, and tied for first in the conference standings. Their only loss came in the opener against Nebraska on a neutral field. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been steady and efficient, helping Cincinnati rank 37th nationally in total offense.
That said, there are a few warning signs. Their schedule has been light, with two wins over winless teams and only one truly solid victory against Iowa State. Baylor, meanwhile, has real firepower. The Bears rank seventh in total offense and first in the nation in passing behind quarterback Sawyer Robertson, the country’s leading passer. Now he gets to face the nation’s 124th-ranked pass defense in what should be a huge mismatch. Robertson will have a big day, and while Cincinnati will move the ball too, I think this line is giving the Bearcats too much respect.
The Pick: Baylor +5.5
Texas A&M @ LSU (+2.5)
LSU lost at Vanderbilt on Saturday, and their fans are not happy. Some are even starting to speculate that Brian Kelly could be on the hot seat. The offense has been stagnant all season, and while quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is extremely talented, he just hasn’t been consistent enough in big spots to deliver every week.
That said, this team is still 5-2, and their two losses came on the road against teams with a combined 12-2 record (Ole Miss and Vanderbilt). They return home to Death Valley for a Saturday night game, and that is always a tough spot for any opponent, even one as good as Texas A&M.
I love what Mike Elko has done with the Aggies, and I think regardless of what happens here, they can still make the CFP and possibly win the SEC. But this is a brutal environment for a road game. A&M is 7-0, but their only truly impressive win was that 41-40 nail-biter at Notre Dame in Week 3. Don’t get me wrong, quarterback Marcel Reed is the real deal and will keep the Aggies in it, but LSU at home as an underdog on a Saturday night in Death Valley? That’s too good to pass up.
The Pick: LSU +2.5
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