Bierman’s Best Bets: NFL Week 10 Picks

Well, we had a nice run. For five straight weeks we cashed more winners than losers, going 11-4 during that stretch. But last week we stumbled, finishing 1-2, and the streak came to an end. And do not get me started on the Texans because they had that game won and covered for most of it before the gritty Broncos stole it late.

Still, like those Broncos, we are gritty too and we are not backing down. We might have lost last week, but we are getting right back on the horse and starting a new streak with this week’s slate. Let’s get into it and see if we can start another strong run.

Last Week 1-2
Season YTD: 15-12

Lions (-7.5) @ Commanders

We took the Lions last week and lost, and guess what? We’re taking them again.

Credit to Minnesota for pulling off the upset, and kudos to second-year QB J.J. McCarthy, who genuinely engineered that win with both his arm and his legs. But I stand by what I said last week: the Lions are one of the three best teams in the league and a legitimate Super Bowl contender come February. Every good team stubs their toe at some point, and we just saw that with Detroit. Dan Campbell won’t tolerate another subpar performance, and I fully expect this group to come out firing on all cylinders in Washington.

Detroit ranks near the top of the league in both rushing and passing, and I expect a heavy dose of the ground game on Sunday for two reasons. First, the Vikings completely shut it down last week, holding the Lions to 65 total rushing yards and Jahmyr Gibbs to just 25. They’ll want to fix that fast. Second, Washington is bottom ten in rush defense, so this sets up perfectly for the Lions’ lethal one-two punch in the backfield.

But the biggest reason I like Detroit here is how bad Washington really is right now. Losing QB Jayden Daniels for the season was devastating, and now the Commanders turn things back over to Marcus Mariota. He’s appeared in four games this year, and while he managed a win against the Raiders, the other three were losses to the Falcons, Cowboys, and Chiefs by an average losing margin of 17 points per defeat. Said another way, when Mariota faces good competition, things get ugly and the Commanders lose by a mountain of points. Even with Daniels at the helm last week, Washington got blown out at home 38-11 by Seattle.

The Lions are angry, motivated, and in bounce-back mode. Against an overmatched Commanders team led by a journeyman quarterback, they’ll take care of business and cover with ease.

The Pick: Lions -7.5

Rams (-4.5) @ 49ers

The 49ers deserve a lot of credit for sitting at 6-3 despite a long list of injuries on both sides of the ball. Backup QB Mac Jones, in particular, has been impressive filling in for Brock Purdy and keeping this team afloat. But when you look closer, while San Francisco has been solid, they have not exactly been dominant. Their schedule tells the real story: four of their six wins have come against the Saints, Cardinals, Falcons, and Giants, teams with a combined record of 9-25. They did have a solid win back in Week 1 against the Seahawks, and their other close victory was a narrow three-point win over this very same Rams team just a month ago.

That will not happen again. The Rams will not allow it, and frankly, they cannot if they plan to win the NFC West. Los Angeles has the number one passing offense in the league and gets to face a below average 49ers secondary. Matthew Stafford has a full arsenal of weapons, and even though there was a brief scare with Puka Nacua last week, all signs point to him being ready to go in San Francisco.

Not only do the Rams have a dynamic offense, but they also rank top ten in total defense. The 49ers deserve praise for staying competitive through all the injuries, but the Rams are simply the better football team right now. I expect them to control this game and win by at least a touchdown. Laying 4.5 points feels like a comfortable play.

Pick: Rams -4.5

Steelers @ Chargers (-3)

The Steelers may sit at 5-3 and in first place in the weak AFC North, but they might be one of the least impressive teams with a winning record in the entire league right now. They do have two nice wins against the 7-2 Colts and 7-2 Patriots, but the Colts win came at home and the Patriots win was way back in Week 3. Their other three wins have been against the Jets, Browns, and Vikings, all mediocre to flat-out bad teams.

They might look like a contender, but here is all you really need to know about this team. The Steelers rank bottom five in both total offense AND total defense. That is almost impossible for a team with a winning record and just proves how much they have been getting by on smoke and mirrors.

Now this average Steelers team travels across the country to face a 6-3 Chargers squad that ranks in the top six in both total offense and total defense. This team is balanced, well coached, and knows how important this home game is to keep pace with Denver in the AFC West race.

Justin Herbert has the second most passing yards in the NFL, and he now gets to face the league’s worst pass defense. With dangerous wideouts Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, along with the underrated but productive tight end Oronde Gadsden, the Chargers offense should have a field day.

The Steelers have been fooling people all season long, but that act will not hold up against a legitimate playoff team on the road. I am taking the Chargers to win comfortably on Sunday night and will happily lay the field goal.

The Pick: Chargers -3

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