Bierman’s Best Bets: NFL Week 8 Picks

We hinted last week that a 3-0 run was coming, and sure enough, we hit it. It has been a strong month overall, going 9-3 over the past four weeks, so hopefully you have been cashing a few tickets along the way.

We have three more picks for you this week, including a rare play for me and my first over/under of the season. There is a good reason for it, and we feel just as confident this week as we did last. So, let’s get into it and hopefully line our pockets once again.

Last Week 3-0
Season YTD: 12-9

Bills @ Panthers UNDER 46.5

I will not hold you in suspense. This is the rare play I mentioned in the opening. I almost never pick over/unders, and I would be surprised if I choose more than one the rest of this season. But this one stood out.

The numbers and history line up too perfectly to ignore. First, let’s give credit where it is due. The Bills have been dominant coming off a bye. Since Josh Allen became the starter in 2018, they are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS.

The only wrinkle here is that most of those games were at home. This week, the Bills travel to Carolina, and the Panthers have yet to lose at home this season. Buffalo’s lone road post-bye game came two years ago at Kansas City, which they won 20-17. So while I was tempted to take the Bills at -7.5, that home-field factor pushed me toward the total instead.

Here is why I like the under. Carolina’s defense is very underrated, ranking seventh overall, eighth against the run, and tenth against the pass. Buffalo’s offense is explosive, but I do anticipate at least a little rust coming off of that bye. Both teams also excel on the ground, ranking first (Bills) and third (Panthers) in rushing yards per game so the clock should move fast.

On top of that, Bryce Young is expected to miss the game, which means Andy Dalton will make his first start of the year. He is certainly a capable fill-in, but he will be tasked with moving the ball against the league’s second ranked pass defense and that will prove difficult.

And finally, here is the clincher. In the Josh Allen era, only once have the Bills played in a post-bye game that totaled more than 46.5 points, and that was way back in 2019. Each of their last five post-bye games has stayed under that number, including that lone road win in KC in 2023 (37 total points).

So while I do not often pick totals, this one checks every box. I will gladly take the under in Carolina on Sunday.

The Pick: Under 46.5

Giants @ Eagles (-7.5)

I actually like the direction the Giants are headed, despite their 2-5 record. They play tough, they play gritty, and quarterback Jaxson Dart looks like the real deal. Running back Cam Skattebo is a human cannonball, and this team never quits. That said, what happened Sunday in Denver was inexcusable and could be tough for them to bounce back from emotionally.

Up 26-8 with six minutes left, they somehow lost the game. It was the first time since 1970 that a team trailing by 18 or more points came back to win in regulation. I will give Dart and company credit for answering back after Denver took the lead, but that kind of collapse lingers. Add in the fact that this is an average offensive team and a poor defensive one, and it is hard to see them turning it around this week.

Now they have to travel to Philadelphia to face a division rival that looks like it may have gotten back on track against the Vikings. The Eagles seemed lost a couple of weeks ago, but after watching them on Sunday, it’s hard not to believe that two-game losing streak was just a blip and that they are about to go on a run.

Yes, I know the Giants beat this same Eagles team 34-17 just two weeks ago, but that was in New York, and everything went wrong for Philadelphia that day. This time it is at the Linc, and revenge will be a major motivator. The Eagles know they cannot afford to drop both divisional games to New York, and they will be locked in from the start.

New York is going to feel that emotional hangover on the road, and I expect the Eagles to take advantage and roll to a comfortable win.

The Pick: Eagles -7.5

Browns @ Patriots (-6.5)    

Congratulations to the Browns on a nice 31-6 win Sunday. That is the good news. The bad news is their record is still 2-5, that win came against one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the offense remains one of the least productive in football.

Handing the reins to rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel is the right move, and he may grow into something special as the year progresses, but he is not there yet. I do like fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who ran for 84 yards and three touchdowns against Miami, but the Dolphins have the worst run defense in the league. This week he faces the Patriots, who rank third in the NFL against the run, so those lanes are going to close quickly in Foxborough.

Outside of Daniel Jones in Indianapolis, there may not be a better quarterback story this season than what Drake Maye is doing for New England. In his sophomore season, he looks calm, poised, and under control. He ranks eighth in both passing yards and passing touchdowns and has thrown only two interceptions all year.

Cleveland’s defense looks solid statistically, but it has been a different story on the road. The Browns D gives up nearly 45 more yards per game away from home and almost 30 points per contest. In their three road games this season, they have been outscored 98-36. Their only offensive performance above 17 points came last week against the awful Dolphins.

Do not let that win distract you from reality. The Browns are still bad, the Patriots are playing good football, and at home New England should have no trouble covering a spread under a touchdown.

Pick: Patriots -6.5

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