Five NBA Teams with the Widest Range of Outcomes in 2025–26

There are teams we can confidently pencil in near the top of the standings. Denver, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, and Orlando should all be firmly in the mix for upper seeds in their respective conferences.

At the other end, some clubs are already locked into the lottery or a low play-in ceiling, like the Hornets, Blazers, and Kings. Sitting just above them are the predictable middle-tier teams that seem destined for the play-in range or a sixth seed, with only a narrow gap between their floor and ceiling.

This piece focuses on the other end of the spectrum, the teams with the widest gap between realistic regular season outcomes. For these squads, a broad range of win-total predictions can be justified depending on how their key variables break.

Understanding variance matters because it reveals where chaos might hit the standings and where opportunity lies for bettors, analysts, and fans. These are the teams most likely to swing the playoff picture, surprise with a 50-win surge, or completely fall apart. In a league where one injury, trade, or breakout season can change everything, these five franchises represent the NBA’s biggest wildcards for 2025–26.

San Antonio Spurs

Picked by some as a division winner, the Spurs could just as easily miss the playoffs if Victor Wembanyama sits out more than a handful of games. The range of outcomes for this team is not just about Wemby, either.

Dylan Harper could be a long-term project who struggles to impact winning as a rookie, or he could quickly carve out a role alongside De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. If Castle’s shot starts to fall, he could easily become a reliable third option, but he also would not be the first player to experience a sophomore slump.

Fox is already set to miss time to start the season. Wembanyama looks to have taken a galactic leap, dunking like Shaq and showing noticeably more upper body strength. His presence alone makes San Antonio fascinating, but the question remains: how far can he carry this group?

Do not rule out the possibility of another win-now move during the season if Wembanyama delivers the kind of dominance many expect.

Philadelphia 76ers

What can you say about the NBA’s most frustrating franchise? On paper, a core of Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, and a high lottery pick should be enough to contend in a weakened Eastern Conference.

In reality, health concerns surround both Embiid and George, while the Maxey–Jared McCain backcourt fit remains a question. Nick Nurse’s stock has taken a hit after a turbulent exit from Toronto and a lifeless first season in Philadelphia.

It may sound far-fetched, but if Embiid and George stay healthy, the Sixers could still make a Finals run. Embiid is not far removed from his MVP season, and Maxey has emerged as a legitimate star.

Just as easily, though, they could repeat last year’s disappointment. There is no guarantee Embiid and George even combine for 80 games, and a supporting cast of Maxey, Quentin Grimes, Kelly Oubre, and VJ Edgecombe likely caps their ceiling around ninth in the East.

Dallas Mavericks

Kyrie Irving is expected to miss most of the regular season. Anthony Davis has averaged only 53.9 games over the past seven years and has been an All-Star just once since 2021.

Cooper Flagg is a rookie, but not an ordinary one. His defense, instincts, and playmaking could make him an immediate winning player alongside Davis, Klay Thompson, and D’Angelo Russell.

If Davis stays healthy, the Mavericks could remain within reach of a top-six seed by the time Irving returns. A lineup built around Irving, Davis, and Flagg, supported by a deep rotation, would be a tough postseason matchup for anyone.

Just as possible, though, Davis could miss extended time, Flagg may need more development than expected, and the offense could slump into the league’s bottom tier. Dallas has a plausible range from missing the play-in entirely to reaching the Conference Finals.

New Orleans Pelicans

Sportsbooks are understandably low on the Pels, giving them a win total of 30.5. New Orleans might not have the ceiling of the Mavericks or Sixers, but there’s a world where this team is surprisingly competitive, powered by a slimmed-down Zion Williamson. 

The Pelicans have made only two playoff appearances and posted just two winning seasons since 2017–18. A core of Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Kevon Looney, and Jordan Poole is not going to draw many title bets, yet if everything breaks right, this group could push past 45 wins.

Murphy has fringe All-Star potential. Williamson’s durability remains a question until proven otherwise. Jones is among the league’s premier wing defenders and brings consistency every night.

The floor is a nightmare scenario where the Hawks get sent a high lottery pick. Still, it is not far-fetched to imagine the Pelicans landing somewhere in the six-to-seven range in the West if health and chemistry align.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks’ variance begins and ends with Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP could go nuclear, knowing he may need another dominant season to keep Milwaukee out of the play-in. Averages of 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists would hardly be surprising.

The other scenario is less flattering. Giannis could wear down trying to carry a thin roster, with limited help from his supporting cast leading to fatigue, injuries, and missed time.

There is even a world where he requests a trade before the deadline, leaving the Bucks with one of the weakest rosters in the league. Given the softness of the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee has a plausible path to a top-four seed purely on Giannis’s greatness. Just as easily, though, this team could slide into the lottery if the strain becomes too great.

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