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NBA Southwest Division Preview 2025–26: Predictions, Win Totals, and Team Breakdowns
Only two teams are projected to be above .500 in the Southwest Division. It’s still a group that provides a lot of intrigue, with Kevin Durant arriving in Houston, Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio, and Cooper Flagg primed for his NBA debut as a Maverick.
There’s also the small matter of Zion Williamson and Ja Morant in New Orleans and Memphis, respectively.
Houston Rockets
Projected starting lineup:
PG: Aaron Holiday
SG: Amen Thompson
SF: Kevin Durant
PF: Jabari Smith Jr.
C: Alperen Sengun
Key bench contributors: Steven Adams, Clint Capela, Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Okogie, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason
Fred VanVleet’s season-ending injury markedly lowers Houston’s ceiling. Ime Udoka’s team is going to be a tough opponent throughout the regular season, but there’s an alarming lack of ball-handling on this roster.
Durant answers some of their half-court questions in the playoffs. There’s a dependence on Amen Thompson taking a further leap as a shot creator and becoming a better jump shooter. This also looks like a roster that’s overly packed with fours and fives.
It’s not a case of the Rockets being bad. This team is just a candidate to underachieve relative to preseason expectations. The under is the way to go on their win total, and it’s far from a foregone conclusion that they are a top-six team.
Prediction: 48-34
Divisional projection: 1st
Ceiling: Conference Finals
San Antonio Spurs
Projected starting lineup:
PG: De’Aaron Fox
SG: Stephon Castle
SF: Harrison Barnes
PF: Victor Wembanyama
C: Luke Kornet
Key bench contributors: Dylan Harper, Kelly Olynyk, Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell
With VanVleet out for the year and Victor Wembanyama likely to take another leap, San Antonio is an intriguing division winner bet. The Spurs have perhaps the widest range of outcomes of any team in the league.
Wemby might go nuclear, taking the league by storm and entering the MVP race. It could also end up being another developmental year with Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle not yet to really contribute to winning.
It’s not clear who San Antonio’s third-best player is. That might not matter if Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox are All-NBA candidates, but there’s playoff-missing downside with this group. I still think it’s more likely they’re a top-six team, though.
Prediction: 47-35
Divisional projection: 2nd
Ceiling: Second-round exit
Dallas Mavericks
Projected starting lineup:
PG: D’Angelo Russell
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Cooper Flagg
PF: Anthony Davis
C: Dereck Lively
Key bench contributors: Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington, Dante Exum, Naji Marshall, Max Christie
Flagg could be set for an all-timer of a rookie season. He’s going to get plenty of on-ball reps with Kyrie Irving sidelined, and he should be a key contributor in an elite defense.
Like Houston, Dallas has a backcourt shortage. D’Angelo Russell isn’t the answer. This offense could grind to a halt in the halfcourt, and if Davis misses time, it could be another lost year for the Mavs.
The under is the best option when it comes to their win total. It’s easy to get sucked into the hypothetical early Irving return, and wonder if Flagg can be a winning player immediately, but those scenarios are ultimately far-fetched with how strong the west is. Don’t be surprised if Dallas finishes last in the division.
Prediction: 35-47
Divisional projection: 4th
Ceiling: Second-round exit
Memphis Grizzlies
Projected starting lineup:
PG: Ja Morant
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Jaylen Wells
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr.
C: Santi Aldama
Key bench contributors: Jock Landale, Zach Edey, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., Vince Williams Jr., John Konchar, GG Jackson
Most of Memphis’ frontcourt players are already on the shelf. Desmond Bane is in Orlando. Morant seems a long way from the fringe MVP contender we saw only a couple of years ago.
Despite winning 48 games last time around, Memphis feels like little more than a longshot to make the playoffs. The Grizz’s knack for finding rotation players out of nowhere won’t be enough to elevate them above the Spurs, Rockets, or several other teams in the Western Conference.
Prediction: 30-52
Divisional projection: 5th
Ceiling: Play-in tournament
New Orleans Pelicans
Projected starting lineup:
PG: Jordan Poole
SG: Herb Jones
SF: Trey Murphy III
PF: Zion Williamson
C: Yves Missi
Key bench contributors: Jordan Hawkins, Saddiq Bey, Derik Queen, Kevon Looney, Jose Alvarado
The Pels were featured in our best win total bets. It might be an 11-win leap for New Orleans to hit its over, but it’s unlikely as much will go wrong as it did last term.
One thing we know is the Pels have to be going all-out to win after their bizarre decision to trade away their 2026 first. Williamson looks in his best shape since he was at Duke. Better health from key players, most notably Trey Murphy III, gives New Orleans the chance to be in the mix for an upper-end play-in seed.
I will be hammering their over. It’s hard to have too much faith in the Pels, considering how often things seem to go south with this franchise, but their preseason odds are harsh compared to the amount of talent on the roster.
Prediction: 40-42
Divisional projection: 3rd
Ceiling: Second-round exit
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