Bierman’s Best Bets: Week 6 College Football Picks

Last Week: 4-1
Season Record: 12-12-1

Ok, now we are talking. Last week is closer to what we expect every week and we finally hit on all cylinders. I missed with NC State, but hit fairly comfortably with our other four. So it feels great to be back to .500 and let’s start building something nice from here. 

Last week we introduced our “Spread-o-meter” to take a closer look at teams going undefeated so far against the spread and those who have yet to cover a game. 

Heading into week 6, the undefeated ATS teams with four or more games played are Memphis, Louisiana Tech, Texas Tech, Utah State, Mississippi State, and James Madison.

On the flip side, here’s the list of teams yet to cover a spread: Georgia, Clemson, SMU, Sam Houston State, Penn State, and Georgia State. 

Let’s get into this week’s card and see if any of these teams make our plays.

Wisconsin (+16.5) at Michigan

If you’ve read my columns before you know I’m a huge Michigan fan, and because of that I rarely pick their games. But in this case, I really like Wisconsin to cover the spread.

That is not easy for me to say, because I’ve also been vocal about Wisconsin’s head coach Luke Fickell and how I think he’s in over his head in Madison. He’s sitting at .500 in his tenure there and the program has clearly taken a step back. Still, with a brutal stretch ahead on their schedule, this feels like one they can at least keep close.

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood has definitely been an upgrade compared to last year, but he’s still raw and learning. Their run game is the real strength, ranked top 10 nationally at 257 yards per game, and transfer Justice Haynes has been one of the most impactful transfer portal additions in the country after arriving from Alabama. But Wisconsin owns the second-best run defense in the nation, giving up just 50 yards per game, so this matchup is strength against strength and it should be fascinating to watch.

Wisconsin is no longer the power that battled for Big Ten titles every year, but they’re not a bottom feeder either. Michigan is solid, but I don’t think they’re quite as good as their record suggests. This is a lot of points for a conference game. The heavy run styles will shorten the game, Underwood is bound to make a few mistakes, and while I like Michigan to win, I’ll take Wisconsin and the points.

The Pick: Wisconsin +16.5

Washington at Maryland (+5.5)

We’ll stay in the Big Ten and head to College Park for this one. I really like Maryland this year and what freshman quarterback Malik Washington has been doing. He’s already thrown for 1,038 yards, 8 touchdowns, and just one interception while leading the Terps to a 4-0 start.

Across the field, Washington also has a talented young quarterback in Demond Williams, and the Huskies have started the season strong too. Both their offense and defense sit in the top 50 nationally, and Jedd Fisch is showing signs of getting the program back to that 2023 College Football Playoff form.

But here’s where the edge tilts to Maryland. They’re coming off a bye, fresh and rested, while Washington just endured a physical, emotionally draining loss to Ohio State. Now the Huskies have to travel 3,000 miles for a Saturday afternoon kick against a very capable opponent. For good measure, the Terps are also second in the nation in turnover margin at +2 per game. Give me the home team and the points.

The Pick: Maryland +5.5

Ohio (-14.5) at Ball State

I have typically had success backing good MAC teams laying double digits against the cellar dwellers. Yes it can backfire as we saw when I took Toledo two weeks ago and they lost outright to Western Michigan. But last week we got back on track with Toledo covering easily against Akron, and I am sticking with the formula again here.

This week takes us to Muncie, Indiana, where Ball State is just plain bad. The Cardinals are 1-3 and rank second to last in the entire country in offensive production, averaging only 225 yards per game. That is despite facing just one defense in their first four games ranked above 80th nationally in yards allowed. If they could not move the ball against that slate, they won’t suddenly find the magic switch this weekend.

On the other side, Ohio has the best quarterback in the MAC in Parker Navarro. He is more than just a passer, and when you combine his play with a top 50 rushing attack, this Bobcats offense is balanced and tough to stop. They draw a Ball State defense that struggles badly against the run, which should let Ohio dictate the pace.

With Navarro controlling tempo, the ground game pumping, and their defense stifling the Cardinals, this has all the makings of a blowout.

The Pick: Ohio -14.5

Kansas State at Baylor (-6.5)

Baylor ranks sixth in the nation in total offense. Kansas State sits way down at 111th. And that disparity alone should be the difference in this game.

Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been nothing short of spectacular, leading the country in both passing yards (1,713) and touchdowns (17). At this point, he’s a legitimate Heisman frontrunner.

The Bears run a high-tempo passing attack that’s tough to contain. Credit to Kansas State’s secondary as they’ve only allowed 151 yards per game through the air,  but that number is padded by matchups against Army and a run-heavy Arizona team. Last week’s win over UCF looked solid on the scoreboard, but the Knights don’t test you through the air the way Baylor will.

Avery Johnson is a very capable quarterback, and I think Kansas State is a little better than its 2-3 record suggests. But going on the road to Waco against an explosive Baylor offense is a different challenge. With the spread sitting under a touchdown, I’m comfortable laying the points with the Bears.

The Pick: Baylor -6.5\

Texas (-6.5) at Florida

If you’ve been reading me since the start of the season, you know how much I ripped Texas and Arch Manning for those less than inspiring performances against San Jose State and UTEP. So yes, beating Sam Houston State 55–0 isn’t exactly headline-worthy, but it mattered. It gave the Longhorns some badly needed confidence, and it looked like Manning finally found his rhythm. Add in a bye week to rest and reset, and Texas heads into Gainesville in a much better spot.

Despite the early season sluggish-ness, their only loss came by a touchdown at No. 1 Ohio State in Columbus. Beyond that, Texas ranks top 30 in total offense and No. 2 nationally in total defense, which is a nice balance to bring into a matchup like this.

Florida, meanwhile, has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country. DJ Lagway has been unrecognizable compared to last season, Billy Napier is coaching on fumes, and it feels unlikely he survives the year. The Gators still have pride and are also fresh off a bye, but the cracks are obvious. Lagway threw for just 61 yards against Miami and that obviously won’t cut it against this defense.

I think this is the week Texas finally turns the corner. Manning looks sharp, the defense locks down Lagway and company, and the Swamp crowd goes from loud to restless. Texas -6.5 feels like it could be the steal of the week.

The Pick: Texas -6.5

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