Big Ten Football Power Rankings: Week 5 Outlook & Predictions

Through Week 4, the Big Ten carries some NCAA weight with five teams owning the AP Top 20: Ohio State (No. 1), Penn State (No. 3), Oregon (No. 6), Indiana (No. 11) and Michigan (No. 19). The SEC may own the broadest overall ranked footprint, but the Big Ten’s title ceiling is a real threat, with changing narratives and led by Ryan Day’s Buckeyes who refuse to go away sitting at No. 1, not to mention two real contenders in the AP Top 10 with Penn State and Oregon, and a surprise jolt from Indiana, where Cal transfer QB Fernando Mendoza has surged into the Heisman conversation and is pushing his team into that Top 10 overall. Here’s my Big 10 power rankings after four weeks of the 2025 season.

1) Ohio State (3-0, 0-0, AP: No. 1)

The Buckeyes opened with a solid win over then-No. 1 Texas (14–7), followed by blowouts of Grambling (70–0) and Ohio (37–9) that made the Big Ten and AP No. 1 rankings feel spot on. In week 5 we find them on the road against new conference peer and undefeated Washington. The Buckeye defense hasn’t allowed a red-zone point yet and the offense keeps getting special plays from all-everything WR Jeremiah Smith. Check out this week’s AP Rankings for a deeper look.

2) Penn State (3-0, 0-0, AP: No. 3)

Three methodical home wins, including shutouts of FIU (34–0) and a 52–6 rout of Villanova, set up a visit from ESPN in Week 5 at the White Out against Oregon. The defense has lived on negative plays, and special teams have been steady. The lack of drama so far is the point. This is a team arriving at Week 5 healthy and sharp.

3) Oregon (4-0, 1-0, AP: No. 6)

Dante Moore’s offense just demolished rival Oregon State 41-7 with four TD passes, capping a four-game start that has looked fast and efficient. They’ve handled business weekly and now walk into the Penn State decibel test as a real measuring stick. This very well might be the toughest contest to call in a weekend full of great games. 

4) Washington (3-0, 0-0, AP: NR)

The Huskies’ late-game gear showed in a 59–24 Apple Cup surge with RB Jonah Coleman piling on scores and WR Omari Evans landing a 59-yard strike. They’ve scored in waves, but Ohio State’s visit will tell us if that speed travels against elite corners. The profile is explosive with a coming-of-age barometer on deck.

5) Indiana (4-0, 1-0, AP: No. 11)

The Hoosiers didn’t just beat Illinois, they unloaded 63–10, with Fernando Mendoza going 21-for-23 with five TDs and now climbing the Heisman rankings. The Hoosier defense gave up only 161 total yards, and were quite formidable in the rout. Saturday night re-wrote their ceiling and justifies the jump in all rankings. At Iowa on Saturday, this could be a redefining game for both programs.

6) USC (4-0, 2-0, AP: No. 21)

Jayden Maiava threw three TDs and Waymond Jordan rushed for 157 yards in a 45–31 win over Michigan State. The Trojans are 4-0 with two league wins and a growing Maiava-to-Makai Lemon connection. They may sit tied atop the conference right now, but the question will be pass protection on the road. Illinois will test that Saturday and the Illini need a redemption game so it will be an interesting contest to watch.

7) Michigan (3-1, 1-0, AP: No. 19)

At Nebraska, Michigan’s run game (286 yards), seven-sack pass rush, and a defense that would not budge in the second half carried a 30–27 grinder. Justice Haynes’ long TD flipped momentum and the front seven closed. It wasn’t pretty, but it was a road answer that stabilized them after a wobbly September start. The Wolverines are off this week and come back in action Oct 4 vs Wisconsin.

8) Maryland (4-0, 1-0, AP: NR)

True freshman Malik Washington authored a 27–10 road win at Wisconsin (265 pass yards, 3 total TD), while the defense rang up six sacks and two blocks. That’s organizational competence plus some serious star flashes. A 4-0 start with a statement in Madison belongs in the league’s top third. Off until the first weekend of October when the Terps travel to Washington.

9) Iowa (3-1, 1-0, AP: NR)

Mark Gronowski ran for three TDs in a 38-28 league-opening win at Rutgers, and the Hawkeyes again leaned on field position and timely red-zone defense. It’s a familiar script, but it travels, and Indiana has shown they don’t roll over. I am really liking this weekend’s game for a tight contest. Bet the moneyline and pick your favorite.

10) Illinois (3-1, 0-1, AP: No. 23)

A 3–0 start dissolved in Bloomington, where the Illini were outgained 579–161 and quarterback Luke Altmyer apologized publicly afterward. The response against USC will tell us whether Week 4 was a one-off or a trend. 

11) Minnesota (2-1, 0-0, AP: NR)

The Gophers have leaned defense and game control, and now face Rutgers after the Knights popped explosives even in defeat to Iowa. This roster can win close, low-variance games. They slot here because we’ve seen the floor, not yet the ceiling.

12) Michigan State (3-1, 0-1, AP: NR)

The Spartans are 3-1 after the USC loss, showing some vertical punch (Omari Kelly 133 yards) but there are serious tackling issues when in space. The night was overshadowed by LB Wayne Matthews III’s scary injury before halftime (he later gave a thumbs-up and had motor skills intact, per reports). A bye week comes at a needed time.

13) Rutgers (3-1, 0-1, AP: NR)

A 3-0 start ended with that 38-28 home loss to Iowa, where special teams whiffed and penalties undercut a lively offense. The road trip to Minnesota is the identity check. They’ve looked better on the perimeter, but situational discipline cost them.

14) Nebraska (3-1, 0-1, AP: NR)

The Huskers went toe-to-toe with Michigan in a 30–27 loss, winning time of possession and first downs but surrendering big plays and seven sacks. It’s progress wrapped in frustration. They feel close, not finished.

15) Purdue (2-2, 0-1, AP: NR)

Notre Dame’s 56-30 onslaught exposed tackling and coverage issues and pushed the Boilermakers back to .500. Jadarian Price’s four TDs, including a 100-yard KR, told the story. Purdue’s offense showed life, but the defense wasn’t ready for big-play speed.

16) Wisconsin (2-2, 0-1, AP: NR)

Maryland’s 27–10 win in Madison highlighted protection and special-teams problems, and starter Billy Edwards Jr. exited early. The crowd’s displeasure said the rest. Until the Badgers clean up mistakes, they live here near the bottom of the rankings.

17) Northwestern (1-2, 0-1, AP: NR)

The Wildcats fell 34-14 to Oregon on Sept. 13 and now host UCLA. The offense has struggled to sustain drives against ranked speed. Northwestern’s next two weeks (UCLA, ULM) are about stabilizing and winning .

18) UCLA (0-3, 0-0, AP: NR)

An 0-3 start led to DeShaun Foster’s firing and Tim Skipper’s interim tag. Defensive coordinator Ikaika Malloe was also dismissed as the Bruins reset before traveling to Northwestern. The record and turmoil put them last until we see a response.

Week 5 Hot Five

Oregon at Penn State (Sat., 7:30 ET, NBC)

No. 2 vs No. 3 in our stack: Oregon’s four-game efficiency meets a PSU defense built to squeeze timing, in a White Out that historically boosts Penn State a tier. ESPN GameDay confirmed the scene. Oddsmakers have PSU a short favorite right around -3 on most books.

Ohio State at Washington (Sat., 3:30 ET)

No. 1 at No. 4: the Buckeyes’ clean three-game start and top-shelf defense get a perimeter speed test against the Huskies’ fourth-quarter surges. This is a résumé anchor for either playoff path.

USC at Illinois (Sat., 12:00 ET, FOX)

No. 6 at No. 10: USC’s rhythm offense vs. an Illinois front searching for answers after Indiana’s blitz. Body-clock kickoff (11 a.m. CT) is a small wrinkle, but trench pressure is the decider. Big Noon is on site.

Indiana at Iowa (Sat., 3:30 ET)

No. 5 at No. 9: Indiana’s quick-game accuracy and sudden explosiveness now face Iowa’s field-position gravity. We’ll learn if the Hoosiers’ breakout has legs.

Rutgers at Minnesota (Sat., 12:00 ET, BTN)

No. 13 at No. 11: Rutgers’ chunk plays must survive a Minnesota pace-control plan. It’s a September hinge game for both teams’ bowl math. Expect a one-score difference at the end.

Hot Players on the Rise

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

21-of-23, 5 TD in the 63–10 demolition of Illinois. Accuracy and RPO timing were lethal.

Malik Washington, QB, Maryland

265 pass yards, 3 total TD at Wisconsin. Poise travels. Six sacks and two blocked kicks from his defense helped the cause.

Jayden Maiava & Makai Lemon, USC

Maiava with 3 TD passes, Waymond Jordan rushing for 157, and Lemon adding 127 receiving yards as USC dropped 45 on MSU.

Players on the Bubble / Injury Watch

Wayne Matthews III, LB, Michigan State

Carted off before halftime at USC. Gave a thumbs-up and postgame updates noted motor skills intact. Monitor status through the bye.

Billy Edwards Jr., QB, Wisconsin

Exited early vs. Maryland. The offense sputtered afterward in a 27–10 loss.

Week 5 Big Ten Betting Odds (as of Sept. 21)

Check the local book to see what’s changed. This weekend my gut says Penn State at home with the ESPN crew pumping it up is the way to go.

• Oregon at Penn State: Consensus PSU -3 to -3.5 range, O/U ~52.5
  
• Ohio State at Washington: OSU -9.5, some outlets had double digits earlier
  
• USC at Illinois: Trojans short favorite (-4.5 to -5.5 window)
  
• Indiana at Iowa: FanDuel opening had Indiana -6.5 road favorite (reported by IU beat)
  
• Rutgers at Minnesota: Minnesota around -4.5
  
• UCLA at Northwestern: Northwestern -6.5, O/U 46.5

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