AFC West Divisional Preview & Predictions

The AFC West has belonged to the Chiefs for almost a decade, but the gap is closing. Kansas City’s dynasty still looms large, yet the Chargers are pushing for that long-awaited playoff win, Denver is building momentum off a surprising 2024, and the Raiders are banking on a veteran quarterback and some new young faces to spark a turnaround.

With the preseason winding down, it’s time to size up the AFC West, what this race could look like, and the biggest storylines to watch heading into Week 1.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a tough 40-22 Super Bowl loss to the Jalen Hurts-led Philadelphia Eagles. There’s always a worry that a Super Bowl loss can lead to a following season hangover, and with the Chiefs playing in one of the stronger divisions in the NFL, fans are right to wonder if the end is near. 

While it is true that the core of this team’s past success is definitely starting to age (Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones and Travis Kelce are all 30+ as of September 17th), they are still a stacked roster with Super Bowl aspirations predicated on an Andy Reid-designed offense.

Breakout Player To Watch: Xavier Worthy, WR

Xavier Worthy showed off his speed in the 2024-2025 season, working as a home run threat both on go routes and off jet sweeps and quick screens. Patrick Mahomes has been looking for a stud #1 WR since the departure of Tyreek Hill, and while many expected Rashee Rice to step into that role, his suspension and off-field issues make Worthy the more likely candidate at this stage.

Is Kelce Still Bought In?

There’s no need to beat around the bush: Travis Kelce didn’t look great last year.

Not one to mince words, Kelce has been open about how he let things distract him, how he still has a bad taste in his mouth from the Super Bowl loss, and how he needs to do better. But is that realistic?

Kelce’s 35 years old, has played a punishing style of tight end, and to be honest, the off-field distractions aren’t likely to subside as the fiance of Taylor Swift. There’s a chance the season starts sluggish for Kelce and we see him fade into the background. His days of being an elite, game-changing TE appear to be over, but I believe he will still be productive for this Chiefs offense.

The Verdict

While they are certainly no longer as intimidating or dominant as they once were, this is still a fairly stacked roster with the best coach in the game and a team that knows how to win. I’m not betting against them quite yet.

2025 Projected Record: 12-5 (Season O/U: 11.5)

2025 Projected AFC West Division Ranking: 1st

Los Angeles Chargers

Jim Harbaugh has quickly built the offense he envisioned, with Justin Herbert still at the helm, and a pair of bruising running backs in Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris joining the fray. The Chargers are a team that seem to always have high expectations, and 2025 is no different.

While the run game got a facelift, running backs don’t play defense. There are questions at every level on that side of the ball, especially in their defensive backfield. If the Chargers’ pass defense can’t keep opponents out of the endzone, the run game will quickly become useless. This could be their Achilles heel all season long and will be interesting to watch.

Impact Free Agent Signing: Mekhi Becton, OG

Mekhi Becton is more talented than his career arc suggests, though his time in Philadelphia shows what he can achieve when healthy. He is a stout run blocker who can open holes and provide Hampton and Harris clear lanes to the second level. Adding Becton to a line with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt makes this OL very good and should help the offense gain yards and put up points.

Position To Watch: Cornerback

There’s no big name currently at the cornerback position for the Chargers, and it’s tough to forecast how this group will play. The presumptive #1 is Donte Jackson, a free agent signing from Pittsburgh, but Jackson’s actually a much better run defender than coverage corner, and if he’s their pass coverage anchor, this defense could have some issues.

The Verdict

The bottom line for this team is simple. The offense should be fine, built around the run with Herbert able to sling it when needed. The real question is the defense. If the pass rush shows up and the corners hold their own, the Chargers can contend. If not, it could be another disappointing year in the city of angels.

2025 Projected Record: 9-8 (Season O/U: 9.5)

2025 AFC West Division Ranking: 3rd

Denver Broncos

Broncos fans should be excited for the season ahead, and it’s not just because of Bo Nix.

This team’s defense was top 3 in points allowed and led the league in sacks last season, and they only get better, adding several new pieces such as LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga from the 49ers, and rookie CB Jahdae Barron who they snagged in the draft.  

Nix had a very nice rookie season and expectations are high, but for this team to take the next step he’ll need to avoid a sophomore slump. His preseason action didn’t provide much of a glimpse, so opening weekend will have to be the first litmus test for whether Nix is real or not.

Impact Free Agent Signing: Evan Engram, TE

Outside of the aforementioned Greenlaw and Hufanga, Evan Engram is the biggest FA signing for Denver, and he is lining up to play a huge role in Denver’s offense. The Broncos have lacked a legitimate receiving tight end since Julius Thomas, and adding a short-to-medium yardage safety blanket for Bo Nix will give Denver the ability to sustain long drives more effectively. Expect big reception numbers out of Engram in 2025.

Who Ends Up Being the Impact Running Back?

J.K. Dobbins jumped over from the divisional rival Chargers after a strong 2024 in LA, but Dobbins has a lengthy injury history and is by no means a guaranteed, season-long starter. Rookie RJ Harvey had a promising preseason, and this position battle throughout the season will be compelling to watch.

I personally expect Harvey to slowly pull carries from Dobbins as the season goes on and will entrench himself as the unquestioned starter heading into 2026.

The Verdict

This is a young, hungry, and dangerous team that could surprise not only in the division but across the conference. If they hit their stride, nobody will want to see them come playoff time.

2025 Projected Record: 11-6 (Season O/U: 9.5)

2025 AFC West Division Ranking: 2

Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith is the latest QB in the Raider carousel after coming over from Seattle for a 3rd round pick. Reuniting with new head coach Pete Carroll, the Raiders are counting on Smith’s veteran leadership to make this team more competitive, and perhaps even fight for a playoff spot deep into the season. 

Vegas has potential, but breaking through in this division will not be easy. Rookie Ashton Jeanty and second-year standout Brock Bowers give them two phenomenal pieces to build around, yet the offensive line and wide receiver group remain real concerns that could limit how explosive this offense becomes. The defense looks stronger on paper than most expect, though, and if the offense can hold up its end, the Raiders could surprise.

Position To Watch: Right Guard

The Raiders are currently slated to move 2nd year player Jackson Powers-Johnson from center to right guard as they look to fill a massive gap on that line. JPJ was one of the few bright spots from last year’s team, and while he’s more natural at center, he still has genuine Pro Bowl potential at guard.

Wide Receiver Drama on the Horizon

The Raiders’ wide receiver room has become one of the bigger storylines heading into the season. Jakobi Meyers was expected to be the clear number one with Davante Adams gone, but things got messy when Meyers pushed for a new deal. At the same time, Amari Cooper makes his return in silver and black, and rookie Jack Bech is already turning heads with his tough, physical style that looks tailor-made for the slot.

The likely outcome? Meyers eventually gets paid and stays put, Cooper provides only a modest boost, and Bech has a steady rookie year

The Verdict

With Carroll as head coach, a veteran quarterback, several dynamic offensive players and an underrated defense, I expect this team to be much improved from last year. But in a loaded division, that still might not be good enough to leave the cellar.

2025 Projected Record: 7-10 (Season O/U: 6.5)

2025 AFC West Division Ranking: 4

Final Thoughts

The AFC West might be the hardest division to call this year. With Mahomes still looming, Harbaugh stirring things up, Denver on the rise, and Vegas trying to claw its way back, this division is as competitive as any in football. While I expect the Chiefs to win their tenth consecutive West title, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if any of the other teams snuck up, even the Raiders.

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